IRAN’S NAVY AND THE DEADLY GAME OF CHESS

So, The Iranian navy commander, not it’s members and there is a difference here, states they are ready to escort the Adrian Daryl-1, with their oil in it, it ordered to do so? A bold statement? Yes. An operation they could actually execute? Yes. An action they could accomplish in a conflict? Only if everything they sent on the mission had a desire to rest on the bottom of the very shallow bottom of the Gulf. Again, a bold statement? Yep. Ready to put the collective money where the mouth is? I bet not. But, and here is the real purpose of this post, this is as always a game of chess and this move is a calculated based on one assumption. Will the US prevent the “escort” from taking place? Brinksmanship? Oh boy, is it ever! I woke up this morning thinking the latest round of protest in Honk Kong was the issue of the day or perhaps the cartels ambushing the Mexican military again, but when I read this, that was it. This is the story of the day. Chess, a game played to the end and that is the danger here.

Moves:

It’s clearly the US’s move in this dangerous game and that move has the US contemplating very few options. Let the Mullahs escort the tanker and the perception advantage once again is clearly Tehran’s. Get between the tanker and any advancing Iranian ship and the advantage goes back to the US. Are US assets closer to the tanker than the Mullahs? Yes. Does that create a dangerous escalation choice for Tehran? Oh yes. Does that mean the that is the COA / Course of Action, the US will take? I have no idea! Figuring out the actions of DC now days is even more complex than this game of chess with the Mullahs. Remember, it’s Pon Farr time in the US and the only thing that matters right now are sound bites and trends in polling data. Twitter.... I forgot Twitter. In my perfect world, getting between that tanker or even seizing it before Iran’s navy can make it there, and that would take days, is the optimum move. If the US pulls that off, than the Mullahs may very well never give the order to escort the tanker. It could be the order was never going to be given in the first place. Could this be just another information operation by Tehran? Yes, it’s very possible. You know who is praying that’s true? Remember those Iranian crew members I referred to. A bluff, that’s what they are praying for. As for the US and UK Navy, can they tell if the Iranian ships are preparing to get underway? You bet. It’s the US move, but the right move is a smart one. Chess. A game that is played until there is Checkmate? Let’s hope not.