SEPTEMBER 18TH .. THE WEEK AHEAD

Starting this week, the Middle East is only going get more complicated and most likely more dangerous.

Lets take a look at the " Big Picture" before things get more confusing.

Yemen: 

If anyone thought that just because Yemen has been off the radar for the past two months it was no longer a valuable topic, they were sadly mistaken.

Most of us who have been watching and talking about Yemen are convinced a potential Civil War is more likely than at anytime in the Arab Spring.  ( I still refer to the Arab Spring as the " Tunisian Virus" in my little world).

I would speculate Iran has not pushed their 'plan' for Yemen as hard as they could be given they are placing most of their hope for ' Distraction' on the Palestinian Statehood issue.

Iran's  fallback plan included Yemen and I am sure it still does.

The problem with Yemen, at the moment, is internal and tribal.

The youthful University Students are no longer the center of attention.

The issue is not based on what tribes are going to support the Radical Islamist in Yemen and what tribes are going to be loyal to the current government?

The violence witnessed today, some of the worst in the past four months, is a grave indication of where things are heading.

AQAP  plans for Yemen has become the most disturbing issue to the West.

They are perfectly positioned to take full advantage of the turmoil surrounding the capital and the government.

The government struggles with tasking troops to deal with AQAP issues and keeping the capital from falling to the protestors.

The US and the West struggles with knowing the AQAP issue is alive and well in Yemen and not being seen as supporting an unpopular government that   is now under the Arab Spring spell.

How bad Yemen can become is anyone's guess right now.

How Saudi deals with the Yemen issue just became, as they were fearing, a secondary issue behind the Palestinian Statehood event.

AQAP and Iran can bring pressure to Saudi and the GCC right now that they simply are not ready for.

The good news is, AQAP and Iran are not necessarily on the 'same sheet of music'.

Syria:

Slowly but surly the opposition, in my opinion, is getting it's act together.

I think it is obvious they are receiving " outside help" and that is a topic for conversation all on it's own.

What I found interesting this week was watching the protestors burn the Chinese flag and the Russian flag!

Nice to see the shoe on the other foot for once!

For anyone nation to be perceived as even being remotely understanding of Assad right now is politically dangerous.

The rumors of armed resistance from city to city continues to grow and event the more peaceful minded leaders and organizers are turning to violence.

Assad may not be close to being tossed out yet, but the idea of him staying in power seems less and less likely.

My hunch is Iran is quietly looking for a way to support some other acceptable government in  Syria and not lose control of Syria's actions.

As I have said before, if Assad even thinks Iran is contemplating abandoning him, his entire attitude is going to change.

The hint that could be happening is watching Assad's relationship with Turkey.

If he really...really... wants to take revenge on Iran potential betrayal, he will run to the Turkish government and do so very publicly.

That is a concept that could get him killed!

Turkey:

One of the most complicated issue taking place in the Middle East, even more complicated than the Arab Spring, is Turkey!

Many experts are both confused and actually worried on the course Turkey seems to be taking.

You have read my theory on what Turkey is up to and I am as confident now as I have been in my belief.

If one is to step way... way back from the events of the Middle East, one would see three major groups.

The reemerging Ottoman Empire ( Turkey)

The attempted reemergence of the Persian Empire ( Iran)

And the uncoordinated and frankly very fractioned Arab Union / Movement.

The old " Colonial Powers" don't count given they are not part of the potential change but rather the face of the past that is being changed... via the Arab Spring.

Oh ya.. in the middle of this madness is this place called Israel.

Turkey's apparent change in attitude towards Israel, if true and I think it is,  the most disturbing attribute of the " New Turkey".

No one really believes Turkey wants a war with Israel, but the history of so called civilized man has many chapters based on unwanted / unintended wars.

The idea that Turkey is positioning itself to be the new regional power is not that far fetched.

The lengths they are willing to go to in order to make this happen brings pure tension and speculation to the forefront.

Egypt:

Near-term issues for Egypt are going to prove to be real test for the Egyptian Military.

Sinai based attacks on Israel are a true nightmare for them.

Preparation for Palestinian   protest and possibly riots have them overwhelmed at the moment.

Stack on top of these issues the growing dissatisfaction with the election process and the Egyptian military is all but buried in stress.

For them to wake up and find out Israel has lashed out at yet another attack initiated from the Sinai, could easily prove to be too much for them to control.

Ok, this week could become one the history books will speak of for years to come.

The Middle East is a powder keg and the only ones that could benefit from it is Iran.

The GCC, the EU and the US have to come together quickly on a Varity of issues and it seems that is increasingly impossible to do.

As I have said time and time again.... Iran is the one that needs a distraction in order to hold onto Syria and their dream of a nuclear Persian Empire.

Although they will be seen in the history books as the ones instrumental in bringing the Middle East to the point of crisis, Israel will take the immediate blame.

Israel is backed into a corner, much to the delight of the young Arab youths who think that will bring about " change".

The fact of the matter is, the change they are about to live through will become a nightmare they simply couldn't imagine.