US ELECTION CHALLENGES: THE DRAGON, THE TSAR, AND THE SULTAN. WHO IS THE RIGHT CHOICE?

I’m not in the habit of posting purely political conversations and the good news is, I’m not going to start now! But, the pending US election is more than just critical to the future of an unbalanced world. It has the potential to set into motion a series of events that not even the US would be able to prevent from dragging the world further in to crisis.

Before I travel down this “who is the best person to face the challenges of the US’s interaction with the rest of the world” path, let me do a few simple scene setters.

In 2009, the US, a war weary nation after eight years of conflict following September 11^th 2001, decided to elect an individual not based upon his ability balance the needs of the US with what was taking place in the rest of the word, but upon raw emotional feelings! Yes, the fact of the matter is, the US placed a person in the most powerful position in the world based on “feeling good” about voting for that person.

Was this the right person at the time to place in the White House? Well, as many seem to think today, there probably was a “right person” at that time as well.

“We need to sign it and then read it”, was the mentality of the US and the party that was in power at the time of this election. It seemed the rhythm was, don’t worry if it makes sense, it feels good!

In 2009 the US President began what many dubbed, “the world apology tour”! At that moment in time, very few understood the global repercussion of the US suddenly turning off the concept of American Exceptionalism.  The law of Second and Third Oder Effects and or The Law of Unintended Consequences were not on the radar of the White House or the party in power. Some spoke of the vacuum the US President was creating, but those words did not resonate with the rest of the nation who was waiting to see who the big name was going to be on Dancing with the Stars. Yes, the US population was clueless about its own future and the impact it would have on the world.

So, scene setter number one:   The Death of American Exceptionalism.

Earlier, I mentioned the vacuum effect, so let me explain, but not drag this scene setter too far out.

Once it was established the US was going to pull back from being a world leader, that it was going to become an “equal partner”, those that had no intention of being an “equal” set into motion plans, both hastily designed and well designed, to take advantage of the US withdraw!  

How the US administration could have possible come to the conclusion there would be no vacuum and somehow everything would become some utopic “group think”, well, I’m afraid the historians a hundred years from now will depict this whole journey as the beginning of the end for the US. You see, once you arbitrarily decide to leave the world stage, you don’t retain the right to just walk back on to it when you like.

As I mentioned, the vacuum was filled predominately by two groups. Those who had a plan and those who quickly came up with one. Here are the examples.

The Tsar: He had a preexisting plan and he is still driving towards its outcome. A plan that is so emotional to him that it’s derailing could plunge the world into war. (Remember this when I get to the topic of the current US Candidates).  

The Dragon / China! Now, there is a plan that is a thousand times more complex than the Tsar’s and one this was designed long before the 2009 world tour began. Yes, the Chinese anticipated an apology tour.  The individual passion behind this post US world dominance plan was not and is not anywhere near the level of the Tsar’s, but’s the desire to see fruition is every bit as dangerous as the Tsar’s plan. “Death by a thousand cuts”.

Okay, here is an example of a “quick plan”. It’s no mystery that Egodan / The Sultan/ believes he is the power figure that will bring the Ottoman Empire back to thrown with authority  of  the whole Middle East, with the exception of Israel, an Allie he needs but doesn’t want to talk about. His anger over the Europe’s viewpoint towards the Turks has infuriated the Sultan for years. Without the Turkish military, the European militaries would have to double / triple their manpower commitment to NATO. Yep, Turkey was cheap labor and the US paid for the equipment. Europe sat fat and happy and wouldn’t give the Turk’s any share in the economic growth coming from the EU. So, this set his anger, but his anger and resentment didn’t equate into a “plan”.  Egodan did not design the new Ottoman Empire plan until after the Middle East began to fall apart. By 2011, he began to understand that with the US walking away from any organized strategy for the region and Europe being frightened to death about the Human wave that may come from a region in crisis, not to mention Africa, he began to see the “vacuum” and how he could propel the Ottoman Empire back into modern history. As complex as the Dragon? Not even close. As compassionate as the Tsar’s plan? Close, but then again, the Tsar’s plan and the Sultan’s plan didn’t match up and that would lead to two major power leaders edging towards conflict. Reminder here; you can’t leave the stage and then try to walk back on later down the road. This is exactly what the US has done when it comes to Turkey. In the end, the Sultan’s plan was poorly thought out, but full of emotional power with a mentally unstable planner.

These are just three examples of plans based upon the vacuum created by the death of American Exceptionalism. Many others are out there as well and some of the most dangerous ones could very well be the very ones the US is not paying attention to.

So, scene setter number two: The Vacuum planners!

Okay. So the world was changed by the sudden change in philosophy held by the US and some where more than happy to this change take place. Some, where and still are in a dead panic of the whole eight year journey. 

The undeniable fact is this. The world was not made a better place by losing its most senior Adult figure. The world family was not ready for this departure and the events of the past eight years are a clear indication of that fact.  

Can the US “walk back on to the stage”?

In just a few weeks, the US will elect their next leader. The leader who will inherit eight years of the apology tour.  Eight years of wanting just to be a member of the team, not the team leader. A team that was simply not ready for their leader to walk away.

No. the answer is no! The US cannot walk back on to the world stage with Presidential hand waving!  Some won’t listen and some will do everything in their power to keep that from taking place to include conflict. Yes, a few would welcome the encore, but not to the level that it would bring about a successful comeback.  So, no, it won’t work.

If it won’t work, then what is the real value of this pending election?

Who is the best option for the US and who is the best option for the rest of the world?

I’ve heard the media and the talking heads babble as they think they are addressing these issues.
Here is reality they simply don’t want to come to terms with.  There is no such thing as, “the rest of the world”.  The world is so fragmented, so self-serving that only a Passive, liberal, ideological fool would talk in terms of “The World”! That was a song thirty years ago! The “world Opinion” of one candidate in the US, ether one, doesn’t exist! There is NO WORLD OPINION!

If you accept there is no such thing as a world opinion, then the next logical question may be, “who is the best candidate for the important issues in the world”? A question that at its core value comes down to, “who is best for the US from the US’s viewpoint”? Well imagine that. A concern by US citizens that is not based upon “World Opinion”!

What really should matter to the US voters? Well, here is my opinion and it’s an opinion based upon a somewhat negative opinion of both candidates.

Who can do the most harm to the US? Now, before US readers fly off the handle with the standard party line response, regardless of what party you are affiliated with, let me just say, think before you answer.  Challenge yourself to see if you are truly aware of what the dangers are to you and your country? Who can do the US the most harm? That is my first question to you.

Hillary Clinton and the Tsar:

What is the relationship between the Tsar and Hillary Clinton? If you guessed poor to dangerous, you are correct. You see, back when she and the current President of the US came up with the laughable, “reset button” plan,  both of them never stopped to understand something about nation state interactions. Nations that are not getting along are like couples who are not getting along. Just because one decides to change their ways, that doesn’t mean the other side does. You can damage a relationship to the point it will not work. A partner can just decide they no longer need you. The reset button concept was location stop for the World Apology Tour and Hillary was the Tour Manager!

Does the Tsar have a willingness to change his vision for Mother Russia based upon Hilary coming to power in the US? No!

Does the Tsar respect her? No!

Does he fear her? No!

Those two answers are a very dangerous combination!

Hillary is seen as a Hawk to her own party and undoubtedly, she will have a different approach to those who snub her than her old Boss. Will this make the Tsar change his ways? No!   

To the Tsar, Hillary is part of the Word Apology Tour and that makes her weak. Suddenly showing up and depicting herself as an Alpha Female, well, that’s not going to impact the Tsar. If you are a supporter of hers, I’m sorry, but that is reality. She is weak in his eyes and she will not be able to change that.

Why is that important?  Think about it. What happens when someone gets upset with being labeled weak, soft, scared and they don’t like it or worse yet, they are embarrassed in front of others? Yep, they overreact! They strike out or respond is someway that is unplanned and poorly thought out.

Bottom line. Can Hillary Clinton deal with the methodical, calculating KGB trained head of a nuclear nation? Can she do this post American Exceptionalism, an event she lead the charge on?

  Hillary Clinton and the Dragon:

What is Hillary Clinton’s ability to keep the US safe from the actions of the Dragon? Strangely enough, the world apology tour did not take place with the Dragon. As a matter of fact, the only time the current US administration seemed to have an “In your face” attitude was with the Dragon! “Back to the Pacific”! A concept that astounded me the day I head of it. Who in Washington DC briefed the US President that the US had ever left the Pacific? A question some are still asking. Anyway, Hillary Clinton’s interaction when she was Secretary of State with the Chinese was not as noteworthy as the Reset Button blunder with the Tsar. So, can she solve the South China Sea crisis? By the way, if you think the events taking place in the South China Sea do not rise to the level of a crisis, then you need to read what the Chinese press and bloggers are putting out. Trust me. The South China Sea control issue ranks up there as one of the top two threats to armed conflict.

What is the Dragon’s opinion of Hillary Clinton? What is there perception of her? Has anyone in the US bothered to find out or are they just going to let give some 30 sec answer during one of the debates and that is if the question even comes up! Here is what I will tell you and I will say it again when I look at the other candidate. The one thing every US citizen can count on is the fact the Dragon has designed a “plan” for her becoming President. They have designed a plan in case Donald Trump wins as well. This is what they do and they do it better than anyone in the world. They plan. The plan to a degree unmatched in the world of nation state relations.

So, the final answer on the issue of Hillary and the Dragon could be this. We will have to wait to see once she wins the election.  That my friends is just how complex the Dragon really is!

So, the two issue that could truly endanger the future of the US are identified. The Tsar and the Dragon. Now I know the Sultan and others might be resentful they were not factored into the discussion, but the fact of the matter is, they can’t end the US as a nation. They can impact it, but they can’t completely alter the future of the US, at least not yet!

Donald Trump and the Tsar:

When I first heard Donald Trump was once again going to play like he was running for the Presidency of the US, I thought to myself,” here comes another one of his stunts”. Like most, I thought this was not even worth paying attention to. Then it happened, it dawned on me what was taking place. For years the US conservative talk shows had ranted about the uprising of the “backbone of the nation”! Several years of constant conversation on the issue of the US  Republican Party not living up to the promises that had been made. Countless stories of the arrogance of the leadership of that party, virtually ignoring the wishes of the very people who supported them, voted for them.  That is what I had been hearing and that now seemed to be coming to an explosive conclusion. By the time the US Republican party realized what was going on, the damage was done. The confidence of their supporters was weakened to the point they could not carry the day. Trump was one of the first ones to realize the change that was taking place in the US and I’m not sure the US public should have been surprised by that given his straight forward approach to addressing issues. At the end of the day, when the dust settled, it was clear part of the US population was tired of the same old political cycle. Change. It was not planned. It was not anticipated, but for the US, it is now reality. A percentage of the nation felt so alienated that they have turned to a new form of political leadership. Donald Trump! A Billionaire Businessman who speaks before he thinks!  

As the US has sat and pondered this phenomenal rise to power of Donald Trump, an event that could very well end with him in the White House, it’s important to objectively look at what this means to the one man who also has a rather popular backing and is known for getting his way. Yep. The Tsar.

It’s been said that the Tsar and Donald Trump “know each other”. Donald Trump has talked about “meeting him” in the past. So, how much do they really know each other? Hillary Clinton’s supporters would have the world believe that Donald Trump is practically a Special Agent under the Tsar’s rule. Donald Trump would have the US citizens believe he talked to the Tsar once.  As for me, let me stick to the facts. Facts that can be used to draw your own conclusions with.

Donald Trump was in the Casino business.

The Russian Mob was and is in the Casino business and the Russian Mob is controlled by the Tsar.

The Casino business. A global business. How many global businesses do you know of that do not have a working knowledge of each other when they are both in the same line of work? Does that mean Donald Trump had “meetings” with the Tsar? No. Does that mean that they both understood this shady business and those who were involved in it? Yes. Donald Trumps ability to gather information, intelligence to some of us, on a global scale is unmeasured. But, you can rest assured knowledge is power in the business world and that holds true for the Casino Business!

Does the Tsar respect Donald Trump? Yes. Why shouldn’t he. He was and is a ruthless businessman who goes after what he wants and doesn’t mind breaking a few rules getting there. A trait the Tsar admires. Bottom line, Donald can be ruthless and that gets the Tsar’s respect.

Do they like each other? Short answer, irrelevant. Both of them are not in the business of making decisions based on liking someone.

Does the Tsar see Donald Trump as a threat to the Master Plan for Mother Russia? That will depend on who Donald Trump listens to and surrounds himself with. You can bet the Tsar has dusted off the Donald Trump files and has already started planning for what alterations he may have to make to his Master Plan based upon Donald walking into the White House.  Have a plan… always have a plan. A KGB truism the Tsar will apply to both Hillary and Donald.

Here is the most important question?  When it comes to the Tsar,  will a Donald Trump administration be less dangerous for the US than a Hillary administration?  Yes. Look at one factor besides the personality attributes. Look at Trumps opinion of NATO and Europe. Could the Tsar get better news than to hear Donald Trump say the US’s involvement with NATO may have to be ‘reviewed”? It so upset many of the traditionalist in both US parties that it lead to the Democrats ventrally labeling Trump as a Russian Agent!

What will be the relationship between a Trump administration and the Tsar? One thing is for sure. It will not be as controversial as a Clinton option.

Will Trump conform, given in to economic, military, political pressures when it comes to the Russians? Who knows? Logic show he would, but then again, what has been logical about the whole Trump event?

Donald Trump and the Dragon:

Well, if the scorecard so far looks something like this, Trump on Russian up by one, then the next category may end up as the equalizer.

From day one, Donald Trump’s drumbeat on trade imbalance has been the key to his rise to power.  It’s one of the issues that frightens the US Democratic Party the most. Blue collar, white America has been the breadbasket for the Democratic Party for over a hundred years. But in the last ten years, as the Democrats observed the demographic trends in the US, they seem to have made a conscious decision to move away from the Blue Collar Whites and concentrate on other future trends in voting. Like it or not, Donald Trump has ceased on this issue and now threatens to take away a large enough slice of the old baseline that the Democrats have woken up to panic in some of the swing states.

What message is Donald Trump selling that angers the Dragon? Trade and the injustices of that trade world.

Is that a realistic argument? Well, to a laborer in the US it is and that is who Trump is after. So, does the statement have to make business sense? When has that ever impacted a US Politician’s stance?

Does the threat of making the Chinese and the rest of the trading world play on a level field worry the Chines? Not as much as you might think. Here is why. About two years ago, the Chines began to deliberate economic shift from exportation to internal consumption. Not a great leap, but a gradual ever increasing change that had several, internal desired outcomes for the Chines government. Short answer, more and more, things made in China are being made to sell in China.

If you factor in this movement towards internal consumption in China with the stark reality of the typical US citizen not understanding what would happen, at least in the short term, by placing Trump’s threatened tariffs on imported goods, you would see at least the Chines are not too worried about campaign trial promises.  Here is the interesting part. Trump is a very good businessman so even he knows this is nothing more than campaign trail talk and that makes him sound like a normal US politician, something those who have moved towards him don’t want to see.

How will Donald Trump react to the issue of the South China Sea crisis? This is a far more important topic to the Chinese than trade imbalances and tariffs campaign speeches.  It will be interesting to see if the topic comes up in one of the debates, but my guess is, Donald Trump’s response will be along the lines of, “we need to figure this out. We need to come to some understanding”. He will not beat the war drum and that will be even more peculiar given that is exactly what Hillary Clinton may do. Remember, her goal is to show the US audience on the issue of international threats to the US that she is a Hawk! I know…I know….it’s like this whole US election cycle is turned upside down?

So, as the end of the day. The Chinese are looking for a Donald Trump campaign to talk big on trade and then, after they win, do what every US politician does, change from what they said, to they need to do.  It’s the issue of the South China Sea lanes that will hold the Dragon’s interest and that will take place after the election.

Like with the Hillary Clinton wrap up, the Runner-ups for future interaction with the US simply didn’t rise to the level of true threat to the US existence. I will come back in the next few days and talk to the other issues this election will impact, but the Tsar and the Dragon are the only two that can end the US having the next election.

P.S. Notice I didn’t give an overall scorecard!

That is for each of the US voters to decide. What worries me is how much energy will the typical US voter will put into finding the facts. 

Oh ya.. Football was on today so most of my readers of this post will be in other parts of the world!

I rest my case.