NORTH KOREA AND “ARMY DAYS”. WHAT’S THE REAL MESSAGE?

            Intelligence indicates North Korea is continuing to build their ICBMs?  Shocker! Meanwhile, China and it’s very nervous partner, Russia, hold “Army Days”, a live fire exercise designed to sell military hardware. Oh ya, the Iranians where there as well. Read between the lines on that one. And finally, yesterday, Moscow states they cannot prevent Iran from staying in Syria. Put a few things like these three together, and what do you have? A clue…. That’s what you have …… a clue!

            The US / West / wants this and they want that. The US / West / wants Democracy and free trade and secular politics and so on and so on. Well, some nations, ones that happen to be very powerful, they don’t see it that way. They don’t see the US attempting to shape how the world should look. Their vision of how the world should work is not in alignment with the “vision” of the US and it’s Allies. In the end, most worldly people will say, “you have to have balance. You have to find common ground”. Well, most with that viewpoint have spent their lives in organizations that don’t deal with reality. They thrive in Universities or other versions of closed societies. It’s a philosophical viewpoint that has historically resulted in even larger conflicts.

Words:

            I’ve had this conversation on many occasions, but let me go down this road one more time.  Words. When opposing sides sit down and try to solve “issues” with words and at least one of those in the conversation has no faith in the process of “words”, then the outcome is predictable, or at least it should be. Sitting down with North Korea was based upon “words” and photographs. One side made the meeting happen because they said they would address the nuclear issue and the other side sat down because they were told to do so. That was not and will not be, a recipe for success. Now, it’s discovered the North Koreans have continued building ICBMs. Let’s get something clear. Western Intelligence has known from day one the process was continuing. What changed was the decision to let that statement get out. Who let it out and why? Is anyone asking that question today? Okay, let me drive on.  North Korea head the threats. China heard the threats. Everyone in the world heard the threats coming from DC and yet, the North Korean program continues, at some level. Why? How could everyone hear what might happen to North Korea and just smile? What is truly more frightening? The fact the program is continuing or the reality the threats were ignored? 

Have the tables turned?

            For years now, I’ve listened to all the so called “experts” in the US and the West, talk about how China has too much to lose. Their economy is too dependent on the US and Western trade. They would not risk a confrontation with the US and its Allies. This has been the worn-out analysis on the issue of the US’s interest in the Pacific for over twenty years now. Times change, but the important fact is, you must recognize the change. Perhaps it’s the Dragon that now believes, “The US cannot go to war. Their people are too divided. Their media spends every day working to destroy the current administration”. Look. It’s this simple and you don’t have to have a PHD from Georgetown to figure it out. Do other nations simply not fear the threats that come from DC? Has the “Expert” analysis opinion been flipped? Is it the US that is unable to risk a larger conflict with a powerful enemy? Is the enemy beginning to simply ignore the US? Do they smell blood in the water as the US seems fixated on removing Trump from power? Is there reason for US’s adversaries to feel confident? Who are the US’s adversaries?

Moscow takes a stand.   

            “The Iranians are playing a very important role”. That is the message Moscow sent Israel on Tuesday. Israel’s stance on Iran’s involvement inside Syria was made a few weeks ago and that stance has not and will not change. Does that mean Moscow will back Iran if the IDF goes after it in Syria? No. Does it mean whatever message the US tried to convey to Moscow on the issue of Iran was not received? Most likely. North Korea continues to build ICBMs and Moscow refused to push Iran. Looks like the US’s message is not being heard or worse, no one believes the message. Don’t forget. A great deal of money can be made by replacing all the items Iran may lose in a conflict. It just takes having to give up a percentage of the oil and gas business to those who show up with replacement items. I’ve beat that horse over and over again, but the point is an important one. Moscow is going to let Iran do as it wishes just as long as Russian interest are not placed at risk. As for DC’s warnings, well, Moscow doesn’t seem to care.

Army Games:

            Live fire sales pitches? Is that something new? No, not really. Live fire demos with the Russians, Chinese and Iranians? Is that something new? Given the environment Iran finds itself in, yes……yes it is! Does taking part in a live fire exercise with Russia and China mean the Iranians have found top-cover from the pending threats from DC and Israel? No. Is it an indicator of where things are heading? Yes. Iran would love nothing more than to have both China and Russia sticking up for the old men in Tehran, even if it was only limited to words. Again. Times are changing and Army Games is just another indicator of those changing times. Showing the world state of the art military hardware, hardware that can be purchased at a fraction of the cost of Western / US / EU / suppliers, that is the message from Army Games.

What is the US to do?

            North Korea is building ICBMs. Iran is threatening the Mother of all wars and the US media is cheering for the Special Prosecutor to bring a seated President to trial. Does The Donald threaten North Korea again? I would be willing to bet CNN and MSNBC already have the story written about what a chump Trump was with Kim. Does a twitter come out of the White House threatening Kim? What statement could the US President make right now that would gain the support of the 95 percent of the US media that hates him? Why would any of our adversaries believe for a minute the US is capable of a major conflict?  How confident are they the US is falling apart? Well, perhaps they are confident enough to keep building ICBMs that can reach the US mainland. Perhaps they are confident enough to fire on oil tankers. Do any of the Trumpaphobics understand it’s not the actions of Trump that threaten the safety of the US. It’s their actions. It’s their phobic loathing  that emboldens those who are ready to ignore the “words” coming from DC.

            As a reminder. Agreements are made between parties who have a common desire, goal. Military superiority forces all others to compromise. The US’s military advantage has force others to compromise for decades. People don’t like compromise. Many don’t even accept agreements.  We are on a wild road folks.