THE ISLAMIC STATE AND THE DIVISION OF BERLIN.
With all the attention be given to the US actions in
Northern Iraq, it’s easy to once again overlook the area everyone seems very accustom
to “overlooking”.
Syria.
Let me make this simple.
The Islamic State forces are set to do what Assad forces
have been incapable of accomplishing.
The capture of Aleppo!
FSA forces know what they are facing and they also know the
odds of anyone coming to their aid.
It’s very possible we are about to see history repeat
itself.
At the end of WWII, the greatest challenge was to see who
would grab what was left of Germany; the Russians or the Western forces.
It was a race that nearly lead to the clash of forces who
had fought the same enemy for nearly five years.
Were the two sides “friends”?
Not really.
Did they have a common goal?
Yes. The destruction of Nazi Germany.
Was there concern over who would own what part of the country?
Yes.
Is the same thing taking place in Syria?
Yes.
How did it end for the West and Russia?
How will it end for the forces supporting Assad and the
forces opposed to the IS forces?
Having said all of that, here is the even more confusing
point.
At the end of WWII, who was on who’s side was a clear cut
story.
Does that hold true for Syria?
Who is on Assad’s side?
Who is fighting IS forces?
Both excellent questions with muddy answers at best.
So, what happens if Aleppo falls to the IS forces?
Does the US airpower strike IS forces in Syria?
No.
Does the supporters of Assad commit more troops to save
Assad?
No.
Does Assad lose Aleppo for good?
Yes.
Does Aleppo become just another city in the grasp of the IS
movement?
Yes.
Do the young fighters of FSA jump ship and fight with the IS
forces and bring all the arms they have with them; arms the “West” and “others”
have provided them?
Yes.
So, why did I know this was going to happen?
Don’t think for a minute I’m the only one that figured this
out.
The IS forces captured a great deal of conventional military
equipment from the Iraq military that ran away.
This lead to the IS forces thinking they could utilize this
equipment in a conventional combatant style, thus abandoning what has worked
for them for several years; unconventional conflict.
They wondered if and where the line would be drawn and they
got their answer.
Risk to US members in Iraq.
How long do anyone think it will take to return to what has
worked for them and move the conventional equipment to a place the US forces
will not strike it?
Hint.
They already have.
Remember…. The events of last week were a test of limits and
the test is over.
So, where does that conventional equipment move to?
The fall of Aleppo may provide us our answer.
