TRUMP AND TURKEY’S “DEMANDS”
It’s very clear the future of NATO, the future of the US’s
relationship with Turkey and the status of the Syrian conflict are not on what
we call, “The ten meter target list”. Simply put, they are not “Hot Button”
items, at least not this week. As it should be, domestic issues will consume
the new US Administration’s first week or so in office. Other “issues” will
come up in the daily meetings, briefings, but its obvious President Trump is
out to show he is different. He’s out to prove as much as possible, “I mean
what I say”. That was evident with his actions first thing Monday am. But, as
the dust settles on everyone still in shock that he is in the White House,
other issues will continue to boil to the top and very few of them are going to
be more important or more emotional than the issues of Russia and NATO. As I’ve
said before, the US relation with Turkey is not a hot topic for the new
President, but Turkey’s role in NATO provides the topic with an above normal
ranking.
DEMANDS:
To put it politely, it appears the Turks are making demands
part of the initial rapprochement strategy with the new US President. To make it
simple, the Turks want Gulen and they want the US to stop supporting the PYD.
Now, President Trump has already been told by his team these demands would be
on the table long before the Turkish Deputy Prime Minister gave his press conference,
so some level of discussion has taken place on both topics. By the way, coming
across like you are making “demands” to a guy like Trump is a very poor
strategy! It works with passive, progressive people and Trump is anything but
that!
OPTIONS:
What does a Billionaire Businessman’s mind think of when
someone comes to the table “hard” from the beginning? What happens when the other
side starts with, “demands”? My bet is, the first reaction was or will be, “so,
what’s in it for us”? “What happens if we don’t give them Gulen? What happens
if we don’t stop support for the PYD? If we give them one or both, how does it
help us”? Yes, I know, this is somewhat the typical discussion any Department
of State or National Security Team would have with any President. The difference
is, Trump’s perspective was shaped by years of hardline, complex business deals
that had huge levels of risk, financial risk. Short answer; he thinks like a
Businessman, not a politician and that has been the worry of the professional political
elite from the day they thought he may go to the White House.
What if President Trump says “no”? What if he says “No” to
both issue or to one of them? Then what? What does Turkey do? Step away from
NATO? No! Let more refugees flood into Europe? No. That plan has run its course
and it was a concept the Tsar came up with anyway. So, what does Turkey do? How
mad does the Mad Turk get? Simplistic “upside vs downside” logic. If that is
what President Trump falls back on, a business model, then how does Turkey
react? Better yet, did anyone in Turkey formulate the potential responses that
might come from the new US President? Just how far did they think this through?
When you toss a hardline stance on to
the table from the very first meeting, you need to have a plan in case it all
goes bad! What’s Turkey’s “plan”?
OUTSIDE INFLUENCE:
Can the Turks take such a hardnose approach to the new US
Administration without anyone else having an opinion of what it might lead to?
Did the Turk’s share with anyone the stance they were going to take? Did anyone
else catch wind of it? If you guessed the Tsar, you win the prize! Remember
those “wedges” I have been talking about? Well, the Tsar has been driving
wedges for several years and the Ottoman wedge with the West is absolutely one
of his top three! So, it stand to reason Russia would anticipate Turkey’s
initial stance and they most likely have anticipated the possible courses of
action from the US, based on Trump’s personality profile. A profile they have
spent a great deal of time developing!
What does this stance by Turkey mean to the Tsar? Does it
help or hinder the Russian goal of weakening NATO? What are they anticipating the
most logical response from a person like Trump to be? Perhaps they even, behind
the scenes, helped Turkey formulate the stance? Piss Trump off, weaken NATO as
a second order effect? That would not surprise me in the least! Keeping Turkey
on an adversarial stance with the West / US / is a logical goal of the
Russians. Nudging a hothead like Egodan to do so is really fairly easy!
THE US OPTIONS:
As I stated before, the basic logic with President Trump
will go something like this. “What’s in it for us”? Question number two, “So
what”? Does the US need Gulen? Does it need to support the PYD? Does it make the US look weak? Does it send
the wrong “message” if he gives in on both demands? Hint, successful Businessmen
seldom give in! Is there a compromise on the two topics? In Trumps opinion, is
a compromise even worth thinking about? The complex side of this discussion,
when it finally takes place, will have some interjection from the Department of
State and the Intelligence Community and they will both address the issue of
Russia! Is this decision just about the relationship with Turkey or does the
Russia factor have to be injected? My vote is yes! The Russian “factor” must be
placed on the table. The issue is, the Trump Team has to get a very Attention Deficit
Disorder / ADD/ President to follow the logic. Yep. I would be willing to bet
you the Russian profile on Trump has him listed as “ ADD”! Will they leverage
that profile marker? You bet! Trump’s ability to listen to an entire, intel
breakdown of an issue is going to be a work in progress. Why do you think the
topic came up before he was ever even sworn in? Not a new issue when it comes
to US Presidents, but it will be an issue as that will impact how decisions are
made.
MY BET:
When will this issue of Turkey’s demands really come to the
table? When the Trump Team starts to really engage the Tsar’s Team, that’s
when! The one thing the Trump Team will be able to do is convince him to let
them do more homework, before they ask him for a final decision! “ Mr. President.
Let’s see where the Russians are with their relationship with Turkey. Let’s see
just how committed they are to their new so called relationship after we place
a few other ‘options’ on the table”! Can the US pull the Russians away from
Turkey? Do they even need to? Are there other “options” out there? One thing is
for sure. The future of the US relationship with Turkey will start as a bargaining
chip and it will not be Egodans chip to bargain with. Get use to it folks. The
Trump way of doing business is based on a very different formula than what has
been historically used by the US Department of State. Turkey's “demands” are just
one example of how things are going to be different!
By the way. I saw a
few French readers are passing my post around. Keep up the good work. An audience
I will address more and more in the near future. You have some interesting
times ahead of you.
