IDLIB: NATO TESTED BY DESIGN
Let me start with the good news if there is good news. The chances of Turkey and Russia haveing an open conflict are low, very low. Yes, mistakes can be made, but the breakers are ready just in case that level of the crisis were to hit. Now, here is the bad news, this proxy war between Russia and the US / EU is not going away, and that means about a million more people heading to Europe. Today, all the talk is about the pending Pandemic and the economic crash it's creating, and that means, few are paying attention to what is taking place in Syria. So, it's time for me to touch on a topic I've addressed since the day it started.
Recap:
Here is the short version of what I've been saying on the Syrian issue for the past several years. Let me do this in bullet statements.
1. The Russian have been angry, really angry, over the departure of Ukraine, and the West has never realized just how upset the Russians are. They've even told the West, to no avail.
2. The concept of NATO's encroachment into the old Soviet "buffer zone", called Eastern and Southern Europe, is the key to Russia's determination.
3. The lifeblood of the Russian economy is fuel, oil, and gas. Controlling that industry to the extent posable is Moscow's goal. Controlling the competitors is also a goal, hence, the Middle East involvement, to a point.
4. The best way for Russia to counter the "West" move into areas near Russia's borders is to control the one commodity they don't produce, fuel! Think Nord Stream 2 and why the US is fighting it.
5. Pushing into the events in Syria was Moscow's way of telling the West / US / they will not decide the future of the region. tit for tat. Again, think of Ukraine and NATO in Eastern Europe.
6. Destabilizing NATO is a primary goal of Moscow. Don't underestimate this goal!
7. The "Bromance" with the Sultan in Turkey had one goal, see item 6.
8. Pushing the Sultan into a corner by killing over 50 of his troops since December, deliberate.
9. The killing of military members of a NATO nation, a key NATO nation, is by design.
10. The Sultan calls to his NATO partners, and they don't answer. Moscow smiles!
11. The Sultan does what he did last time, unleashes a MILLION people on NATO nations.
12. Moscow makes NATO look weak, thus new Eastern European partners begin to doubt.
Okay. perhaps this is an oversimplification of the issues, but I'm not here to push a book on the topic. This growing crisis is by design, and Moscow is the developer. Here is the problem. Unless Moscow has developed a very good psychological profile of Erdogan, they may be underestimating his response. The story goes, Turkey retaliated for the 33 dead by attacking Syria units around Idlib. Attacks that resulted in over 300 troops being, "Neutralized". Where there Russian " Little Green men embedded with those Syrian forces? Does Putin have what he wanted? A NATO partner getting kicked around, as it's new members watch it's NATO partners do nothing? This is a very complicated game being played, and the West seems to confused. Where is this all heading? Good question and the answer is up to a very...very unstable Sultan. In the meantime...............LOOK....Someone sneezed! run for the bunker! Oh ya. One last thing. with the whole world in a panic over the virus, who is going to let that next MILLION people in?
