THE CONTINUING THREAT OF A SPLIT IN HAMAS!

It appears the threat of a potential split inside Hamas continues.

To keep this story  simplistic, it continues to be about the part of Hamas that is drawing closer to the MB along with the Pa and that faction of Hamas that is wishing to side with Iran and the more radical elements of some of the Sunni groups.

The question continues to be, is this potential split an advantage for the West or a dangerous turn of events?

From Iran's perspective, they would not require  the entire Hamas organization loyalty  to Iran in order to conduct operations against Israel.

If we accept that fact, then the split may take place sooner than we think and the PA will continue its process of becoming the Palestinian MB. ( My opinion of where Abbas is heading.)

So, the real friction becomes, who controls what ground in Gaza?

Who gets to keep the tunnels and the funds that come from that smuggling operations?

The tunnels are vital to continuing the flow of arms into Gaza, so we should think the more radical element of Hamas will not relinquish this slice of land.

Now, it can be argued the amount of arms needed to start a conflict with Israel are already in place, but remember... more than just arms pass through those tunnels.

Truly the lifeline for Gaza is made up from some percentage of goods passing.

Would this allow the more radical element of Hamas to control the commerce of Gaza?

Would the PA and the split faction of Hamas in Gaza allow this?

Egypt and the MB can address this to some extent by opening the flow of above ground trade into Gaza, but that would take coordination with Israel.

Israel must chose it's battles carefully given the situation with Iran and being seen as not reaching out to a PA/ Hamas "reformed" organization on the simple matter of trade would be a real risk.

It's is clear to see, a split Hamas is a far more complex issue than most would understand.

The issue of Hamas' struggles are not even making it to the Western Press, but then again why should they... all eyes are on Syria.

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=259159