WAR OF WORDS. ROUHANI AND TRUMP TRADE SHOTS.

 A few days ago, I was reading the latest “Moderate” words to come out of Rouhani’s mouth. I commented to the author of the story that Tehran truly doesn’t understand the personality in DC they are dealing with. The days of the modest, compromising, controlled speeches coming from the US White House are over, at least for now.  The talk of the day was Iran’s leadership once again threatening the Strait of Hormuz. That made for some interesting, tactical and strategic conversations with old friends. Then, the foolish statement was made about the “Lion’s Tail”.  That was the moment in time I truly began to worry the leadership in Tehran is at their wits end. For over two years now, I’ve been one of a few who have stood fast on the idea the Russians will never endanger their future over the desires of Iran. From the day the Russians pulled into Syria, invited of course, it was clear to Tehran, they had lost the ability to control the fate of Syria. At the risk of sounding like a broken….broken…record, I will say this again. Iran’s leadership has nothing going its way right now. Not only is nothing going the old men’s way in Tehran,  it seems they are doing everything in their power to speed up the disaster they are living in.

Pompeo and Regime Change.

If one looks at the words of the US Secretary of State, the argument can be easily made the US is looking to influence, once again, a “regime change” in the area. Now, as disastrous as this concept has been, it appears the outline of yet another event is in the works. “We are with you” are words that will mean a great deal more this time around than in 2009. If The Donald’s Team is saying, “we are with you”, then the odds are things are taking place. Again, do the Russians care? No. If you think they do, then you don’t know them like I do. Who is heading the country is not as important as who is working with the Russians. Oil and gas, that is what the Russians worry about. The manipulation and the control of the commodity the Russian economy and future is based upon. Have the US sit down and tell the Russians Iranian oil and gas will flow like a river, but only once the zealots that gave the US the Iran Crisis and the death of untold numbers of US military members in Iraq are gone, and the Tsar may load the gun used to shoot the old men in the head with. “Deals”. Deals are being made between the US and Russia and those deals don’t include the inputs from Tehran. No body knows this more than Tehran and the fear of what that means to them is pushing them towards contemplating war. Why else would they make statements about the Straits and Lion’s Tails to a guy like The Donald? Oh ya….and after the President of the US sends out a tweet in all caps, what does Tehran say? “ They wouldn’t dare”! Really? Do they truly understand who they are dealing with? The lives of every member of the Iranian military is in the hands of men making stupid….stupid statements and their families have to understand that reality. Yes this is some level of a “War of Words”. Yes this same brinkmanship was used with North Korea. But, somehow, the leadership in Tehran has convinced themselves the opposite reaction Kim gave is the course they wish to choose.  Can Iran attack shipping in the Straits? Yes. Can that dramatically impact the price of oil? Yes. Is that impact good news for nations that make money off the price of oil? Yes, at least for a short period of time. Do the Russians make money from Oil and gas? Yes. Does Russia really care if Iran’s military is decimated by the US and or Israel? No. Will they have harsh words and give great statements in the UNSC? Yes. Will it change anything? No. Do the Old Men in Tehran have anything to lose by pushing the issue with the US? Yes…..their lives and their form of government. Are they willing to risk it all for the sake of a Iranian dream they only seem to have? It appears they are heading that way. What will make this all come to reality? Now, that’s a good question.

Southern Syria:

 Rumors run wild the Russians and Israel are at an impasse on Southern Syria. Again, my bet is, the Russians really don’t care, even when they say they do. Everyone knows Iran will not pull out of Syria, they can’t. Everyone knows they are the backbone, IRGC at least, of what is left of the Syrian Army. The force in Southern Syria is more like a Mad Max movie than a true combat force and it will be no match for the IDF when the time comes. Iran will have to make a decision then. Do they start a fight with a military they cannot defeat? Will it spark a nationalistic fervor in Iran? No. It’s too late for that. So, what do they do? They have sat back and watched Israel pound, with the Russians looking on, any Iranian / Hezbollah target in Syria they pick. What do they do if Israel strikes the force in Southern Syria? The better question is, what can they do? 

            Getting into a war of words with the current US President is the act of an ill-rational leader and a so called “Moderate” leader at that. Rouhani is out to save his own political future and the radical conservatives in Tehran seemed worried enough that they have even been indorsing his words. That in itself shows you just how Tehran has fallen into a crisis mode. Iran is unstable. It is unstable economically. It is unstable politically. It’s a nation that has no true friends, the kind of friends who will come fight along side you. The people of Iran know this. The youth of Iran want what every person in this world wants. They want to be safe, happy and able to take care of themselves and family. None of that is going to happen with the path the nation is on now. Pompeo said it best. The people in Iran need to know the normal slice of the world is with them, but that won’t save them from the nightmare the old men in Tehran may be about to bring down on them. The key is military leadership. They key is people like Soleimani. Yes, everyone knows he is loyal to the Old Man. Yes, everyone knows he is loyal to the so called Revolution, but, is he willing to watch those he is loyal to destroy the future of Iran?  Soleimani. He is the key that I place my bets on. Have the Russian’s design a “PLAN B”?  How many times has Soleimani been to Moscow? We all know what the old men think of Moscow. In the words of a great movie. " Choose your next words wisely as they may be your last".   Rouhani.. You are no Spartan! 

Oh ya. I keep forgetting this new thing for me called Twitter. I talk about this region all day and night for that is what us old, retired folks do.

@ColDan11. Love to hear from all of you.