THE BATTLE FOR RAQQA? A THUMB IN THE EYE.... I AM CONFUSED!
This may seem like a reoccurring question as of late, but
let me ask it anyway.
Why now?
Why the US manipulated “announcement” of this operation? It’s
too late to do Hillary any good. It’s not going to be completed, if it could be
completed, before Obama leaves office. On the surface it seems to be a real
thumb in the eye of the Ottomans and their leader is not known for being
unresponsive to being thumbed in the eye. Timing is the centerpiece of politics
and the timing of this operation is suspect at best.
US General Dunford’s trip to see his Turkish counterpart
makes this issue even more interesting. Not only had the US stated the Turks
would not be part of any operation to retake Raqqa, but it also appears the US
and “others” didn’t bother informing the Turks, our NATO partners, the
operation was about to start. For the record, US four Star Generals don’t
travel, unannounced, to make small talk. They typically have one of two goals to
accomplish on such a trip. They ether initiate the agreement to start a major
planning operation, a preliminary event, or they show up as soon as an uncoordinated
event is underway for the purpose of mending fences and or delivering an
explanation of actions to their counterparts. In this case, I would be willing
to bet the General’s mission was to minimize the damage to an already fragile
relationship. It will not take the Egodan long to fashion his response to this announcement.
He is a talk first, think later kind of guy.
Did I mention this “recapture mission” is somewhat
misleading in it’s very explanation? Recapture for whom? Assad? The recognized government,
like it or not, of Syria? So the US and “others” are recapturing territory
inside a sovereign nation, but not doing so for the recognized government of
that nation? The recaptured land will be
given to the same group that is fighting to overtake the seated government in
Syria?
Never in a Vacuum.
In a conflict where intelligence is gathered at all levels
by more organizations than you can count, does anyone think this event was
planned, agreed to and prepped without just about everyone knowing it was going
to take place, not to mention the months of news statements stating an
operation like this one was going to take place? Who was surprised by the announcement?
Other than the American people, you know, the ones paying for it, this operation
was probably right up there with the rest of the poorly kept “secrets” dealing
with Syria. If key players, the Tsar, the Sultan, Assad, Persians and the GCC, Sunni
governments knew it was coming, does anyone think the Daesh didn’t know?
The Kurd conundrum.
Let’s assume, my favorite game if you have read my blog over
the past few years, the fight for Raqqa ends with the Daesh being defeated? Who
is going to turn the water back on? Who is going to rebuild the city? Assad?
Well, it may be his country, but he is not invited to the event and the odds
are he would not be invited to claim part of his country.
Are the supporters of this plan going to place the Kurds in
charge of managing / governing Raqqa? What has been the driving issue for the
Turks since the day the Syria Civil War started? Yep. The Kurds and Kurdish
land near the Turkish border. What part of this plan seems to be a poor fit?
Who gave it the stamp of approval and what is the daily cost, not to mention
the threat of loss of lives, to the American people? Do they even care?
Deal.
It seems I just addressed this issue of “deals” a few days
ago, but then again, dealing is the lifeblood of international relations.
Was this operation signed off on by the Russians? Is the
relationship between the US and Russia stable enough to work out the kinks of
yet another epiphany with the Kurds? Is the US thumbing the Tsar’s eye as well
as the Turks? Who thought this plan all the way through? Somehow, I think I
have once again given the US administration more credit than they deserve.
If no “deal” was struck before this event, at least not with
the Turks or the Russian, then once again, I have to ask the initial question;
why?
Just noise.
Would anyone be surprised if this action was just another
example of the US announcing a “plan” and having no intent of it leading to
anything? Are we looking again at words and a few million dollars in jet fuel
and smart bombs and the next thing you know, someone in DC will be talking
about how the US is taking the fight to Daesh!
Smoke and mirrors! Hollow Carbs? More political
grandstanding?
Should the Russians or the Turks or Iran or even Assad be
upset by this event, or have they become accustomed to the US and its hairband,
political stunts? Will any of them take advantage of this event
to once again make US foreign policy look like a rudderless ship.
Raqqa! Chapter four hundred and fifty-five in the saga of
American Foreign policy lost at sea! An eight year journey that is about to
have a new Captain at the helm!
Raqqa; I’m still confused!
