Given the tensions that are once again rising in the Middle East, it's easy to talk about what might happen.  this post today is not an attempt on my part to make that argument. I've been down that road already, more than once. What I have attached here is part of the scene setter for my book on what the next Word War may look like, how it will take place and what will be the outcome. I know I have often spoke of not supporting those  who are out to push a book as they try to capitalize on some current crisis in the world. Trust me, that is NOT what I have attempted here. I started this journey several years ago at the request of a good friend and his dream of seeing me put my "Theory" on paper. As your read this, understand my fears of immature nations with advanced weapons as well as the open desire of China to show the world, "China's time has come" . What I am attempting to show you is what might take place almost any day or even any hour right now. I have finished the book and I am just waiting for my Boss's review, insert the word Wife here, before I push it over to Amazon. Do I want to make a bunch of money? Not really. Do I won't to be known as Nostradamus? Lord I pray I never will be compared to that name. But know this. I believe with all my heart this is close to how the human race could be set back a thousand years or more. No, we will not perish from the Earth, but future generations may look upon the ruins of our great civilization much as the tribes in England looked upon the ruins of the roman Empire scattered across England. as i have stated before, this account of what took place, five years after the third world war, is not intended to be a novel. it has no heroes. it has no love story. it is not meant to be dramatic or a thriller. it's the story of a military officer who tried his best to capture what happened and how it led to the downfall of the modern world. if you stop to wonder just what may take place, then my job is done. if you want to read the book, well that's up to my Boss / editor in Chief! 

THE MIDDLE EAST AND THE BEGINNING OF THE CRISIS:

Iran’s Miscalculation

_A

s is the case with all wars, this one had a point of origin. Prior to the start of the war, I wrote a blog post about the US attack on Syria in April of 2017: (https://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com) I had been posting on this site since the Arab Spring began, as I was one of the many who believed that the events in the Middle East could lead to a biblical prediction coming true. My point was this: Many conflicts over the past few thousand years have been ignited by reckless actions. Actions that were poorly thought through. Actions that were based on emotions and an unsound understanding of possible repercussions. Throughout the history of war, concepts such as Second- and Third-Order Effects or the Law of Unintended Consequences had seldom been given the level of importance they should have been. The events in Syria in 2017 were no different. The attack by the US on a Syrian airbase was reckless not just on the part of the US, but also on the part of the Russian government and the Iranian leadership, leadership that provoked the event to begin with. When the Russian government decided to make Iran responsible for the event that nearly brought two superpowers to war, it became clear that the Iranian dream of becoming the next regional power were gone. The Tsar, as I called Putin at the time, had to make a decision, and cutting lose his Iranian puppet was far less damaging to Mother Russia than continuing down the road to war with the US. Both nations were desperately looking for an “off-ramp” from the event, and trading away Iran’s plans was an easy action for Putin. It’s difficult to prove that this agreement was made, and it’s possible that the US never knew the Russians had decided that Iran would be collateral damage in a far more important plan. In the end, the future of Mother Russia was the nightmare of the Persian dream. Iran would not control their future in the region, and that placed the Persians in a position they could not accept.

Out in the cold. That is where Iran suddenly found itself. Gone were the dreams of the old men in Tehran. Gone was the vision of the new Persian Empire. The picture painted was not only believable, it was true. The Iranians had secretly convinced Assad that European Christians could not decide the future of Syria. Not again. Just as President Trump was ready to capitulate on the status of Assad in Syria, the Iranians realized why. Assad’s time was coming to an end. That was the “deal” the Russians had struck with the US. Russia would bring the US to the table on the issue of NATO in Eastern Europe, and the US would get what they wanted, Assad out of power. It may have been a plan that would take time, but in the end the Iranian plan for Assad was going to be swept away. Worse yet, it seems the deal was struck and the Iranians were not given a chance to vote. The region was changing and peace was being negotiated without a voice from the Persians. The Russians would pay hollow homage, but those who tracked the region understood where the Iranians stood. The Iranian informed Assad of the Russian plot for his demise, along with a plan to make the US and Russia’s compromise fall apart. The plot would call for extreme measures by the Iranians, but the risk was far less than the known outcome of the Russian / US agreement. Iran would create a new dynamic in the region, and the prominence of the Persians would not be denied. As for the Russian / US plan, it was simplistic and unified. Unified by the Arab League, the US, and the Gulf Cooperative Council ,GCC, and all the while the Russians remained publicly opposed, as that was the stance that would make the whole process work. A charade on their part that just about everyone saw through. Iranian backed forces were to leave Syrian soil by an unrevealed date. It was Lebanon in 2005 all over again, at least from the standpoint of the Persians. Syria’s future would be decided by the superpowers, and Iran was to abandon their dreams immediately. When the Iranian leadership became aware of this concept, the result was dramatic. Tehran was a tinderbox. With the ever-present tension among the so-called “moderates” and the hardliners, this insult could have only been seen as a huge, perhaps devastating setback for the government in power. Iran’s leadership was injured and injured badly. They had gambled to save their dreams for the region and lost. Wounded and without their historical protector, Russia, not only did Iran’s leadership believe they were vulnerable, their true enemy was convinced. Saudi saw an opportunity, and a young prince’s vision of victory was almost immediately put into action. Iran’s meddling in the future of the Middle East was ending, and the Saudis were more than willing to hasten the process.

A byproduct of this “deal” would also set into motion the pending crisis. The disengagement of Shia militias in Syria was a process that did not go according to plan. Yes, the Iranians had no leg to stand on as even Assad understood the price he would pay for insisting the Iranians remain in his country, but, as is often the case, departure proved to be almost as damaging as staying. There was no validated exit plan designed around the withdrawal of Iranian support in Syria. The only thing that was truly holding the Syrian military together was Iranian support and Russian airpower. The rumor of the Iranian departure exposed what everyone already knew. The Syrian military was incapable of defending its homeland. Russia’s reaction to the Iranian displeasure did further harm to the Syrian government. Putin was not a man known for taking betrayal lightly. The Iranians were expected to follow the Russian lead, even if they disagreed where the Russians were taking them. When it became clear to Moscow that the Iranians were not cooperating with the process the Russians had agreed to, it was predictable what would happen next. Creating a peaceful Syria or even a peaceful region was never the Russian plan. Leaving Syria to disintegrate further was a price the Russians were willing to pay for the desired outcomes in Eastern Europe, but watching Syria fade away was almost more than the Iranians could stand.

In the end, Russia had what it had been working towards from the very first day it intervened in Syria. The US had brought the one topic to the table Putin longed for. NATO. If the US would agree to stop the spread of NATO alliances into Eastern Europe, Putin would walk away from the Persians and let the Middle East travel a path determined by someone else. Some were even of the opinion that the region would finally stabilize. The Iranian threats to the region would be gone; at least, that was the theory. As most theories go, it didn’t hold true. Desperate to show that they could still influence the future of the Middle East, they could decide the fate of nations around them. Iran pushed Iraq into yet another crisis that would impact the Saudis more than most realized. Shia militias pulling out of Syria were tasked with creating a level of disruption not seen in Iraq since the Daesh nearly drove into Bagdad. The Shia militias and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) easily manipulated Iraq’s slide into violence.

Within a month of the understood, undeclared plan between the Russians and the US, the Iranians had also turned up the heat in Yemen. It was the events in Yemen that began the spiral into war, not only for the region, but also for the rest of the world. Deliberate planning by the Iranians mixed with the overreaction of the Saudi leadership led to an escalation in Yemen not seen to that point. Few believed that the events in Yemen would lead to a regional crisis, a crisis that only took three days to explode into something the nations of the Gulf had not witnessed since the 1973 war with Israel. Iran’s desperate attempt to stay relevant in the region resulted in the region being the first casualty of what is now considered the Third World War. Again, the speed of events overwhelmed almost everyone who tried to control or even understand what took place with Iran. Iran wished to show its relevancy, but, in the end, all it achieved was its destruction. When the dust settled in just a few short days, it was obvious Iran had not only miscalculated the impact of its actions on the region, but it had set into motion the destabilization of the entire world. In reality, Iran had begun a process that the Chinese had anticipated for years.

Saudi Arabia’s Overreaction

Iran’s intent in Yemen had been known for several years prior to the deployment of Shia militant units, units that were openly supported by the IRGC. Iran understood the movement of weapons, and specialized units into Yemen would not go unnoticed. To Saudi Arabia, the concept of blaming Iran for the prolonged conflict in Yemen was nothing new. What was new was the sudden increase in support by Iran. Support that was clearly out in the open. The coincidence of this sudden increase of open support in conjunction with the ordered withdrawal of Iranian-backed forces in Syria was there for everyone to see. The problem was, the decision to react to the Iranian actions were slow and mixed at best. The Russians were indifferent to the Iranian plans to increase support in Yemen. As far as they were concerned, transferring trouble in the region was not part of the deal they had quietly reached with the Americans. When the Saudis realized what was taking place, the protest fell on deaf ears. Agreements were being made in the region, and once again those agreements were based upon old colonial powers and world superpowers, not the actual nations in the region.

When US intelligence was shared with Saudi on what was being moved into Yemen, the reaction should have been an indicator of just how quickly the event might escalate. It was clear that the ships off the coast of Yemen were delivering Iranian weapons. What was stunning was the delivery of well-armed and well-trained battle-hardened units. Units that had seen three years of operations in Iraq and Syria. Units that were clearly placed in Yemen to threaten the Saudi-led operations there. Saudi reaction to the US intelligence should have been another indication of just how desperate they were becoming. Saudi understood the US’s ability to track these types of movements. It was also clear to them that the process had been taking place for days, and yet there had been no warning. In their minds, once again, the US and others were making decisions without the input of the nations in the area. Trust was a concept the Saudis had grown accustomed to not relying upon. News of this dramatic escalation of the crisis in Yemen was covered by all the major Western networks. Speculation about what it would mean to the conflict was the hot topic until Saudi Arabia gave the world their answer. It would mean war. A war that would quickly spin out of control.

Two days after the verification of Iranian-supported units arriving in Yemen, the Saudis reacted. The attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran’s naval ship supporting the offloading of combat units shocked everyone who was paying attention. The act was uncoordinated with the US or any other nation that the US was aware of. The decision to attack seems to have been made by the Saudi government within hours of the US intelligence briefing. US intelligence intercepted the communications between Saudi military commanders, but the typical notification process was too cumbersome and prevented a US response prior to the act. Simply put, by the time US leadership understood what was about to take place, the attack was underway. The end result was a stunned US administration and nothing less than pure panic among Western and regional news media organizations.

Social media coverage of the attack was on the Internet within fifteen minutes of the strike. Fishermen in the area took photos of the smoke plume and then attempted to help those who were in the water. Posted images and short video clips depicted the event for the first several hours, and nowhere were these images more powerful than in Tehran. A retaliation by Iran was anticipated, but, again, the speed of the response was not anticipated. The Iranian vessel was attacked at 8 a.m. CST, and the second attack by Saudi Arabia took place within ten minutes of the initial attack. The Western media headlines of open conflict between Iran and Saudi and its GCC Allies were poorly developed, and the response of other key nations was confusing and seemed uncoordinated. Canned words such as “we urge all parties to show restraint in this crisis” were completely ineffective. People couldn’t get timely information on the event from the standard media or government statements, so they went to what they knew, social media. Within two hours, Iranian, Saudi Arabia and the US were in a conflict that seemed uncontrollable and the world could not believe what it was witnessing.

The Iranian Navy’s encounter with the US Navy off the coast of Yemen took place somewhere during the second attack event launched by Saudi Arabia. Within one hour of the event between the US and Iranian navies, an exchange was occurring in the Strait of Hurmuz. Restraint was being called for, but only from those who were not actively engaged in the conflict. After the first several hours of the event, it was clear that the primary objective of the US and its allies was to keep this event limited to a naval operation. That objective changed rapidly as the incident continued to unfold. It’s still not clear whether Iranian missiles struck the oil refineries on the coast of Saudi first, or whether the Saudis attacked the naval bases of Iran. What was clear was that this phase of the crisis was no longer confined to the waterways of the region. Tanker traffic in the straits attempted to follow the known protocols for a conflict in the region. In the early stages of the conflict, those measures seemed to be working. Civilian ships were not targeted for the first several hours. All tankers made full speed for the safety of open waters. When the first missile strikes took place in Saudi, the threat shifted quickly to the landside of the fight, and many of the ships in the area were able to continue to make full speed. That changed shortly after the initial strikes on Saudi refineries. The accuracy of some of the Iranian anti-ship weapons was underestimated, but worse than that, the location of Iranian boats that could attack both landside and seaside operations had been completely miscalculated. Covert boat capabilities, boats that were not recognized as Iranian weapons platforms, were able to inflict damage far beyond anything that had been anticipated. The regular Iranian naval vessels took an anticipated level of attack from both the US and the British task force in the Straits. But, the Iranian ability to counterattack soft targets, especially land-based facilities, was something the rest of the world was not prepared for. Iran’s priority of effort surprised the US, and that required time to recalculate counter actions.

Saudi Arabia had set the conflict into motion, but Iranian leadership had begun the process that the Saudi government could not ignore. The decision to attack the Iranian operations off the coast of Yemen was one that propelled further events, and that was an issue the Saudi government may or may not have anticipated. It should also be noted that this phase of the conflict produced a reality many had not anticipated. Both the Iranians and the Saudis had weapons in their arsenals that could do damage far greater than their leadership realized. Trained well enough to operate advanced weapons platforms, both sides inflicted damage on the other much faster and with a degree of severity both had not anticipated. This strategic misunderstanding led the Saudi government to believe that they could simply disable the first Iranian ship off the coast of Yemen and perhaps send a larger warning to the rest of the world. A warning on the tolerance level for Iranian “meddling” in Saudi affairs. Whether that was their intent is unclear, but there is speculation that the Saudi government never truly understood the potential consequences of their actions. By the end of the first day, those not directly involved in the conflict were demanding that the whole event be stopped immediately. More ominously, those in the area who believed that the event would continue to spiral out of control would not wait for their interest to be jeopardized. Preventive actions were decided upon by a few key nations, and that set into motion the escalation that pushed this crisis outside the Middle East.

Israel’s Fateful Actions

The fate of Syria was to be decided by the Russians and the US. The negotiated issues were informally briefed to Israel by the US and Russia. Israel’s concerns over Syria were simplistic. Hezbollah and the Iranian-backed militias could not and would not be allowed to exist in what was left of southern Syria. Even more important, the power of Hezbollah in Lebanon was to be reduced drastically. With the loss of Iranian influence inside Syria, the ability for Tehran to control the events in Lebanon were becoming nothing more than a shattered dream. The Iranian plan to create a new level of crisis inside Iraq was less concerning for Israel, but the idea of active, Shia militias supporting a much-improved Hezbollah was a known nonstarter for the Israelis. The US intelligence capabilities for monitoring the actions of Iran’s Shia militias as well as the IRGC were well known. But Israel was the leading expert on that topic, and as such it was no surprise to them when the support shifted to Yemen. There was even speculation that Israel informed Saudi Arabia of those actions prior to the US. Within hours of the Iranian and Saudi conflict, the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) recommended a plan that had been developed several years prior to the current actions. This plan called for the complete destruction of all Hezbollah assets in Lebanon as well as in Syria. Israel believed that Iranian leadership was heading into a death spiral; otherwise, why would they would openly send support into Yemen? Provoking Saudi would not be enough. To win the support of the Arab people and hopefully split the GCC nations’ commitment, the accusation of a Saudi-Israeli secret partnership would have to be exposed. What was then underway in Saudi and Iran would lead to Iran lashing out with the most effective tool they had, Hezbollah. Israel would not wait for Iranian backed missiles to rain down on them. The IDF would enter the fight with Iran, not as the secret partner of Saudi but as the loyal ally of the US. A partner the US wanted desperately to leave out of the conflict, given that the US truly believed the event could be stabilized within a few days.

In the early morning hours of the second day, IDF raids into Lebanon destroyed the hope of a limited conflict. The Iranians had what they wanted, a battle cry of betrayal. A betrayal by the custodian of the two holy mosques. The picture they so desperately wanted the world to see, a unity of Israel and the GCC, was there. But the Iranians realized too late that this unity didn’t matter. Even more importantly,  it didn’t matter to the Arab population in general. As they watched the crisis quickly encompass nations outside the region, the fear of what was taking place left no room for anger based on betrayal. The ability to communicate in the region, at least with respect to public communication, was lost after the third day. What the people of Egypt thought compared to what the people of Jordan or Saudi thought never mattered.

Israel’s actions in Lebanon were more than dramatic. The events of the first day were stunning enough, but the strikes on Hezbollah by the IDF came without warning and at a tempo that let everyone know the actions of the IDF, this time, were unlike any in the recent past. The ability of the Israel military to mobilize and fight at the same time was the byproduct of years of deliberate planning and training. The telltale signs of mobilization that Hezbollah had anticipated and even counted on didn’t take place. A concept of initiating military operations with little or no warning, a process known as “Cold Start”, was not an IDF brainchild, but they had perfected it to a level unseen anywhere else in the modern world. Southern Lebanon was a warzone in a matter of minutes, and the strikes in Beirut and the Beqaa Valley were nearly seamless with the initial strikes into southern Lebanon. Reaction to the Israeli attacks on Hezbollah strongholds only added to the hysterical reporting coming in from all over the region.