SYRIA / IRAN / ISRAEL / RUSSIA. WHAT TOOK PLACE?

It’s obvious that something took place a few days ago that caught many key players by surprise. What happened has been written and talked about in great detail. The most important question is still out there. Why? Why did it take place? What changed? Israel has been flying strike missions into Syria for the past several years, even after the Russian air defense units showed up. Have Israeli jets been locked in on in the past? Yes. Have they been fired at? Yes, but without proper “support”. So, an Iranian drone, one modeled after the one they captured from the US, flies into Israeli airspace and gets shot down. New news? No. It’s happened before. As the story goes, after this airspace violation, the IDF decides to strike the command center where the drone was controlled from. Unusual? Have they struck the command center for the previous drones? Where the other drones Iranian controlled or more simpler versions flown from Gaza; that’s a key element here. Did the Israelis understand the Iranian controlled drone, one they identified as far more advanced than previous models, was being missioned from a site on the base named T4, a base heavily populated with Russian operations and thus, defended by Russian ADA units. Was this something new? Had the Israelis flown through Russian controlled air defense sites in the past? Yes!  Had Netanyahu warned the Russians Israel would not tolerate Iranian / Hezbollah / increased pressure on Israel’s border with Syria? Yes. Did the Russians believe him? Yes. So, back to the initial question. Why did this event take place?

Who is sending what message?

               In an attempt to find a possible explanation to what took place, let me go back to a topic I’ve harped on for several years now. Are the Persians thankful for the Russian’s actions in Syria? No! Do the Persians trust the Russians? No. Is the love affair between the Russians and the Persians real? Well, let’s just refer to it as a marriage of convenience. Now, all last month, the rumors once again began to fly about on how the Russians were coming to an agreement with the US and “others” on the future of Syria. Those that didn’t belong there would have to leave, and the transition of power would take place afterword. Same old story with the same old dead end results, with the exception this time of the Ottomans. The Russian master plan for Syria would have resulted in the Kurds further grinding out what would become Kurdistan. Kurdistan and the Kurds. The number one reason the Turks reacted to the Civil War in Syria in the fist place. Somehow, this time around, when the Sultan caught on to the end game the Russians were attempting to develop for Syria, the threat of Kurdistan became unacceptable. That was a very good indication the Turks were not truly part of the problem solving formula designed in Moscow. The consequences of this revitalized rumor was “Operation Olive Branch”. By the way, I love the concept of a combat operation having the title of “Olive Branch”! That must have been a joke to someone. So that was it? The Russians starting pushing a plan for finding an end-state in Syria and that plan was one that had not been acceptable to a major player in the region? Was that the only “No” vote? Nope, of course not. 

               Iran’s message reaction to the Russian planning, like the Turks, has not changed. The future of Iran is tied to the future of Syria and Iraq. The concept of a Kurdistan may not be as volatile to the Persians, but it is a common thread between them and the Ottomans and Syria and Iraq. The Turks may have answered by launching Operation Olive Branch, but the Iranians has continued their response as well. What could possibly impact the Russian vision for the region and even the Russians themselves, more then to push a confrontation between Israel? Just how upset would the Russians become if Iran shaped a scenario where Israel would strike targets in Syria defended or even controlled by Russia. What would happen if Iran instigated the IDF into responding in a way that forced the Russians to respond? In reality, it’s been going on for over two years now. Iran’s movement of critical weapons to Hezbollah, a Hezbollah that is doing everything it can to prepare for the next war in Israel, has placed Russia in a position it does not like. Continues air attacks inside Syria, a Syria that the Russians have clamed they control the skies of. How many times have people said, “ How can the IDF strike in Syria the way they do and the Russians don’t respond”? Who has truly set this stage? Yes. In my opinion, it’s the Iranians and the Russians along with Israel know it. Why else would Netanyahu travel to Moscow last month? Iran is forcing the issue of Russia’s influence over the future of Syria.

               Was Operation Olive Branch the perfect excuse for the IDF to step up their game inside Syria? Yes. Did the Iranians understand that is exactly what they needed? Yes. Do the Russians know they are being played by the Iranians? Yes. Is there going to be a conflict between Russia and Israel? No! How will the Russians deal with the actions of the Persians? Let me just make this comment. You don’t want to be on the receiving end of Mr. Putin’s anger! If Iran wishes to upset the Russians by forcing a conflict with Israel, they need to be very…..very….careful. If Iranian units find the Russians distancing themselves from them on the ground in Syria, they better be able to take the hint on what will happen next.