Tuesday, July 24, 2012

















IS IRAN FINALLY PLAYING IT'S HAND?

This press announcement by Masoud Jazayeri is interesting.

It is my understanding,  this is the first open press release, if you can call
the Fars News agency open, where Iran warns other Arab states to stay out of
the events taking place in Syria.

The mostly muted microphone from Tehran has been more than unusual over the
past sixteen months of conflict in Syria.

Most governments understand explicitly the strategic importance of Syria to
Iran.

It's for that exact reason the mostly silent response from Tehran on Syria
has been puzzling.

Iran's support to Assad's government is undeniable, but the open criticism
public information campaign by Iran has been virtually nonexistent. 

 So why this bold statement now and why such a precise message to Saudi?

I'm not sure the Iranian leadership was has ever been really convinced Assad
would fall.

With the events of the past week and the feedback Tehran must be receiving
from its operatives in Syria that thought process may have just officially
changed.

I would be willing to bet Iran has been contemplating Assad's fall and a
Sunni government in Syria, but the Risk Assessment Iran calculated did not
lead them to believe they need to place a bold warning to the supporters of
the rebels.

Again, that appears to have changed.

The attacks in Damascus, Aleppo and the border crossings all taking place
within a one week period has apparently had a dramatic impact on Iran.

Floating this threat by a lower level Commander is a sign the Iranian's are
still cautious of drawing a line in the sand, just yet.

My bet is, if actions in Aleppo continue and the border crossings are not
secured, thus preventing resupply, Iran will ratchet up this warning.

Assad's statement about WMD operations followed by this Iranian threat is no
coincidence.



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