THE MIDDLE EASTERN SCORECARD

Well, life got in the way of me getting back on track with keeping up with my favorite blog. Some of you that know me, know what that event is and has been, but that is not important, at least not at this moment. As I tried to dig my way out of the fog of stark new reality for me, one item did dawn on me that I could focus my thoughts towards again. The region of the world I’ve found fascinating for over twenty five years now. The Middle East.

I’ve written about this region since the day the Arab Spring began. Yes, I know, a title that most have already forgotten. It also dawned on me that post you words on the internet has the ability to make you somewhat immortal when you come to the realization you are not! But it’s also helped me realize something that is even more important to me, my family! What better way for my Son’s and my wife to realize my thoughts about this complicated world, even more than they already do?  Now, my Sons have heard me address my thoughts about the world they are going to live in and just how important it is to understand what is taking place and why. They both have heard me say time and time again, “know why something is happening and know how it may impact you and those around you and you will have an advantage over most of the people you come in contact with. Yes, I used the word “advantage”. Not an evil word. Not a negative word, with the exception of one political party I can think of that happens to be in the US, but that is another topic.

Legacy. That is the renewed drive with this blog. It’s over five years old and has over a thousand post with each one of them being my thoughts and theory’s on what is taking place in the world and why. Now, most of those post have been centered on the Middle East and for selfish reasons on my part. You see, that is the slice of the world I spent most of my thirty two years serving Uncle Sam concentrating on. Yes, I had some planning and operations time in the Far East and Europe not to mention the counter drug mission in Central and South America. But, in the end, my passion and my dedication was to the region of the world I was convinced years ago would lead to real changes in this world.  Oh ya, there is this book that talks about this part of the world as well and how it will impact the future of human race. I think most of you have heard of it!

Alright, in the end, this is about my Boys and what I can leave them. Words and logic are powerful tools in any language and every culture. Being informed will be more important in the 21^st century than at any point in human history. Arming my Son’s with knowledge and not just guns that is my goal!

Now, let’s get down to it. Let’s talk about the Middle East and what has taken place since I was sidetrack a few months ago. 

First off, did I call it when it comes to the madman in Turkey or what? Go back and read the post where I talked about his attendance at the Officer promotion ceremony, an event that is coveted to the Turkey Military. When I stated EgoDan, yep, my name for him, could be looking over his shoulder for yet another Turkish military coup, I had a hunch one was “cooking”!  I will come back to the repercussions of this event combined with the “lost at sea” foreign policy of the US at a later date; maybe even tomorrow!

After the events in Turkey, we cannot overlook or underestimate the chess game the Tsar continues to play throughout the region. You know, to the Saudi’s and others in the region, hearing your staff say to you, “Sir…… the Russian President is on the phone and would like to talk to you”, must be like being in the witness protection program and suddenly getting a phone call from a friend in your old neighborhood!  Putin has woven such a complex web in the region now, even most “experts” on his actions are confused. The problem is, the confusion is topped off by pure paranoia!  Again, an update on where he is trying to take the region is a topic for a later date, but not too much later given the level of importance his actions have with everything else that is taking place in the region.

Ok, next update topic and it’s a good one. Iran. 

Did the US pay an exorbitant amount of money to get a few people home? Well, to hear the administration talk, no, but then again………….. what did anyone expect? 

Is Iran pushing its influence further in the region? Well, it’s much better funded to do so now; thanks to the US.

Is that how the GCC members see it? Absolutely!

Does that bother the US administration? No!

Does all of this further destabilize the region? Yes! 

Does the US realize this as well? No!

Why? Well, I would say a clueless Department of State, but this is yet another topic for another day.

Ok, last but not least.

Are the Persians worried about the Tsar and his own goals for the region? If you said yes….Bingo…..good job!

Now, on to the GCC.

How confusing must it be for the GCC leaders?

When the region started its slide into madness, five years ago, the GCC tried their best to “control” the atmosphere that was engulfing them. It worked for a while, at least they thought it did.

Five years later and how much of what is taking place in the region is influenced by the GCC members?  I can tell you this, it’s far less than they are comfortable with. The conflict in Yemen drags on and on and the events in Syria are not way….way….out of their control. It’s a global superpower game and they are no longer invited to the game.

In the end, it’s hard to gauge where the GCC stands with events in the region and that bothers them the most. They have lost the ability to control or influence actions around them and that leaves them in a sit and wait mode. A mode the GCC leadership is not comfortable with.

By the way, someone has a plan. The Saudi 2030 plan and when you read it, it almost seems like a change is on the horizon!  Well…..almost……..let’s hope! It’s a great concept, in theory!

Egypt?

Where in the world did this topic go?

The center of gravity for the first two years of this six year run of madness in the region.

So, why has it fallen off the “radar”?

Well, for one thing, if you don’t have blood pouring down the streets of your country right now, then it’s hard to get the world to pay attention to you. 

Egypt is a quiet partner with many interesting and even interesting “friends” right now, as the counter plot for the Turks continues to ferment.  No love there and you don’t even have to ask to find out.

It’s been a long post tonight, but let me end this one by addressing the most dangerous game taking place on this updated scorecard.

Israel!

Throughout history the mistakes of overconfidence have littered the battlefields.

Iran has a lot going it’s way right now. Russian support, or so they think!

A military campaign in Syria that is regaining ground for the first time in nearly five years.

A proxy puppet named Hezbollah that seems to have regained an upper hand in Lebanon.

And now, it seems the Persians are letting their generals tour the border of Israel right in open view of the IDF.

Stack that on top of moving fighting units from Hezbollah into the same border area and what do you have?

A recipe for disaster based on the overconfident Persian leadership.

I find it hard to believe the Iranians can equate their ability to manipulate the West / US / with having the opportunity to prance back and forth along the Israeli border.

Let me put this another way. If I was in one of those Hezbollah units being moved into that region and I was told to make myself seen, I would make sure my family has a plan for my belongings!

The scorecard for the region is more chaotic than it was three months ago, when I last posted my thoughts. Like most scorecards, you need to make sure you are using a pencil. The changes are fast and furious and speeding up as I write this!