NORTH KOREA. DID EVERYONE FORGET ABOUT THE PENDING MEETING?

               Now, I’ll admit it’s hard to keep North Korea at the forefront of the conversation when the media has been pondering a potential conflict between the US and Russia. Add to that, the increasing likelihood of an Israeli / Iranian / Hezbollah conflict and yes, North Korea becomes a temporary sidebar issue.  That being said, it seems The Donald pushed the North Korean issue back to the front of the line yesterday. Secret meetings have been taking place? Secret meetings are always taking place. Is that news? It seems The Donald wants it to be. Good old Twitter. To hear the story, the groundwork is being hammered out prior to the meeting between the Little Fat Guy and The Donald. Typical? Yes, but nothing and I do mean nothing is “Typical” when it comes to The Donald. If the North Koreans are finding out anything, they are learning their meeting in the past with the US are nothing like the meeting the US expects this time around. Fooling the normal Presidents of the US like North Korea has done several times in the past will not be the formula for success, delay, this time around. This time around it’s The Donald they are dealing with and I would be willing to bet they understand there is a difference this time. So what’s the expectation this time. More specifically, what is the expectation of the North Koreans? Oh ya….add to that the expectation of the Dragon and the Tsar. If you leave those two parts of the equation out, you have completely lost the ability to predict any outcome.

Broken Promises:

               Tell The Donald you are going to do one thing with the intention of doing something completely different and you have made a dangerous mistake. If you set out to make the Tsar look like a fool and you succeed, you have just taking your life into your own hands. The same holds true for The Donald and the Little Fat Guy needs to really understand that point. If the US Administration is hinting the North “rally” wants to come to terms with the US and South Korea is saying they think it’s true, then sitting down to the table and suddenly having a list of demands would be nearly suicidal. This meeting is being build as the “Real Deal” this time. The North is going to end it’s nuclear program. Well, that is how the story is being sold. Forget the history of broken promises. It’s a new day in North Korea. The end is near! It’s what everyone wants right? Lets think about the Dragon and the Tsar before we start to pop the Champagne bottles.

The Dragon’s Wishes:

               If you have followed this blog, then you know my theory on Chinas Master Plan. The goal is to remove the argument for US forces being stationed in the area. A united Korea is the tool that allows that argument to be placed upon the US’s table. “Korea is united and safe. Why are you still there”? Can China spend the money to make this unification dream economically feasible? Easy. Can China get the Little Fat Guy to go along with the plan? Like I’ve said before, ether he will, or his replacement will. Beside, I think the guy secretly wants to party and play like he’s in the movie “Hangover”. The reduction of US forces in South Korea is something The Donald would agree to. It may not be an overnight complete pull out, but a phased approached based upon the actions of North and South Korea. As a matter of fact, he mentioned in when he was on the campaign trail and this seems to be a guy who likes to click off the checklist of things he talked about. Imagine that! So, don’t be shocked, like I know the Pentagon Generals will, if you hear the US is agreeing to a controlled withdrawal from the Korean Peninsula. If China even gets the hint that this is possible, and they probably already have, then there wil be a full court press to make this meeting truly historic.

The Tsar Get’s a Vote:

               Is there a spoiler in this scenario? What’s in it for the Russians to see the US and North Korea come to terms? Is it not the current objective of the Russians to make the US look like the benchmark of Evil in the world? Remember the statement, “ Genocide by Sanctions”? Why would the Russians be in favor of a reduction of US forces in South Korea? The Donald is not about to reduce the US military budget based upon a force reduction in South Korea. He just finished one of his campaign promises by drastically increasing that budget. Did he say it doesn’t make good economic sence to have that force in South Korea? Well, that was somewhat the message on the campaign trial, but that was all about others paying their fair share. The Tsar understands the reduction of US forces in South Korea would lead to a redeployment of those forces to areas of the world were the dangers to the US and it’s Allies are still present. Yep, a reduction of forces in South Korea can lead to an increase in Europe, Jordan, Saudi Arabia or few other locations the Russians would rather not see reinforced. Again, what’s in it for the Tsar? Like most large business transactions, the payouts are not made just to the primary parties. What does Russia get out of this deal? What is China willing to give in order to sweeten the deal for those that can make the transaction more difficult? You can bet this part of the process has been underway for some time now, perhaps even longer than the big announcement of the pending meeting.

Wrap Up:

               Okay, so this meeting is going to take place. It may very well be historical. It may even lead to a change in doctrine and that won’t go over well with the Military Industrial Complex in the West, although The Donald tossed enough money at them in the budget, they should be happy for a year or two. It appears The Donald has huge expectations for this event, but he’s a skilled Businessman. Talk is not going to be enough. I’m not even sure this meeting is really about the little Fat Guy. It could very well be the deal is being done with the Chinese and the meeting with the North Korean Movistar wannabe is for show. Lets see what the next few weeks of tweets tells us. That is where we will get the best indication of what The Donald expects. One thing you can rest assured of. If The Donald pulls this off, CNN and MSNBC will give him absolutely no credit. As a matter of fact, they will find a way to make it looks as if The Donald screwed the whole thing up.