SNAP SHOT / 1ST WEEK OF OCT 2011:

 I've not done one of these for over two weeks now, so here we go.

EGYPT:

Confrontation is still the rule of the day nearly ten months after the great Arab Spring took hold in Egypt.

The Muslim Brotherhood still holds a majority of the cards and the military's fall from grace is growing worse with each passing day.

Most of the secular socialist youth are growing more and more fearful of ending up in a Sheri Law dominated government that declares Democracy was it's path to power.

Egypt's military has all that it can handle trying to hold on to some form of normal governance while  worrying about the emerging Ottoman Empire and the Palestinian statehood issue and Israel.

Stack on top of this list, the Egyptian economy is just shy of being a complete disaster.

One more stack item to think about.

If the time comes the US actually cast a Veto on the UNSC resolution for Palestinian statehood, the streets of Cairo will be a major impact area.

Don't forget the Brotherhood's desire to keep Egypt in a political and economic shambles.

Protesting is just a great tool to keep this going, even if the Brotherhood states they will not participate.

So, Egypt what is the status of Egypt as of Oct of 2011?

Hard to imagine what the post election environment will be for Egypt.

If the youth thinks the MB and elements associated with them hijacked the election, they will go right back to the streets.

The questions become how much longer can Egypt just sit around like one big Campus protest?

My bet is, it's going to be a long Winter for the Egyptian people.

ISRAEL:

I'm not sure when the last time was Israel got good news to start a week.

With all the talk about tensions with Turkey, it's hard to imagine Turkey actually setting itself up for an open confrontation with Israel.

The posturing by the Ottomans is a high risk adventure, given who could take advantage of the events.

Yep, I'm talking about Iran!

Event with Turkey are somewhat related to the current crisis with the Palestinian issue, but I'm not sure the world sees it that way.

A great cover story of how the conflict seems to be growing from an issue of oil and gas fields continues to get press coverage.

Israel's relationship with Greece  is seen as a counter to the Turkish attitude towards Israel, but perception is the key when it comes to the world media and social networks.

How Iran plays the Palestinian event has been reviewed time and time again, but still the world seems to miss the basic premise; the fall of Assad and Syria sets many other events into motion.

No one has contemplated how these items may interact more than Israel, but that is no guarantee the reaction will be the right one.

Simply put, Israel continues to face the most troublesome and frankly  the most dangerous times since the founding of their country.

The US Secretary of Defense is there for a reason and the world needs to pay much closer attention to what is going on.

IRAN:

To double cross on not to double cross Assad, that is the question inside Iran.

The next key issue is, who is deciding?

The conflict between the Iranian / Persian Nationalist and the Muslim Fanatic is only made the concept of predicting Iran's actions more difficult to predict.

Predicting what Iran is up to or going to be up to is vital to the whole world right now and political infighting is not just a sideshow.

If Iran is going to find a Post Assad relationship, they will have to do it with Ottoman influence taken into consideration.

Creating a violent response over the Palestinian statehood event is an option Iran has with little anyone can do about it.

To save Assad with a regional distraction or not is most likely based on Iran's ability to build a Post Assad plan for Syria.

Tomorrow I will give my update on the GCC and how the Gulf States are coming back into play after months of being off the radar.

It's not going to stay that way for much longer.

The Arab Spring / Summer  / Fall / is heading for the Arab / Europe / American Winter.

Yes.... I said Americas. 

More to follow.