THE US DEPLOYMENT TO SAUDI ARABIA. NOW WHAT? 

All the talk Friday, that is until the whole soap opera of the Whistle Blower came back up, just like I knew it would, was focused on the "deployment" of US assets to Saudi Arabia. I watched how long it took for CNN to make this into yet another Trump crisis. two minutes. it took two minutes. " Is he getting the US into another conflict in the Middle East? Are we going to fight Saudi Arabia's battles for them".....and so on....and so on! Is this deployment a "big deal", or as Uncle Joe would say, " a BIG FU--ING Deal"? Short answer. No. What is being mobilized? If you guessed nothing but Air Defense, you might want to guess again. I will give you a hint. A Fighter Wing may just be on the hook as well, maybe more than one. PSAB. Look the place up. Okay. A deployment of a "limited" force to Saudi is the answer to ARAMCO being openly attacked by Tehran? Is that the proper response?  If you didn't read my blog post from a few days ago on the topic of, "bait", you might want to spend a few minutes to take a look. Again, is the limited deployment enough? Short answer, yes, it's enough. Doesn't seem like a major commitment right? Well, physically, it's not, but the message is clear. " Every time you act, the US's footprint increases". Is that the right message? Time will tell. Do I think that message will work? Now, that's an interesting topic. Let's dive into the answer.

Do the Old Men get, "messaging"?

 Is that a concept that pays dividends? Now, we get into an even deeper topic and one I'm going to bring back to the forefront of my conversations on US operations in the 21st Century. " Effects Based Operations", commonly refereed to as " EBO". What is it and how does it work? I will give you my short answer, an answer I base on a great deal of practical experience. EBO is the concept of making your enemy conduct themselves in a predictable pattern that is designed to achieve one's goals with maximum efficiency and economy of effort. My words, but trust me, it's a topic I know well. Alright. If the US's deployment is an action meant to shape the actions of Tehran, then what actions is DC looking for? Here comes the issue and it's a huge one. A percentage of the military's leadership truly understands EBO. The number of political leaders, to include those in the US DoS who could find EBO in a word game is nearly ZERO! Walk into a fifth grade math class and inform the kids they are about to take a quiz on quantum physics. The looks the kids would give  you would match eyebrow for eyebrow the political "leadership" in DC. Here is my point. when military commanders formulate COA's / Courses of Action / for DC, many concepts the commander's staff have been trained on for years are completely foreign to the very people the COAs are briefed to. What's typically the result? Well, it usually ends up with a nearly endless list of questions that rival, "why does 2+2=4? Why are the questions so........let me just put this in old Command words..... asinine? Again, it's fifth grade math students making decisions on concepts they have never been trained on. Someone answer me this? what is the formal training young political leaders are given? I'm not talking about the tour of the building or the three day "one over the world" they typically send their staffers to. Think about this for a minute. When it comes to asking the military to come up with a "plan", those who would on that task have been through years of what we call, PME / Professional Military Training. By the way, the best and most advanced training in the world takes place in the US military. So, what does the US end up with?  A group of political leaders who have just enough knowledge about the military to be dangerous and get still get votes. What they get is an extremely complex process reduced to a series of power-point slides so those in the room can keep up. Sorry, but I've been down this road and the truth hurts.   Why do you think you always hear the statement,  " I had no idea this is what we were going to do" or, " I was not briefed on this issue". Yes, yes they were briefed, but when they say, "okay, let's move on", than what do you expect. 

What does this lead to? 

Have I painted a ugly picture? yes. Does that mean this deployment to Saudi and the message DC thinks it will send may backfire? Do the old men in Tehran understand messaging? No, at least not in the same way the West does. Was this deployment meant to bring about a desired outcome from Tehran? Let's hope so. Does the leadership in DC know how to shape that outcome as it begins to unfold? No, at least history tells us so. Does that mean this deployment event might backfire? I hope not. There is only one thing the Mullahs understand and that is the fear of losing power. Stack that on top of their opinion Trump is handcuffed from taking real action in the Middle East and the desired outcome, if DC has one, may change and do so dramatically. If the physic's problem changes. Who do you want working on the new answer, the fifth grade math class or the physicist? Sorry. Not a good ending to this story, but sometimes, reality is not kind. By the way, I really want to go down the Rabbit hole of EBO, but I will do that on my podcast tomorrow.  

It will be on iTunes. You can find it under, Col Dans Viewpoint.