EGYPT AND LEBANON… A MOVE THAT
WILL GO UNNOTICED
With all that is going on in the region right now, it’s easy
to miss the fact that Hariri has returned to Lebanon.
It’s just as easy to overlook the strategic importance of
this pledge by Egypt to Lebanon.
Let me take a minute and show how these two seemingly
unrelated events represent a very important change.
Oh by the way; I’ve come to the realization that one of the
fasted growth industries out there right now is the business of standing up “Institutes”.
The Institute for this…. The Organization of that…. The
Charter of the Institute for the Organization…and so on….and so on…. And so on……good
grief!
If you have an
opinion of the Middle East or any other hot topic on the worldwide media scene,
just wait for one of the thousands of “Institutes” to hire you so you can
babble on TV!
Ok; back to what I was talking about.
Hariri?
Does anyone remember who he is?
Who was his Father?
Who murdered his Father in a huge car bomb?
What event started the most drawn out United Nations Court
Case in the world?
Well, let me keep in simple.
Hariri is hatted by Hezbollah and thus the Persians!
Why?
Simple; he, like his Father, believed and believes in a
peaceful Lebanon that is a economic hub for the region.
In Tehran, that is pure heresy, thus they blew up his Father
in 2005!
Oh ya, that was the event that lead to Syria’s proxy army,
proxy for Iran, being told to leave Lebanon and that was the beginning of the
end for the Assad rule!
Why was Hariri out of country for so long?
Ask the Hezbollah killers who have been and are still
waiting for the order to kill him.
So, why did he come home now?
Simply put, it’s time!
It’s time for Lebanon to keep from sliding into the abyss of
Sectarian War; a war they are on the very edge of being consumed by.
Islamic State forces combat operations last week on Lebanese
land was the greatest warning sign yet of the pending disaster awaiting
Lebanon.
And what of the Lebanese government’s feelings of him coming
home?
Ask yourself one question; who is the President of Lebanon?
Or better yet.
Who is the net President of Lebanon?
Deadlock in the flavor of the day in Lebanon and Politicians
almost always move only when they think the timing is right.
Is this the only reason Hariri decided now is the time to
return?
Nope!
Ah, then you may ask; “what else”?
Did Hariri wake up late last week and say to himself, “I
think I will fly back into Lebanon and see if Hezbollah can finally blow me up”?
Before anyone in the situation that Hariri finds himself in,
decides to “move”, one thing must be true.
You must have support!
So, who is Hariri’s support?
Ah yes; the second part of my post today!
Egypt!
As an old retired FBI friend of mine loves to say, “There
are no coincidences”
I know, typical of Hoover’s troops!
When Egyptian Ambassador to Lebanon made the announcement of
“support” to Lebanon, does anyone truly believe Hariri didn’t know this was
coming?
Now, take note in what was said by Egypt; “ All possible Aid”!!!
In a part of the world where reading between the lines is an
art, everyone should read that line!
Why would Egypt take this stance the very week Hariri
returns to Lebanon?
Was it part of a “Plan”?
You bet!
Who’s in on it?
The West?
Don’t count on that one!
These guys are playing Chess and the West / US / is playing
reactionary Checkers!
Back to the “why” of the Egyptian move.
What is important to Egypt about Hariri’s return to Lebanon?
Simply put, what’s in it for Egypt?
What is Hariri at his core value?
A business based leader who believes in the separation of
religion and government.
Is he more like Sisi than other potential leaders in
Lebanon?
Yes.
Does he have the “name” to win the Presidential elections?
Yes.
Does helping Lebanon remain stable indicate to the world
Sisi is a real regional leader?
Yes.
Is Sisi the one that is being counted on to bring the
Israeli, Hamas conflict to an end?
Yes; with the caveat that Hamas is destroyed when it’s all
over…. From Sisi’s viewpoint!
What is the real threat to Lebanon?
The Islamic State movement?
Who has been able to stop the Islamic state forces?
Nobody.
What will it take to stop them?
A modern military.
Does Egypt have such a thing?
Far better than any other that has gone up against the IS.
Egypt is strapped for cash, so who will help them if needed.
Inter the Saudis!
Ok, in the big scheme of things, what are these two events
really all about?
Who wants to be seen as the real “go to” country in the Middle
East?
Egypt!
Who is the major competition for this title?
The Ottomans.
The Persians.
In Turkey this week, the election of their next Dictator is
underway.
While he is distracted with that event, what better time for
Sisi to make his mark on the region?
Everything about international politics revolves around
timing!
The time was right for Hariri and the time was right for
Sisi.
Let’s see where this goes and let’s watch how it is received
by the Persians and the new Sultan of Turkey!
