In the past, I have mentioned the concept of preempting a
larger event by starting a smaller one; much like the concept of a backfire to
prevent a larger forest fire... the analogy I've used in the past!
Yesterday, I talked to the issue of Iran opening a second front on the Syrian rebels
by employing Hezbollah and how much of a gamble that might to Iran 's overall
status in the region.
So, when the events of today took place in Iraq , I couldn't help but contemplate, again,
why would Iran
allow such an event to take place?
Now, the assumption here is the concept that Iran
has some level of influence over the Iraq government and as such, they
had some level of input to the attack on the Sunni protestors.
Do I truly believe Iran
has the ability to influence such an event in Iraq ?
Yes.... I do!!!
The Sunni protest / demonstrations / have been increasing
since December of last year and I would have a very hard time accepting the
fact Iran had no say so on how the Iraq
government should deal with these events.
It's my opinion the Iranian leadership influenced the
"plan" Iraq came up with to deal with the Sunni threats, but what the
Iranian "goal" was ...........well.......that is where my theory gets
interesting.
Let, me get straight to the point.
It is my belief Iran
has calculated a "backfire" to
preempt any Sunni support from Iraq
moving into Syria .
I Believe Iran
anticipated the potential game changer Hezbollah might create in Syria and that would most likely draw additional
Sunni support from Iraq into
Syria .
The best way to prevent this would be to draw Iraqi Sunni
unit's into a controlled event on Iraqi land.
Does this sound far fetched?
Let me ask a question in order to answer a question?
Just how paranoid has Iran become?
To what level is Iran
willing to go in order to salvage their grip on Syria ?
More importantly..... what does Iran
have to lose by preempting events in Iraq they know are going to happen
in the near future?
Why wait?
If we accept my theory on events in Iraq , then the next important question becomes;
what's next for Iraq ?
Forrest Fire Fighters will tell you there is always a risk
with setting " backfires"!!!
What if the "backfire in Iraq .....backfires????
History is full of examples of plans hatched in desperation
that failed and sometimes even failed in disastrous fashion!!
Is that what is going to take place in Iraq ?
