NIETO, TRUMP AND MEXICO. WHO IS TO BLAME?
Okay, back to an area of the world that has always worried
me and the events of the past few weeks have only strengthened my worries.
After I read this story, I had to wonder just how soon the “Anti
Trump” camp in the US would blame the inbound President for the events in Mexico.
The good news for Trump, most of the Democrats could care less about Mexico and
their actions in the past stand as proof. “Is there a vote to be had? If so,
let me get a soundbite together quickly. If not, who cares”? That is the
political way in just about every corner of the free world.
So, the price of gas in Mexico created this latest flare-up
of protest? Okay, got it. The issue is an easy one to understand. Mexico
started a process, under Nieto, to open up the Mexican oil industry. For
decades it’s been nothing more than a cash cow for the government to syphon
funds into social programs. The problem is, the funds never really showed up!
As you can probably guess, most of the profits went to the Political Elite in
Mexico City, but the story of taking care of the people sounded good. Well, as
the industry became far more competitive in the past ten years, it’s become very
clear to Mexico that their cash cow was not going to be competitive enough to
keep the funds flowing. Along comes the idea of privatizing part of Pemex. Not all
of it because that might make the pubic upset. The freebees must flow, but only
enough to keep the poor content. January 1, 2017 was the next phase in this privatization
process and that called for artificial prices to increase, much like the GCC
states had to do.
Now, in a normal, healthy society, a 25% increase in gas
would not be popular and it might even lead to a few televised protest, but
Mexico is nowhere near having a “healthy society”. Mexico is a societal mess
and the gas price increase is just another stone placed on top of an
overburdened public psyche. Protest are
nothing new in Mexico and the government of Mexico is notorious for
underestimating their public’s reaction. Not only does the Mexican government
not anticipate public anger, it has an even longer history of overreacting to
such anger and meeting protest with violence.
Is any of this new news? Is any of this worthy of catching
someone’s ear? Yep and here is why.
IT’S TRUMP’S FAULT:
A blast from the past tone is taking shape not only in DC,
but with other nations. “It’s Trump’s fault”! Trump has scared the Mexican
government and its people into believing they are all going to slide down the
economic scale into crisis because of Donald Trump! What a great and classic
pitch line from Mexico City. If you cannot find a solution to your problem,
then blame someone else! Now, a few things are worthy of addressing in this, “It’s
Trump’s fault” storyline. It seems clear now that Trump has figured out the
power of social media, at least far better than most of DC. You see, to typical
politicians, social media, twitter as the example, is nothing more than a tool
to garner votes. Yes, most political pundits have figured out the advantage of
social media, but almost all of them have underestimated its real power! But,
not Trump. It appears he understands far better than most of DC the art of
shaping other’s reactions with the simple motion of a post. Let me give you
what I now believe may be a prime example of what Trump has figured out. What
if? Yes one of my old, favorite games, but what if Trump never clearly defined
what he meant when he said, “Mexico will ‘pay’ for the wall”? The peso’s
nosedive in the past few months could be the real indicator. What did he mean
when he said, “pay”? NAFTA. The fear of the honey hole called NAFTA. If you forgot
what it was or never knew in the first place, here is my version. NAFTA, Not a
Fare Trade Agreement! Corporations get
cheap labor and very little environmental oversight and the Mexican government
gets to show their people they created jobs in Mexico. Did it create an unbalanced
trade environment? That’s a good topic for someone else to take on, but I will
say in the US it is undeniable the impact was the loss of jobs on a massive
scale. Perceptions! That is what politicians worry about, not reality! To working class “Joes” in the US, NAFTA was
the SHAFTA! Trump saw this and he levered it to win states that stunned the
Democrats!
Has Trumps statements impacted Mexico? Yes. Is Trump to
blame for the status of Mexico? No! If things go bad, real bad in Mexico, you
can bet the battle cry from the Democrats in the US will be, “It’s Trump’s
fault”! Oh ya, you will hear the same statements coming out of Mexico City.
What’s wrong in Mexico is not based on a 25% increase
in gasoline. What is wrong in Mexico is not based on Trump’s “words” on social
media or campaign platforms. What’s wrong in Mexico is the reality that Mexico
has no true governance! Nieto is just another in a long line of delusional, out
of touch, social elites from Mexico City who see the rest of Mexico as Fly over
country full of peasants! Hmmm.. let me think. What other political party
simply looks at the majority of their country’s landmass as “ fly over country”?
And they wonder why Trump won the Rust Belt!!!! 