WHAT TO WATCH FOR THIS COMING WEEK.

  IRAN:

The  rift between Khamenei  and Ahmadinejad seems to be taking a new twist according to this article. http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/05/201151410558329641.html 

Several different theories as to why he would take these actions, but the most simplistic version is, “I’m not going to back up”.     

As simplistic as this may sound, if Khamenei perceives this  to be true, then things could get much worse quickly.

Remember, perception in the Middle East is more important than reality and ‘Truth’ comes in a dead last.         

Internal power struggles in Iran as it tries to deal with Syria will only cloud the thoughts of both leaders and desperation may become the common theme.

SYRIA:

The fist thing to say about Syria is Lebanon!!!

The killings of Syrian civilians as they try to escape into Lebanon and a refugee issue staked on top, will lead to Lebanon’s turmoil increasing.

The Anti / Pro Syrian factions in Lebanon are nearly at each other’s throats already day to day.

A true exodus event from Syria into Lebanon, with wounded requiring medical attention, will add fuel to the fire.

Hezbollah grows more and more concerned about their relationship with Syria.

The more they are forced to worry about violence in Lebanon, the more prone they are to making real mistakes and Lebanon can not afford any mistakes right now.

Assad has dug himself a whole he can no longer escape from.

It appears the Kurds are becoming more and more involved now and that is a key indicator that things are going to get worse in Syria.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/05/2011514111351532345.html       

ISRAEL  AND THE PA:

Three important links here to give a perspective of where things might be heading.

For months now, I have said the ‘Tunisian Virus’ ultimate roadway leads to Israel.

With each passing day, Israel believes this more and more.

I stated two nights ago it doesn’t matter who fires the shot that kills a young protester.

The young man killed in the past 24 hrs is now first Official Martyr of the so called ‘third Intifada’.

I’m not sold the plan of launching an official Intifada can be achieved by just the youth movement.

The PA / Hamas and Fatah will have to back this before it can gain any traction.

But, remember my theory of both Hamas and Fatah being afraid of this new and, to them, dangerous Palestinian Youth Movement.

One death may not spark an Intifada fire, but it could!

One thing is for sure; if more people are killed on the 15^th, the ‘Third Intifada” wrapped in the “Tunsian Virus Movement” could morph into something none of them are ready to deal with.

Now, remember Iran needs something to happen and they need it soon.

Who shoots at who on the 15^th may not matter.

The attached DEBKA story points to this concern.

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=220514                          

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/05/2011514142534749136.html         

http://www.debka.com/article/20932/                          

BAHRAIN:

It’s worth noting Bahrain is beginning to boil back to the surface.

The Shi supported by Iran, according to the GCC, in Bahrain have done a great job depicting the double standard that seems to be taking place with the West.

For all the talk this week about Assad and his actions, the West has said little to nothing about Bahrain.

This may go unnoticed in the US, but it plays HUGE in the Middle East. 

Two months ago I talked about the West getting a better storyline ready for the ‘double standard’          accusation.

I’m not sure this is happening.

It better start quick!

PAKISTAN:

I commented the day UBL died, what a great day that was by the way, that Pakistan was in real trouble.

They were not on firm ground before this event and that ground is even less stable today.

Playing to the Chinese may make Pakistan feel good when it comes to being mad at the US, but it will not keep the Fundamentalist from attempting to topple the government.

Pakistan is in real trouble and they to may be soon be looking for a ‘distraction’ / external threat.

To put it simply, Pakistan is in real trouble.

Probably not along the lines of Syria or Iran, but given they are a nuclear power, any real trouble there can not be underestimated.

BOTTOM LINE:

May 15^th 20011 may not be the breakout day the Arabs are talking of, but it is easily the beginning of the ‘end game’ of the whole journey.