DID THE US MEET WITH HASSAN KHOMENEI AND MEMBERS OF THE IRGC?

Two days ago, I posted a podcast on a story I read that made me stop to think! Did the US meet, in secret, with the Grandson of the Ayatollah Khomenei and reps from the IRGC? Is this possible? Would the US do such a thing? Well, first off, you bet the US would and so would any other country in the world because that is how the world works. This meeting is allegedly to have taken place in Iraq. Unusual? No. Safe, neutral ground for the Grandson and the IRGC reps, that’s what Iraq would have provided. What would have been the purpose of such a meeting? Now, there is the Billion dollar question.

Why:

Why would the US agree to such a meeting and by the way, who arranged the meeting? Let’s put a few facts on the table and then we will drive on. First off, the Grandson. Why him? For the sake of keeping this simple, let me tell you why him. He’s not one of the “Chosen”. Yes his Grandfather is the founder of the revolution, but the current leadership sees him as a threat. You see, once you gain power, you are never in a hurry to turn power over to someone else. Short version; the Grandson is on the outside looking in and he has been very……..very vocal about that fact. Does he have relationships with “others” outside of Iran? You bet he does. If Moscow was to agree to a change in leadership inside of Iran, is the Grandson someone that is already willing to work with Moscow? Now, there is a concept I will have to come back to in a few because it’s vital to what I am driving towards.

The IRGC.

 If you have followed my post, you know I made a big deal out of the rumors the old men in Tehran wanted to move the IRGC under the regular Iranian military. War preparation? Maybe. Budget issues? Perhaps. Trust? Ah, now there is an issue that is at the top of the charts each and every day of the week in Tehran. For over a year, I’ve been talking about the relationships Moscow has been building with key IRGC and Al-Qud leaders. Operations and intentions in Syria were and are determined by commanders on the ground and the orders to those commanders come from Moscow. When those orders conflict with the guidance coming from Tehran, then you can bet the Russians are letting key Iranian military leaders know what the future may look like if Russian support were to change. Short answer, “ If we decide to pull the plug on the leadership in Tehran, you need to be on the right side of that event”. When the time comes, Moscow is known for clear messaging. Does the fact that key members of the IRGC came to this secret meeting once again point to Moscow’s involvement? You bet it does.

The Power of Rumors:

Imagine the reaction in Tehran when this story broke. Do the Mullahs keep track of the Grandson’s whereabouts? How could they not? Validating if he had recently been in Iraq would be a key clue in determining if this story was just something the US had concocted to deepen the paranoia in Tehran, or was there something to this rumor? What IRGC reps where said to have attended the meeting? That list would start with the names the old men already don’t trust, and that lack of trust would be built on who they think has been too cozy with Moscow. The bottom line is, this story made a bad situation for the Mullahs even worse. If it was a brilliant piece of Information Warfare on the US’s part, along with a few others, then proving the rumors false would become the top priority. Why did the US state the meeting didn’t take place, because that is exactly what the leadership in Tehran would expect DC to do. You see, by denying the story, the US actually made the impact more potent.

Who was there:

If Tehran believes this meeting took place, then how did it happen and who was in on it? The US? Yep. The Israelis? Yep. The Russians? Yep. The Iraqis? Yep, and that one poses a real problem for Iraq. If this meeting took place and it did so in Iraq, the Mullahs are going to want to extract a pound of flesh. In their eyes, the own Iraq and it’s leadership. To think they may be part of a Coup plot against Iran’s leaders, well, that just makes the paranoia level push right through the roof. Who was there? That depends on if the story is even true or not. Again, my hunch is the story is true to some level and if I’m wrong, I bet you can’t convince the Mullahs it’s not true.

Why:

Okay. Back to the question of why? What’s the best way to avoid a war between the US and Iran? A change in leadership inside Iran. Who knows this? Everyone. Who holds the strings to the actions of the Iranians? Answer that question this way; without the support from Moscow, where would Iran be? Does Russia care about the dreams of the Mullahs? No. Does Russia see Iran as a proxy fighter, although an unwilling one? Yes. Is Russia willing to offer the US a way out of a regional war, a war the Russians don’t want as well, with the exception of the price of oil? Well, that depends on what the US is willing to bring to the table? Look, I’ve been saying this for the past several years. NATO is the issue for the Russians. NATO’s creeping movement into Eastern Europe. It’s an issue that at some point in time Moscow will be willing to fight a war over, especially a proxy war somewhere else.  Last week, a meeting took place in Israel between the Russians, the US and Israel. The topic was supposedly the future of Syria. Iran was not at the table. How did that go over in Tehran? How much more isolated can these desperate old men become? With everything that is going on with sanctions and the status of Iran’s economy, just where does the rumor of a possible coup fit in? Was the purpose to further destabilize the Mullahs? Would Moscow agree to such an event unless there was something in it for them? Hint, if this meeting did take place and the Russians were not part of the process, then that is real…….real…..real bad news! 

The Mullahs have bad days stacked on top of bad days and there is no end in sight. They don’t trust the Russians and yet, that is the only game they have going right now. China you might say? Not yet….not yet. This is interesting stuff and it’s important stuff to keep track of. The Royal Navy’s slap in the face of the Mullahs yesterday is just another event that pushes the paranoia meter higher. I will leave you with one last thought. If you need to see how bad this story may have made things in Tehran, keep an eye out for the next big, Iranian driven event. As for the Grandson, I wouldn’t be starting any cars anytime soon.