A few days ago, I was on Dan Horowitz’s show and the topic was Iran. I like talking to Dan given he is a Constitutional Law expert. Anyway, he asked me to provide an update on what was taking place with Iran and where I thought the issue may be heading next. He was a little taken back when I gave him my opinion. You see, the last time I was on his show, I made a real argument about how confused I was over the actions of Team Trump. It seemed Tehran was beating the US around the head in the perception game and at that point in time I think I was right. The called off limited strike by the US was the apex of what seemed to be a completely disorganized US plan. I believed that then and I still had that opinion on Dan’s show this time around. But and this is a huge but, something changed and that change is what I spent most of that hour addressing. I know Dan has a large following on his show, but I also know a lot of people outside the US read my blog. So, my goal today is to give you my opinion of what I believe changed with Team Trump.
Let the experts talk:
On the day The Donald decided to go with a COA/ Course of Action / given him by his, “experts”, most likely his National Security Advisor and his Secretary of State, two men who rumor has it, The Donald is having issues with, it was clear the administration was in near meltdown mode. Calling off whatever strike package had been approved and doing so at the very last second, gave the world the image of a US overwhelmed. As I stated on this site shortly after that event, it was most likely the CENTCOM Commander who convinced the President to stop the mission and that was probably based upon intelligence that showed Tehran was going to respond in a disproportionate manner. By the time this event was over, it was clear the President was completely frustrated. This was the first time in his term as President that he had to make a snap decision and one that was on a topic he truly had little background in. Much like Obama in Syria, The Donald was faced with a situation that could easily and quickly slide into a conflict no one in the US was ready for. Now, here is where it gets really interesting. A frustrated Trump has to be an ugly thing to watch. I have visions of LBJ during Vietnam and the fits he would display with his staff. Here is the other part of that picture that has to be considered. When this event was taking place, the pressure was on to do nothing that would upset the 2020 re-election process, a process that was already underway. The Donald had campaigned in 2016 that he would not take the US into another never-ending war as well as stating other nations needed to solve their own problems. When he was informed that Tehran was about to respond in a way that would quickly get out of control, he did the right thing, He asked his Combatant Commander what they should do and folks, there is the difference between an overwhelmed Obama or LBJ and The Donald. He asked the right person at the right moment in time what to do. Not his National Security Advisor. Not his Secretary of State, but the person who would be responsible for whatever action Tehran was going to take. Speculation? Yes, but my speculation is just as good as any other talking head who comes on network news.
The lightbulb comes on:
The Donald did the right thing, he called off the strike, but then the perception battle was lost, at least temporarily and that is a concept that is vital in today connected world. Within a day or two, as it became clear just how bad the perception event had become with Tehran gloating, The Donald made another right move. There had to be a better plan for dealing with the Mullahs and it had to be based on keeping his word from 2016, but how? With everyone giving their opinion once again, I believe The Donald turned to the person who represents a group he has always admired and listened to. He once again turned to his Combatant Commander. All along, this Commander had provided input as to what was taking place with Tehran, but that input is scrubbed by several levels of policy and political “experts”. The polite way to say this is, the Commander’s ideas are either revised to make the rest of the staff look good or they are scrubbed to the point what is given to the President is nothing close to what the Commander wanted to say. That is the Normal way of how bunnies is conducted, but The Donald is anything but “normal”. It is my belief the middleman was cut out of the picture and The Donald turned to the CENTCOM Commander and said, “ what should we do”? I can tell you if that happened, those that think they control access to the President were more than angry. In typical Trump style, he turned to someone he respected and tossed out protocols and with that, we now see a new approach and it’s an approach that fits with the 2016 pledges to the American people.
Pressure:
Let’s assume I am correct. Let’s assume The Donald placed the process of dealing with the Iranian crisis on the shoulders of the CENTCOM Commander. Was the Commander ready to take on such a task? You can bet your life he was and is. When The Donald asked him, what should the US do, the answer came straight from the Commander, unfettered with two key people looking on with Steam coming out of their ears and we know who I'm talking about. When this Commander was given the opportunity to state how he would handle the situation, he was prepared.
Pressure. It's a high-risk game when dealing with an unstable, radical government. The sanctions concept was a pathway to pressuring the Mullahs, but did the US ever have a plan ready in case the Mullahs chose conflict instead of capitulation? Was the concept of getting Moscow to agree to implement a regime change in Iran truly on the table? Who on Team Trump's staff supported such a move? Are there members who simply feel like striking the Mullahs is the real option? Just what did the CENTCOM Commander recommend? By looking at a few key events since the called off strike, we may be seeing a picture of a changed strategy.
1. The call for unified support in the region was a concept pushed by the CENTCOM Commander. It's his staff that truly works issues day in and day out with the nations of the Middle East. The rest of the DC crowd flys in and flys out after a fancy lunch or a quick photo op and if you have ever worked in the region, you know full well, the status of a US four Star General is far greater than any Son in Law or Ambassador or Secretary of State. It's just how the region works. Getting the Gulf Nations and "others" to prepare for greater pressure on Tehran was a CENTCOM generated concept that only the four-star could pull off.
2. Getting the British to make the first move on an Iranian load of fuel was a tactic that only true operators could come up with. Ones that work the region every day of the week. By the way, the IC / Intelligence Community, have people assigned to CENTCOM and many have been there for years. It's a One Team, One Fight family and it's a powerful took when coming up with contingencies. Did the planners anticipate the Mullahs striking out at British assets first after this seizure event? You bet they did. Did you notice the results of the attempted attack on the HMS Duncan never indicated what finally came of the bomb boat? Think about it. Did the actions of the HMS Montrose catch the Mullahs off guard? yep. Yes, the IRGC was able to capture another ship afterward, but that was most likely a calculated risk, given the defensive posture and density of assets in the area of operations. The reality was and is, the narrative of what is taking place in the region was changing and the perception battle was beginning to turn.
3. Meeting with Hassan Kohmenei. Remember what I said about the IC having people assigned to CENTCOM. On a typical day, those people have the same restrictions the CENTCOM Commander has. Ideas are vetted by the parent agencies before they are placed on the table for the CENTCOM Commander. If the CENTCOM Commander was told to take lead on the Iranian crisis, then that means his staff was allowed to do so as well. The members of the IC still need to wash their opinions with Headquarters in DC, but the four-star gets final authority on information provided by the IC members. So, think about it. The US meets with the Grandson and a few members of the IRGC, something I addressed last week, and that story / rumor gets back to the Mullahs. Once again, what is the true objective? Changing the narrative of the whole event, that's what.
What does it mean?
Is the situation dangerous? You bet it is. Is it possibly going to lead to confrontation? yes. Is the US seemingly gaining an upper hand? slowly, very slowly. Could deals be underway that are based on day to day relationships and not fly in and fly out political stunts? you bet. the deployment of US assets to PSAB in Suadi is not the work of the US DoS. It's the work of CENTCOM. It's the work of those who truly know the region and understand what it will take to defeat the Mullahs on the battlefield or by internal events.
Team Trump needed to get into campaign mode and the events of the on and off attack were going to lead to a potential campaign bonanza for his opponents. In my opinion, The Donald has turned the Iranian event over to the one organization that knows what can and cannot be achieved. The Donald most likely gave very angry and very clear guidance to his staff, all of them. The CENTCOM Commander has the lead on the Iranian issue and everyone is going to support his plan. Does this mean we are in calm waters? no. The Mullahs have want they want for now. They have a ship and the US / Brits have a ship. Do the Mullahs need to create the next event? most likely. How soon? That depends on how hard the sanctions are hurting? Are the Mullahs willing to sit down with the US? NO, not now and that leads to them making the next move, but the one thing we may be able to count on is the fact that next move is now being responded to by the right team...........Team CENTCOM. In the meantime, The Donald is on the road and pulling crowds that resemble 2016. If Iran strikes out, it will be impossible for the left to blame Trump, but don't fret, they will..................you know they will.
