THE DEAL OF THE CENTURY
NOW, WHAT?
Impeachment trials in DC. Corruption charges in Israel. A virus. Does the world really have time to pay attention to yet another "deal" over the topic of Israel and the Palestinians? I can name you one capital where the topic is smack dab in the middle of worrying about the "Deal of the Century." Tehran.
The Mullah's dreams:
What happens if the cover story for the Mullah's aggression in the region is gone? If the Arab nations stop listening, and most already have, to the "Evil Semites," speeches from Tehran, how in the world is Tehran going to push their agenda to the Arab people? You know............how will the Persians be able to gain control over the Arab population, a population that is taking over Iran? Yes, the Persian Mullahs have a colossal demographics problem, and they know it. The land of the once-mighty Persian Empire will someday be ruled by Arabs. Time marches on, but not for the Mullahs, at least not if they can help it.
In the past forty years, the catalyst for every expansionistic act Tehran has been base on the premise of doing battle with the nation of Isreal. Israel; the nation that took the land of the Muslim Arabs. Israel, the nation that bombs babies. Israel, the nation that takes all the water in a desert region. I could go on and on, but, the point is clear. With the hatred for Israel, what is the foundation of Tehran's fear tactic? Can the Mullahs in Tehran allow this so-called "deal of the Century" to become a reality? Better question. How can they stop Trump's next attempt to bring down the leadership of Iran and have no doubt, that is precisely what Tehran believes this deal is all about. Proxies. Let's talk about proxies and the orders they have already been given.
The Counter move:
If we assume Tehran will do anything it can to prevent the "deal," then what options do they have? As I stated just a minute ago, the first option is the Mullah's proxies. Islamic Jihad? Hamas, or should I say factions inside Hamas? Hezbollah? Can any of these groups create an event that kills the "deal"? Here is where the story gets fascinating. For well over two years, the heavy lifting of this "deal" has been taking place. Conversations have taken place in Saudi, Jordan, Egypt, and several of the Gulf Nations. For almost a year, the rumors have been flying that several vital Arab nations were coming on board with the concepts inside the "deal." Who tracked these conversations? You bet, Tehran. What agreements have been reached and who with? Tehran knows, and if they don't know, they are assuming and we all know what happens when we assume!
To Tehran, the "deal" has been signed, but can the coconspirators actually pull it off? Just how easy would it be to create an environment where it all fell apart? That's where the proxies come in. Just a few days ago, several key members of the Palestinian leadership called for massive protest. Threaten to leak who has been skimming off the top of the Palestinian people and suddenly you have more proxies. This morning, the IDF was told to prepare for immediate threats from the reaction to the official unveiling of the "deal". Was that order based on the verbiage of a few Tehran supporters inside the Palestinians? No. Intelligence is always the bases for IDF operations.
Let there be no doubt, a large percentage of the Palestinian people, youth, are not going to accept the "deal". That reality makes the process of violence a much easier task for Tehran. Will there be violence? I can assure you there will be a great deal of violence, at least for a short period of time. Money solves a lot of issues in the world and money is how the violence will be countered. Tehran can threaten and even pay some to cause trouble, but the future King of Saudi has much deeper pockets and putting a few extra zeros in a series of nameless bank accounts is a tact already underway. Here is the reality of the pending violence. People can get upset, they can burn tires, toss stones, shoot guns, but at the end of the day, if the nations in the region fear Tehran more than they care about a Palestinian state, then those people on the streets are waisting their time.
The Deal Timeline:
The US President is giving Israel and the Palestinians a few short weeks to make the "deal" work. My question is this, what is the definition of, "work"? In my wildest dreams, I can't imagine in just a few short weeks, the ability for Tehran to influence the key issue of the region will disappear. This short time frame sounds like a typical Trump, business pressure tactic. Will it work? Most of what takes place in the business world doesn't translate into the realm of geopolitical agreements. To political leaders, handshakes and promises are those things you do in front of the camera and then you leave and do whatever you were going to do in the first place. This timeline seems like a destruction failsafe for Team Trump. "Do it and do it quickly or I am out of here"! This "deal" has been cooking for over two years and if you know President Trump by now, you realize one thing; working on something for two years is about 23 months too long. To me, the timeline is a simple way of saying, Put up or shut up". The question becomes, who is President Trump addressing? The Israelis or the Palestinians. As a reminder, the leadership of the Palestinian, at least one faction, refused to show up for today's big event. Show the map, move the IDF forces, and the next thing you know, the deal is done, at least on the part of Israel.
No statehood, no peace:
Rumor has it, the " deal" doesn't address the issue of Palestinian statehood, at least not yet. If there was any issue Tehran will latch onto, it's that one. No statehood, no peace. By the way, the definition of "statehood" includes, from the Palestinian viewpoint, a city that Isreal will NEVER give up! You know, heading into this "deal", at face value, it seems like Tehran has a strong hand. It won't be hard to manipulate young dead Palestinian bodies on the world news. A few rockets from Gaza into Israel and the next thing you know the MSM is shouting from the rooftops what a dismal failure Trump's plan was. Better yet, "the violence is Trump's fault". You can bet the " we hate Trump" networks may mention the "deal" is officially out, but until the violence starts, the fulltime coverage and expert commentaries will not take place.
Has the issue of statehood been part of the two-year process? Yes. will the Arab nation's agreed-upon definition meet the dreams of the Palestinian people? No. Do the Gulf nations care? No. Does Tehran have a plan to create tension inside these Gulf nations if they do support the "deal", a deal with no statehood attached? You bet they do. Do the Gulf nations know this? Yep. You see.................the region is a very complicated story and right now, I think the Mullahs are plotting big.....big trouble. "No statehood, No peace". That might even become the battle cry inside the US and Europe. We shall see very, very soon!
Moscow! Where is Moscow on this "deal"? Now there is a topic for another day!
