THE FALL OF IDLIB…..AND THEN WHAT?

            So the Tsar gets his way and Idlib falls, but not after perhaps the worst battle in the Syrian Civil War.  By the way. How did all the “Bad Guys” end up in Idblib? Who kept telling them they could leave the other battlefields and get a free pass to Idlib? Who arranged a single point of conflict that could be pounded into dust until whoever was still alive gave up? Yep. Sounds like Grozny all over again!

            So, lets assume the battle for Idlib is over and the Russians inform the world the fighting is over in Syria. Now, everyone knows the “resistance” fighters who survive will melt into the population with one of two, or both, results. The level of insurgent activity, code for death and destruction, will go on for years. The “resistance” will pop up in some other region, most likely Iraq / Northern Iraq. Yep, it’s like playing Whac a Mole over there. But, from Moscow, all you will hear will be how the war is over and what a wonderful job they did saving Assad. When Idlib falls, nothing changes and that is the reality everyone knows, just ask the people of Syria. Do they go home? Home to what?

Bills:

            I heard the Iranians talking the other day about being involved in the rebuilding of Syria? Now, that’s a joke. What are the Mullahs going to use to pay for this part of their “rebuild….that Toilet Paper they call currency? Oh ya…. And watch the Iranian population when you tell them the Mullahs are going to invest even more money in Syria and not Iran. Good luck with that strategy.  How about Moscow? How many BILLIONS is the Russian Economy, just ahead of the Iranian level of strength, going to invest in Syria? The ports and the airfields and that’s it. Power, water, schools, Law Enforcement, ect….ect…ect….you know…..day to day living…how much of that will come from Russian pockets? Yep. We all know the answer. The Turks? Ya….right! they might as well take a loan from Iran for all the economic strength the Turks have. And finally, here is the kicker for all three nations who are joined hand in hand to help Syria, they don’t care! Can Iran moved through Iraq and Syria and Lebanon? That is what they care about. Can the Kurds be kept away from the Turkish border? That’s what they care about. Can the EU continue to see governments inside their organization change based upon the threat of mass migration, that is what Moscow cares about? Yep. Who makes Syria a “Normal” nation again? Nobody and that includes the US and the West. Moscow can win the battle of Idlib and then declare victory, but nobody is going to heal Syria. No body healed Darfur. No body healed Iraq, Afghanistan and I could keep naming them. War is easy. Killing is easy. Rebuilding a nation that you don’t live in or depend on, that is not only not easy, it’s just not necessary.

Assad or no Assad:

            If Assad stays in power, Syria will be a haven for insurrection and violence. If Assad is removed from power, Syria will be a haven for insurrection and violence.  Does anyone think the person waiting to be bombed in Idlib really cares? So, when there is no good answer, what is the ultimate answer? Let me give you a hint. Who spent HUNDREDS of BILLIONS of US dollars on Iraq? Yep. What’s the best chance to get the West to spend money on Syria? Answer. You must make the US get really involved, not just setting up training camps in the North. How can you do that with The Donald in the White House? Answer, you have to get the US involved operationally and then pray The Donald only is around for two more years. Then….then…you have to have another apologist like Obama voted in. You have to have a US President that again sends BILLIONS of US Tax Payers dollars to the UN so 30 cents on the dollar can actually be spent on Syria. Here is the real….real bad news. That’s not going to happen! Times have changed and that means the window for the good old days of Uncle Sam spending BILLIONS on Nation State Rebuilding has closed.

            The Russians will keep control of the areas important to them and let the rest rot. The Iranians will struggle to keep the Russians from striking a “deal” with the US over Iranian influence in Syria, buying their time to the exit of Trump. In the meantime, the IDF will continue to destroy anything they need to in Syria with the Russians just looking on.  Oh….did someone mention the Chinese might want to spend money in Syria? Here’s the cold reality of that idea? What’s in it for China? Oil? No. Gas? No. What then? Why spend BILLIONS on that burned out hole in the ground? Answer, they won’t. Life amongst the rubble piled in the streets. Homes based upon how many unbroken bricks your family, what’s left of it, can dig out of the rubble, that will be the new normal for Syria. The great Battle of Idlib. In the end, just more misery and more bodies to pick out of the heap. There is only one true savior for the people of Syria. The Military Industrial Complex and the money they spend on US elections. Iraq and Afghanistan are so wound down, it’s hard to make any real money right now. Syria, and perhaps a war with Iran….now…………….. there’s some real funding! Assad better not use those chemical weapons!