RAND CORPORATION REVIEW OF THE SELF-LICKING ICE-CREAM CONE.

            All right. My disclaimer upfront. RAND Corp. Have I read their “works for long? Try a few decades. Have I ever seen them come to the conclusion the US doesn’t need to spend huge  sums  of money and do so quickly? Nope. I mean, if you have followed them like I have, when was the last time you heard them say, “ In conclusion, the US need not worry for at least five to ten years and can reallocate defense spending to some other areas of society in the meantime”. Nope…..never! There’s always a pending crisis that must be averted by getting out the checkbook. Does RAND have a direct relationship with the West’s / US / Military Industrial Complex? Silly question, so let’s move on.

The latest report:

            Several sources addressed the latest RAND report  on the potential outcome of a war between the US and a combined China, Russian event and how the US would be beaten and beaten badly. I must confess, I’ve not read this latest report, but the comments I’ve have found lead me to believe it’s the same old song and dance. Spend and spend a lot and spend it quickly. Sidenote. Take a look sometime on who goes to work at RAND, or where ex-RAND members go. Enough said. Okay, so the scenario goes something like this. The Russians make a move on Ukraine and the Chinese make a move on Taiwan. It’s seems they both strike first and they both do so at nearly the same time. Now again, I’ve not read the report, yet, but I will tell you that is a huge “assumption” to have as a Starting point. It also appears the authors indicate just how bad the initial strikes are to the US’s ability to respond. Crippling seems to be the message. Alright, that’s where I toss the first BS flag.

Preparation for conflict:

            If you want to sell the idea of spending more money on more military hardware, then you have to paint a picture of threat and that threat has to be superior typically in strength or capability or both. For a report to indicate the US military would be caught unprepared for actions by the Chinese and Russians at the same time it would have to anticipate a complete failure on all intelligence operations on a global scale, to include US Allies. The discussion of losing US airbases before aircraft could be launched or moved can only be given a level of believability based upon a complete, “cold start” operation by both nations. Can the Russians and the Chinese coordinate a first Strike / Cold Start operation without enough indicators to warrant a higher alert status by Western forces? Someone better be able to show me that at the training and exercise level before I believe it. Look, again, I have not read this latest report, but the idea of losing such a significant percentage of combat capability from the very beginning seems to be self-serving, especially in the “you need to spend more money” business. It’s my opinion, the indicators of such a Force generation cannot be hidden from modern-day intelligence. Preparation actions are some of the primary areas watched 24/7/365 by the IC and I find it impossible to believe such a combined Russian/ Chinese event could take place with the US sitting on it’s hands. Yes…I  know… Pearl Harbor!

Allies who don’t fight:

            Not only does this report seem to count on US forces being caught totally off-guard, it also seems to make the assumption key NATO nations will decide not to get involved. Wow…..there’s an inserted scenario advantage for ya. If you need your report to come to the conclusion you are looking for, then you need to have key segments that support your hypothesis. When I read someone commenting about this segment of the report, I thought to myself, “ yep, RAND and the Self-Licking Ice-cream Cone”. Germany and France just take a knee and agree to whatever Moscow tells them. Okay, it might happen, but my bet is RAND may need to think that way to get the report to the conclusion they are paid to find, but I would also bet you that assumption is not made in Moscow. Likewise, Japan and the rest of the Pacific decides to watch the Dragon swallow Taiwan and simply look the other way. Well…you know…. You need key assumptions to get to where you want to go. The US and its Allies are caught totally off-guard and key Allies decide not to fight. Now let’s see… the goal here is to paint a picture of the US losing a conflict. Well, those are two great assumptions that could lead one to that conclusion. I really do need to read this report. Let’s take one last issue and see if we can toss cold water on this hot topic.

The Cost:

            The US and it’s Allies are caught totally off guard and are unable to defend key sites because of a lack of air defense assets, hint…that is what this report is all about. To make matters worse, Allies won’t fight. Got it. That sounds really grim and if I was a clueless member of congress I might be briefed by a few retired Generals and so called, “Experts” from the academic world and begin to panic. But you see, I’m not a clueless member of Congress and I’m not looking for that multi BILLION dollar plant to be built or expanded in my district and…..I’m not a President who is already more than willing to spend more money on the military for the sake of saying I’m doing so. Let me add a factor here that may have not made it into the report, but I will read it and find out.

            You are sitting at home. It’s 7pm EST and as you watch your favorite cable news network babble on about current political events in the US, a “ Special Report” comes in stating it appears a large scale attack is taking place against US forces in both the Pacific and Europe. Within a few hours, all the reports seem to be true and the internet also seems to be completely compromised as part of this attack. Where in the world do you think the world economy is the next morning? After a few dozen Talking Heads run to the major networks to give their opinion on what is taking place and what might be yet to come, who is going to work? Who is letting their kids go to school? Does Wall Street open? No. Do other world markets open? No. Are the stores in the US overrun with panic driven zombies? Yep. Are the major networks in full scale emotional meltdown? Yes. Is it Trump’s fault? Yep. So, that’s it? That’s the status of the world the Russians and the Chinese are looking for and all for the sake of regaining Taiwan and the Ukraine? Both China and the Russian devise a plan, work out details too complex to even mention here and all of this happens without the Intelligence Community knowing and all with the outcome of a collapsed world economy? Just how much funding did RAND receive to develop this plan? Does the US need a greater air defense network? Yes. Has the US been so focused on the “little wars / Terrorism/ that it’s spent nearly the last 20 years building a force that is not a true battlefield network? Yes. Does that mean the Chinese and the Russians are going to risk everything they have to take back two small slices of land? If the folks at RAND need to help convince US political so called leaders the nation needs to refocus, then I guess this report fits the last three or four that have come out.  I will go read this Self-licking Ice Cream Cone from RAND, if I can, but someone needs to prove to me the Russians and the Chinese are willing to risk everything over two previous territories. Let the Russians and the Chinese believe their national survival is at stake and some of this may come true, but someone better have some really hard “facts” to convince me, a guy who watched this level of interaction on a daily bases, the Chinese and the Russian could ever work hand in hand, right down to the war plan level. Who does Moscow fear more? The US or the Dragon? Who does the Dragon fear? A group of people on a small Island that may show 1.5 billion people a better way of life? Now………..that is a real problem, but not a problem the Russians are willing to help the Dragon solve.