RUMORS... PERCEPTIONS... PARANOIA.. A DEADLY COCKTAIL!

If you look to traditional indicators of pending conflict such as fuel, unit
mobilization ect... ect.. you may not be accurately assessing the current
tension in the Middle East.

For months now I have continued to state Iran cannot and will not accept the
fall of Al Assad and the follow on threat of the Arab Spring showing up in
Iran.

Freedom in Syria spells doom for Iran's Zealots ,with the exception of
Persian Nationalist. ( Another story in itself).

Everyday Iran seems to move closer and closer to a "use or lose" mentality as
their final decision on their future.

To me, one of the prime indicators Iran is in a final stage of desperation
would be the loss of its "proxy" fighters... Syria.. Hezbollah, Lebanon and
Hamas.

Iraq's fledgling relationship is far too immature to place Iraqi support in
Iran's camp in time of warfare; that and the brutal history of the Iran /
Iraq war.

So, with the reports of Hamas beginning to leave Syria and stories of Iran
warning Hamas they will lose support from Iran, I see nothing but increased
danger of confrontation.

Next, consider the perception Iran must have based on the public statements
coming out of Israel?

Iran making public they have placed forces on "a war footing" may just be
somewhat of a media show, but again perception begins to shape events in the
Middle East more than reality.

Now, if Hamas is implementing an exit plan for its relationship with Syria
and Iran, can Hezbollah be far behind?

Yes, Hezbollah is far more tied to Iran and Syria then the Shia Hamas, but
the future of Lebanon is paramount to Hezbollah and Hezbollah knows their
destruction is all but guaranteed in a confrontation between Iran and Israel.

As Israel continues to plan and review second and third order effects of an
attack on Iran, it must be weighing the likelihood of Hamas and Hezbollah
allowing their two organizations to be completely destroyed for the sake of
the Persians!

Lip service is a common practice in the Middle East and Israel understands
this implicitly.

Getting someone to "sit this one out" or just pay lip service is not out of
the question..... Just ask Saudi!

Quietly arranging the GCC or Jordan to make Hamas and the Shia of Lebanon
understand they can limit their pain in the pending war if they just sit on
the sidelines must be a key objective for Israel.

Lebanon and Gaza will not come out of this conflict untouched, but the
ability to rebuild is based upon the limitations Israel places on their
perceived threats.

I simply do not see how the Middle East is going to avoid a confrontation
unlike any we have seen there in the past forty years.



http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/iran-threatening-to-cut-hamas-funds-a
rms-supply-if-it-flees-syria-1.399612

http://www.debka.com/article/21543/

http://www.debka.com/article/21545/