THE BATTLE FOR DAMASCUS AND IRAN
Several
times over the course of the past year and a half, I have commented on the
possibilities of the random planning for continued actions on Syrian soil even
after the fall of Assad!
I
believe it is now a commonly accepted viewpoint that Iran
has determined their ability to operate and support Hezbollah from inside Syria is
an achievable an acceptable goal.
The
rumors of training camps run by the Iranians have been spoken of for months now.
Logic
would have it these militias would provide Iran the opportunity to maintain
some acceptable control.
Having
said that, Assad must be thinking twice about what the real intentions of these
militias might be.
Are
they there to prop him up and support him, or are they there simply to run Syria ,
what is left of it, after the fall the government?
Personally,
I believe this theory is spot on.
Indications
of Assad's demise are about as hard to determine as they
could possibly be.
Nevertheless,
in the past few days coordinated actions around the city of Damascus appeared to have an ominous tone for
the Syrian government.
Close
order combat inside the city of Damascus
renders weapons such as fighter aircraft and long-range artillery virtually
useless.
The
Syrian military can ill afford to abandon the city for the simple purpose of
leveling it given the fact that the last of their supporters are inside of the
same city.
Could
Damascus become the modern day Beirut ?
Could
battle lines be drawn virtually dividing the city as they did in the Lebanese
Civil War,
With
Iranian militias holding small pockets of territory and a unorganized divided
rebel movement that is much better destroying operations than they are
developing them or maintaining them is a formulary for sustaining conflict.
It's
so it appears the ingredients for a stalemate and a divided and virtually
nonexistent nation-state that was once called Syria have all come together.
Another
unfortunate risk now returns to the forefront!
Assad's
option of using WMDs is most likely predicated on his anticipated loss of Damascus .
For
quite some time now I have stated the Iranians truly hold the trigger on Syria 's
WMDs.
I'm
afraid the close enough in the timeline of such an event that my theory may be
put to test.
Unfortunately
these militias and the Islamic fundamentalist radical groups in Syria mixed with
the concerns of unaccounted for weapons of mass destruction also creates a
cocktail the Israelis will undoubtedly be unwilling to drink!
By
the time the president United States
visits Israel ,
there is a real possibility the topic will not be Palestinian statehood or even
the Iranian nuclear weapons program.
There
is even the possibility that by the time this meeting takes place in the region
will simply be too "hot" for the presence travel.
http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=302818
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/02/201321019911209655.html
