THE BATTLE FOR KIRKUK. ANOTHER CHAPTER FROM DUNE! 

The long awaited battle for Kirkuk is underway. Anyone who halfway pays attention to the region has always understood what was going to happen. Kurdistan, or at least the attempt at Kurdistan. The dream of the Kurds. Kurds who just might be able to have some level of unity, unity long enough to attempt to carve out their dream. A dream the Turks, Iranians and Assad will do anything to prevent. 

 Fact check. What are the Kurds? Sunni. What are the forces now attacking Kirkuk? Yep. Shia.          Shia with Iranian units in support. Another fact check. What side are the Russians on? If you said    both, you can continue. What side is the US on, if you said both, you may continue to continue!     Wait…..what? The US is on the side of the Shia / Iranians? Well, not exactly, but they are                supporting the Iraqi government and only the true idiots in DC don’t understand Iran calls the     ball in Iraq. So, yes, you get credit if you said “both”.

Just how bad can this get?

               A few days ago, yet another ground movement was conducted by the Turks into Syria. Does anyone think this had anything to do with anything other than the Kurds? If so, stop. Go back to what you were doing. You just failed the course. Okay, back to the topic. So, are the Turks working with the Iranians? Well, not exactly. The common denominator is the quest to not see a Kurdistan continue to develop. How that takes place is not an issue derived from any form of “joint” operation, especially between Shia and Sunni units. Yes…. I know… there were and in some case are “Joint” Sunni / Shia operations in Iraq. But, before you believe some foolish concept such as a common goal, take a deeper look at the amount of money spent on this “joint” project. Yes, they are paid to get along and yes, they will both continue to betray each other when the time comes.

               How bad can the battle of Kirkuk get? Well, if you know anything about the Kurds, you know the Iraqi / Iranian forces better have their share of body bags ready to go. Yes, the Iraqi / Iranian / Hezbollah forces will make “gains” in the first actions inside of Kirkuk. The Kurds will give up areas they don’t intend on defending and allow the Iraqi units to spread out in an urban environment. Then the fighting will come and if you think the ISIS units held out for an extended period of time, pay attention to how the Kurds respond. This is a fighting force that has had years to think about how to defend Kirkuk. So, think of Kirkuk as Stalingrad and the Iraqi’s are the Germans. Think in terms of being over extended and you may get a glimpse of the days and weeks ahead for Kirkuk.

Where are the Russians?

               Russia. The supporter of Assad. Russia. The supporter of Iran. Are we going to see Russian air support for the battle of Kirkuk? No! Was a push on Kirkuk even in the playbook for the Russians? Nope! Do the Russians support the Kurds? Go back to the top of this post! So, what is going on here? How is the battle for Kirkuk going to play out in Moscow? Has the Tsar placed a call to Tehran yet? Does Tehran care if the Tsar calls? Let’s go back to a discussion I’ve had on several occasions. What is the relationship between the Russians and Iran? Does the Tsar get Birthday cards from Tehran? I bet not. Do the Russians see the Persians as tool in the great quest of Mother Russia? Yes. Do the Persians see themselves as a Puppet on a string from Moscow? No. Do they think the rest of the world sees them that way? Yes. Does that upset them? What do you think? Do the Persians feel as if the Russians pushed them to the sidelines on the future of Syria? Yes. Does that upset them? Oh you bet! So does Tehran “trust” Moscow? Trust? What a strange word when it comes to international diplomacy. Finally, are the Iranians going to allow the future of Iraq to be decided by anyone but Iran? No! So, where do the Russians come into play on the issue of the Kurds and Kirkuk? Have you ever read the book Dune? “The Spice must flow”! Who is in charge of the “Spice” is irrelevant. In Moscow, one truism is undeniable. If properly played, there is money to be made in a conflict and if you are really good, you make money from both sides!

The US? Where does it stand?

               As of this morning, the same old story hold true on the so called news networks. What did Trump say or do in the past 24hrs that everyone can argue about? Yes, the US is so lost in it’s own politics, that it can’t see the world that is revolving around it. Even when The Donald does attempt to address something about the rest of the world, the first reaction is only based upon what he said and not what the event itself actually is. Lost at Sea. That is where the US is. As a matter of fact, the US Foreign Policy Ship has been lost at sea so long, it has to be about out of gas! Funny thing about ships that are presumed “lost”. The people that were expecting the cargo, simply accept the fact it’s not showing up! It so bad now, I even saw an article last week on CNN that was encouraging Iran to “ Call the US’s Bluff on the nuclear development “deal”. Oh, by the way. Do you know why that disaster is called a “deal”? Well, I will tell you. Such an agreement, by US Constitutional law is supposed to be worked as a “Treaty” not a “Deal”! Obama knew he couldn’t get what he caved in on through Congress so he called it a “Deal” and thus, avoided Congress. Ego’s….politics is all about egos! Back on track here! The US “supports” the Kurds right? Well, there is another one of those funny words. “Supports”. Back in the 90s we “supported” the Kurds and that lead them to be gassed! Is the US going to prevent Kirkuk from becoming a battle zone? No. Has the US once again tried to work a deal with Moscow on the issue of Kirkuk? You can bet both sides have talked about what was coming. Did the US ask the Russians if the Iranians were part of the discussion? Nope! Did the US care? Nope. Does the future of the Kurds rest in the hands of the US? No. Who does hold the future for the Kurds? Are the truly on their own? The “Spice”….be thinking in terms of the “Spice”!

Did the Iranians force this Battle?

Short answer. Yes! What is the only thing the Iranians could promise the Tsar that might keep him from striking yet another deal with the US?  Yep. It must flow!  But wait a minute! What about the Ottomans? Has anyone worked this deal with the Turks? Who actually controls the lines from Kirkuk, that is until the location of the lines falls into the hands of someone new? So, what’s in it for them? Does the fall of Kirkuk prevent the future of Kurdistan? For the most part, yes! Is that enough to let the events in Kirkuk unfold without Turk influence? Yep.

               Yes the whole region remains a mess. Yes, the events in Kirkuk are going to have a resounding impacts on the Iraqi government, the Iranian government and the Turks. Yes, the Kurds are once again pawns in the larger game of world powers. Yes, the Russians will continue to make decisions not based on the best interest of Iran or Turkey. Let me end by saying this. The only way a fighting force like Peshmerga gives up Kirkuk is if something else much larger is going on. Iraqi flags driving up and down the roads of Kirkuk is a dangerous sign. Shia vs Sunni. If anyone has taken this reality out of the context for this event, they are foolish. Does the Guild understand the depth of this conflict?