Saturday, July 21, 2012





















SECOND FRONT... SECOND OFFENSIVE OPERATION!!

For months, clashes have taken place around and even in the vitally important city of Aleppo, but all of those events were minor in nature.

These reports from Aleppo seemed to signal a change and that change is just more bad news for Assad.

Why Aleppo?

The concept of attacking Damascus and then as soon as Assad's forces seem committed to countering in the capital, shifting the offense to another, distant, location is classic.

All last week, the people of Aleppo, who have basically watched in fear for the past sixteen months, witnessed the capital city under siege; only wondering if they were next.

It didn't take long to get the answer they were horrified of.

Damascus may be the capital, but Aleppo is the economic engine of Syria.

The actions against Aleppo have another chilling impact on Assad's forces.

Just when Assad was thinking he may get the upper hand on Damascus, he receives word Aleppo is under attack.

Aleppo, the city Assad's business supporters count on has now become a primary target of the rebels and this is no accident.

Now, stack on top of this the issue of the border crossings and a clear picture becomes  very apparent.

Assad is completely on the defense!

For months, the Syrian government and Iran have had the luxury of deciding how hard to come down on the rebels and what locations to punish.

That has completely changed now.

Perception rules the Middle East and the overwhelming perception right now is the rebels are winning, a fact that is driving Tehran absolutely crazy!

What I find interesting about the past few days and I have been somewhat stunned at the ignorance of the "talking heads" on most media stations, is the complexity of the rebel's actions.

Assaulting Damascus..

Follow on Assaults in Aleppo.

Simultaneous / multiple / attacks on virtually every major border crossing on all four sides of Syria.

All three of these events point to a major point the media and the rest of the world seems to overlooking.

The rebels are planning at a level far more sophisticated than anyone gave them credit for.

Up until last week, every "expert" analysis out there painted the same picture; A rebel forces that lacked the logistics.. leadership and skill to be a truly threatening force.

Well, that's why I always avoid the title of "expert"... . it usually leads you to looking like an idiot!!!

The rebels are so corridinated, so supported and so tactically capable, it is no wonder the Russians and Iran are accusing them of getting help.

Again, the fatal error of not giving the rebels credit for knowing what they are doing.

Any military leader will tell you, the one critical mistake one can make in battle is underetimating your enemy!!

Not only has Assad done this, but so has the rest of the world.

Now, do the rebels have help?

It depends  on what your definition of help is.

Are they getting logistical support / guns / ammo / cash?

Yes...

Are they getting someone helping them figure out where to attack  and how to attack?

Probably not.

Here is an interesting point to consider when someone tries to explain away the rebel's successful operations.

The US has been " helping" the Iraq and Afagan militaries for years and look what that has lead to!

If there is one thing the US government has learned in the past ten years, it's the age old adage of " you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make them drink"!!

"Help" is only effective if the group you are "helping' has the skill, determination and courage to utilize the "help".

One thing the world needs to stop doing  is selling the rebels short.

What you have seen them achieve in the past week is about 85 percent their doing accompanied by an idiot leader in Syria and a military that is not near as good as the world was lead to believe.

Not only is this Syrian military not as good as they were painted to be, but they are demoralized and exhausted.

If the rebels have a flaw, it's the same flaw the US had with the Iraq / Afghanistan  campaigns.... an Exit Plan!!!

That is the topic of my next post...

No comments:

Post a Comment