Yesterday, I commented the situation in Egypt could
prove yet another golden opportunity for the Tsar.
Let me attempt to explain just what I was insinuating with
that comment.
I'll start by stating with a few simple facts.
First off, it's
common knowledge Putin overall objective is to reestablish Russia to a
position of worldly leadership.
Secondly, we all should realize one major objective in
reaching his overall goal is to gain as much influence in the Middle
East as possible, or should I say regain?
The Middle East is ruled by
the oil industry and the major economic engine of the Russian rebuild is fuel!
For over two years now, as Egypt
has struggled to normalize it's day to day status in the world, Putin has
watched the West struggle even more than Egyptian leadership over the concept
of how to "deal with" Egypt 's
problems.
In short, the Tsar heard and continues to hear opportunity
knocking and he is not one to let such event simply pass him by.
Ok, let's jump onto another subject that will help me prove
my primary point.
Everyone is talking about pulling the funding for the
Egyptian Military and the good Lord knows the US sees this topic turning into a
political football.
One argument is based on the premises that the Egyptian
Military needs the US
military aid to keep it's ability to function.
Is that a valid argument?
The answer is yes, but only if the Egyptian military is not
offered other options.
Could the Tsar step in and offer a military conversion to
the Egyptian Military?
Yes, but such a huge undertaking would take time as in
several years.
How would the interim period of the conversion be covered?
Enter the Saudis!!!
Would we stop military sales to Saudi if we knew they were
sending it to Egypt
to cover their needs while the Tsar retools them?
My hunch is that would be a far more emotional decision than
cutting off Egypt .
Nothing like providing the Tsar yet another customer as he
is busy filling the orders of the first one.
Side note: What is the second primary source of retooling
the Russian Empire..... yep.. Military sales!!!!
And who would pay for the expensive cost of this conversion?
Back to the Saudi answer!
It should become very clear just how vital the Middle East is to the Tsar and the rebuilt Russian
Empire.
So, if the course of action for the West is to abandon the
Egyptian Military, then what is the true cost of doing so?
As is always the case, the Middle East
is a Chest Board level event and the West cannot come to the table ready to
play Checkers!
Oh.. By the way... has anyone really figured out why Putin
is so eager to have the conflict in Syria continue for at least another
year?
If not... here is my hint and I will talk about it on
Friday.....
Think 2014....
Think Winter of 2014.....
