Ok, the who's who of who is coming and who is not coming to
the maybe on maybe off Geneva 2 conference is not near as interesting as the
wondering over why this meeting is taking place and who is it really for?
Is the Arab League shaping the process?
Is the Tsar?
Is the West?
How about the Turks...
The GCC????
Yep, you guessed it... what in the world is going on here
and what is the purpose?
Oh and by the way... if the real battle for Qalamoun is underway by the time this Geneva cocktail party /
soap opera starts, you can bet the date will be pushed back yet again.
Here is the next question.
Is Geneva 2 about Syria or is it
about the Tsar and his desire to once again out maneuver the West?
Is it about the GCC making a point on what they are willing
to do in their proxy war with the Persians?
Is it a stepping stone to some nuclear agreement with Iran ?
Is it about the so called Syrian government in exile... you
know.. the ones sitting in Turkey and London drinking mix drinks and attending
meetings with people who would not have given them the time of day two years
ago?
Is anyone really going to show up and talk about ending the
fighting in Syria ?
Here is my bet and it's in two parts.
First off, the event is going to be overtaken by the Qalamoun
issue unless Assad's Master in Tehran gets the phone
call from the Tsar to hold off until after the Dog and Pony show in Geneva .
Secondly; you should assume the GCC / Saudi will also have a vote on Geneva 2 taking place.
If the Russians blew them off last month stacked on top of the
US change of heart, then my bet
is the Saudis are not in any frame of mind that leads to the West or the Tsar looking
like a leader in Geneva .
Lets face facts... .nobody expect anything out of Geneva 2...3 ..4...5...ect....ect....
The true fighters in Syria are not coming to the party and
the money behind them is in no mood to bend to the pressure of the West or the Tsar.
Qalamoun is the issue and the end state is Hezbollah pulled back
into a Lebanon
cast into the fires of Civil War.
I will end tonight with yet another classic example of an applicable
adage.
" Money talks and Bullsh-- walks".. Hence.. the GCC
and those showing up to nap at Geneva
2.
