LIBYA.  DON’T HOLD YOUR BREATH FOR A “DEMOCRACY” ANYTIME SOON.

Most of us ‘Realist” understands the daunting task ahead for Libya.

The process of building a functional government  is going to require help and help from only those the Libyan people will accept.

So, what if the majority of the people in the new “Free” Libya decide they want a government and constitution based on Shari Law?

The hope of the West will be a Libya that follows a Turkish model and that is wishful thinking.

The bad news was already being seen late in the day when several Rebel groups were setting up their own “checkpoints” in the Capital!

Not easy to notice, but never the less the process was under way.

Does that mean Libya is staring out on the wrong foot?

Here is the problem; I’m not sure the Rebel Leadership was ready for such a fast victory.

Yes, some preliminary plans may have been drawn up for the post revolution government, but I would be willing to bet not everyone was on board!

The euphoria of today could easily turn into concern over the next 48 hrs and then slide into despair!  

Can Libya turn into a Somalia?

Yes!

Will there be a better effort to salvage Libya than what took place in Somalia back in the 90s?

Yes.

Why?

Oil!

Sound too simplistic?

It’s not.

The fighting may be over or at least drawn down to controllable levels, but the struggle of Libya has just begun.

The future of Libya is very much up in the air and the West knows it.

Was there good news today?

Yes…. From the viewpoint of Iran and Assad.

The news on Syria was just about off the radar most of the day.

I hope Iran and Assad enjoyed the reprieve because all eyes are quickly coming back to Syria.