ISRAEL AND EGYPT.. THE DANGER OF ESCALATION.  

Last night I talked about just how tedious the situation between Egypt and Israel had become over the terrorist attack and the reactions to it.

It is obvious the tensions have increased drastically in the past 24 hrs.

I will go on record stating I do not believe Egypt is willing to turn this event into a full scale crisis that could lead to conflict and the same goes for Israel.

I think what is going on here is the Egyptian Military has and had two issues that forced the Egyptian government to respond.

1. The Fundamentalist wasted no time taking advantage of the event.

The protest at the Israeli Embassy  was quickly organized and probably took very little effort.

2. The Israeli comment about the Egyptian Military not being able to control the      Sinai border with Israel was an complete disaster.  

Any operational planner worth their weight in salt should have been able to predict this was just the kind of half-baked statement the attackers were praying Israel would make.

It played right into their hands. STUPID!!!!

How Israel, after all that is going on in the Middle East, could not figure out the “ Master Plan’ of needing a distraction for Syria, is a complete mystery to me.

These “groups” in Gaza have handlers and their actions were coordinated for a reason.

Honestly, It makes me wonder if Israel has the ability to think clearly about what is going on in the Middle East.

Perhaps the pending events of September are so overwhelming to them that they are prone to  kneejerk reaction right now!

I am not kidding when I say, I am stunned Israel misplayed this event at the public statement level and the idea they would be reluctant to apologize for the losses of the Egyptian Military and civilian  police  makes me almost lost for words.

Here is the problem; the spiraling of events is not dictated by the Egyptian Military, but by the groups firing rockets and mortars out of Gaza!

I still believe Israel is too smart to jump into another ground operation in Gaza, but if the rockets continue, Israel can only assume the groups have been ordered to continue; thus the risk of escalation grows exponentially.

The IDF has working relationships with the PA security forces and the ability to estimate just how much longer this might go on is  an advantage for the IDF.

Are things going to get out of control?

As it stands now, I don’t think it will, but Israel simply must get better at predicting what needs to be said or it may get way …way … out of hand.

As I said last night…. The whole area is on Pins and Needles and poor decision making will be disastrous.

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=234680

http://www.debka.com/article/21226/