CONTINUED DISCUSSION ON THE FUTURE OF HEZBOLLAH.

 The bottom line is simple; Hezbollah is  at a crucial turning point.

They must finally decide, and do so soon to stick with Al Assad and his

Boss, Iran, to the bitter end or begin to find a way to survive the Sunni /

MB / movement.

Now, I know many will say Hezbollah is already a political party....

perception... it's what drives the Middle East...

 In the Middle East, to the young men, Hezbollah is a organization of

Warriors... Freedom fighters.. Not politicians.

To Iran, Hezbollah is a proxy weapon against Israel and the West.

To the  young men who believe that fighting and killing is the only true path in life, there is nothing political about Hezbollah.

Hezbollah's strength is not measured by it's elder political leaders with Academic backgrounds.

It's power is fear and it's fear is based upon it's weapons and skills in using them.

So you see, Hezbollah may have a political branch, but that "branch" is secondary to the real Hezbollah.. the military side of Hezbollah.

Even with all their tactical power and strategic impact in the region and the world, Hezbollah is worried and grows more worried with each passing day.

Hezbollah watched the division build inside of Hamas and the announcement

last week of Hamas abandoning Al Assad did not go unnoticed.

Their future is as unpredictable now as it has ever been.

Hezbollah also knows Iran is running out of friends and time.

They no longer trust Hamas and Al Assad is becoming more and more toxic to

the Arab world with each passing day; an Arab world Iran must count on in a War with Israel.

Supporting Al Assad is damaging Hezbollah's reputation close to the point of

no return, and Iran knows the same holds true for them.

The very idea the Arab World would come to the aid of Iran in a conflict

with Israel grows dimmer by the minute; as if it was ever truly an option!

I am at a loss as to why the media has not picked up on the desperate

situation Iran finds itself in.

The  worn out strategy of  Sanctions, a tool that usually leads to

conflicts not prevention .... just ask Japan... is not going to solve the

problem..

It may give political cover to kick the Iranian can down the road past

November 0f 2012, but it will not make the Iranian issue go away!

In the US military, there is a saying, " Hope is not a plan". 

If someone "hopes" the Arab Spring will rise in Iran before a war is needed, then that is disastrous planing base on "hope"! 

 Sanctions:

It is a huge mistake to judge Iran's status by simply looking at their

economic situation; a failed concept time and time again.

 Lebanon:

If the March 8th Cabinet falls, then it will be because Hezbollah has

decided it should happen.

If Hezbollah decides to let it fall, then they have decided to stay the

course with Al Assad and Iran.

That is how the Sunni will see it!

If Hezbollah is willing to take this step, then they are willing to bring

the Sunni / Shia / Iran / Al Assad / battlegrounds to Lebanon.

That is how Lebanon will see it!!

Again and again, I will make this point; Iran  cannot afford to lose Hezbollah and Hezbollah must decide it's  future soon.

The events in Lebanon may hold the answers!