PENDING ACTION ON SYRIA... CONFIDENCE BY THE PUPPET MASTERS.

If you would have asked me as late as yesterday about Iran's possible reaction to pending, may not pending now, Western actions in Syria, I would have told you not to worry.

Well, today, I am not near as confident I could stick with that answer.

I'm still willing to stick by my assessment of Iran not wishing to risk conflict over Syria and at the same time not willing to expend Hezbollah capital beyond a certain point.

As I started to read more and more comments coming from some who really understand the region, I began to realize I may have to reevaluate what Iran is willing to risk.

It's still true the Persians intend to keep the majority of Hezbollah's capabilities for any future conflict with Israel.

It's also true Hezbollah comprehends what is now at stake for them in Lebanon.

So, lets go back to a basic premises I spoke of well over two years ago.

Would Iran be willing to push the region to war over Syria?

I was in the camp of those who believed the Persians could not accomplish their master plans with the pending loss of both Syria and Hamas and so when the final status of Syria became an issue, they would do whatever they had to.

Then as time went on, I convinced myself Assad's Masters might just live with a Syria in crisis... a crisis that would still allow Hezbollah to operate near the Lebanese's border.

Here is the problem and it's a huge problem.

The evidence of what Iran is willing to do and not do is growing more scrambled with each passing day.

So, yesterday when key figures in the Iranian government began to speak of the perils of Western actions on Syria, the " what are they willing to do" question rose to the top of the stack once again!

As the rest of the world began to question Iranian resolve, the UK government added a totally new variable.

A "NO" vote on conflict!

Now, does that mean the pending Western attack is not going to take place?

The answer must be given by two different groups.

A: Those who are in the region both for and against Assad.

B:  Those in the West who are truly on the fence for supporting the plan.

How does Iran and Assad perceive this decision?

How does Iran not interpret this pull back as a sign the West really doesn't want to walk into yet another open-ended conflict?

Why would the West believe that danger is there?

How timely were Iran's statements?

If the region was not confusing enough,  the events of the past 24 hrs have made them nearly impossible to comprehend.

It's more than obvious the region is growing more complex by the hour and even more importantly far more dangerous.

So, as of the 29th of Aug, what is the overall picture / forecast?

To me, it shapes up like this.

For reasons nobody can really put their definitive finger on, the  Assad Camp decided to increase the tensions in the entire region and do so in  a dramatic fashion.

Just as the West seemed poised to act on events they now claim are "unacceptable", the Alliance of the West seems to have faltered!

Now, the question becomes, does this possible delay on the Western action provide a valuable slice of time to come back to the table, or has Assad and his Masters suddenly gotten exactly what they wanted....... a crack in the Western resolve?

Did the chemical event do exactly what it was designed to do?

Did it expose the West's aversion to conflict?

Someone needs to ask the Tsar, for you see, that's who I believe is pulling the strings at this moment in time.

Confidence... If that is what Assad's Masters are feeling tonight... I would warn them to pay close attention to the little country stuck between  Lebanon and Syria.... for you see... they are more than capable of destroying that ill-conceived confidence!

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/97797d0a-1095-11e3-b291-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2dOnXgOEo

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=116413

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/nownews/hezbollah-mobilizing-troops-in-southern-lebanon

"COMPELLING" WHO SETS THE DEFINITION?

The number of self-proclaimed experts on the topic of actions in Syria is growing at a predictable rate.

What will happen?

How will it happen?

What impact will it have?

What might be the consequences?

Everyone one of these questions has just been beat to death in the past four days.

Let me review a general sample of what the answers have been and you can decide what makes sense and what is nothing more than someone trying to pay their bills by talking on TV.

"It wouldn't stop Assad's ability to continue to utilize WMDs"?

True.

If someone tells your for over a week they are coming to destroy you house, do you not have time to move the items you are most concerned with?

Yep!

Having said this, there is a "upside" to this tactic.

If you don't know where something is located, but you think you can trick your opponent into taking an action to protect the given target, then you might be able to actually target the issue! 

 This is an old trick that has worked time and time again in the past.

" This is not going to result in 'Regime Change'"!

Now, I have to admit, I just love this comment and given how many "experts" have said it in the past few days, well that makes it even more delightful to address.

So, what magic, crystal ball do these "experts" have that makes them stand on this theory, other than their party politics?

How does anyone outside of Assad's inner circle and his Masters know truly gage his level of control?

Let me put it to you this way, when action is taken and the intent of the action is not to create another possibly more adverse action, that doesn't mean it will work!

Remember the golden rule of conflict; the law of unintended consequences.

It's understandable some of the Western powers tried to make it very clear the pending action was not based on Regime Change, but as I said three days ago, that all depends on the perceptions of the other side.

If Tehran and Assad believe Regime Change is the desired result, then what the Western enemies declare prior to the event is irrelevant.

" A simple  limited actions media event will not have any real impact on Syria"!

Back to my comment above; how much risk do you assume when you assume "nothing will happen"?

Remember, whatever action is taken, the other side gets a vote!

All in all, these three core comments seem to be shaping the day to day media, at least until they have an actual event they can cover.

What the past five days have been successful in accomplishing is apx a 250 point drop on the US economic markets... ah yes.. the law of unintended consequences begins even before the first bomb is dropped.

Tomorrow, I will go into my version of what this event might look like at the tactical level and what actions it may lead to.

Let me leave this conversation with one basic principle I shared with a coworker yesterday.

When one side of a conflict makes the statement of "compelling" everyone who might be impacted on both sides and even the neutral parties needs to realize the word, "compelling" is defined by all camps.

If a "limited strike" is needed based upon "Compelling events" then the reaction by the opponent will most likely be "Compelling"!

Oh ya, one last tenant of Warfare to leave you with.

"Hit the Enemy where they are not"!

STRIKES ON SYRIA "LOOM"??? WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

It appears just about everyone is convinced that some level of action is going to take place sometime in the near future.

It is also very evident no one really comprehends what reactions may come from a "strategic / limited / show of force, you call it what you want.

As I stated yesterday, it's going to be a hard sell to convince Tehran and Damascus any action is not based on the classic, Regime Change concept.

What did finally pop up today was the valid question of, "what if the results of the actions lead  the fall of Assad"?

The level of planning I can assure you is intense, but the level of anticipated reaction... well that is almost always the unknown delta of the process.

As we witness the apparent preparation for some level of conflict in Syria and honestly possibly in the region, we cannot forget the gold rule... the Law of Unintended Consequences.

Most military planners worth their weight in salt will always develop COAs, Course of Action, that address  the targeted enemy not adhering  to the unwritten rule of proportionality.

Now that the Secretary of  State for the US has spoken, we need to watch the next 24 hrs to see just what level of verbal response Assad and his Master's respond with.

That will set the stage for just how serious this pending event could become.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Aug-27/228814-us-strike-on-syria-looms.ashx#axzz2d7O9bvJl

THE "REDLINES" EACH SIDE HAS THEM.

As predicted, the rumors of pending "outside" actions over the Syrian conflict grew dramatically in the past two days.

Given the fact we all have far too much to digest over this issue, lets stick to a few simple facts in the hopes these will act as guidelines for possible actions.

FACT:

Assad's control in Syria is one disastrous event away from failure.

International actions, even limited actions, could and probably will push Assad to the state of collapse.

Any plans of assaulting Aleppo and securing a victory over the rebels would be all but lost.

Simply put, Assaad's grip cannot withstand even a "limited" response and that limited response would most likely tip the scales!

FACT:

Assad's handlers have shown they will go to great lengths to keep him in power.

Remember, there is no way he came up with the Chemical attack scenario of a few days ago without permission and support.

The Persians and the Tsar would never interpret a "limited" strike response as anything other than the initial stages of "Regime Change"... something the West has a history of in that region.

Simply put; no one on the opposing team is going to see "limited" as "limited"!

FACT:

Assad has been in a position of non-control for well over a year now.

His Masters run the show in Syria and all of those around him know it.

If the chemical attack was not his idea, and he is not given a vote on how to deal with the fallout, then how paranoid must he be right now?

What is he capable of with or without his Master's consent?

Just asked Jordan, Turkey, Israel.......

Simply put; Assad as the real leader of Syria has reached the point that not only can he not retain control of his country, but those who plotted to use chemical weapons against the people of Syria could easily let him hang for the event and settle with Syria's version of Lebanon in the 80s.

FACT:

The "Revenge Factor" is going to come into play and soon!

Just listen to the words of Abu Mohammad al-Golani!

As I said two days ago, the Sunni response will come and it may come outside of Syria.

Simply put; If I was a family member of  Hezbollah back in Lebanon, I would leave and I would leave to somewhere very remote.

Simply put; Lebanon is now totally engulfed in the Syrian conflict and any "limited" response by the enemies of Assad will most likely involve Lebanon and perhaps others near by paying the price.

THE FINAL FACT:

The ideological mentality of believing there is some version of  " A limited Response" is flawed beyond imagination.

Western actions, at any level, will take the entire region to the reality of the long feared disaster.

Simply put; phones and face to face meetings must be a blistering pace right now and the concept of "saving face" cannot be allowed to rule the day.

The problem will be, as the rational attempt to avoid what they all know might happen with intervention, the radicals will take their revenge and that revenge will be responded to by the desperate to survive!

Containment...... that has to be priority  one right now..... or at least I hope it is!!

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Syrias-Nusra-threatens-to-target-Alawites-over-alleged-chemical-attack-324190

ASSAD'S BATTLE OF THE BULGE! HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF!

If you search my site, you will see how many times I've addressed the questions of Syria's Chemical / WMD / programs.

As I reviewed my comments on Assad's past chemical events, I find myself coming back to the same baseline questions once again.

Why?

Why now?

Did he take actions unilaterally or did he have permission from his handlers ... Iran / Russia?

Let me see if I can explain why this time might be different than that past, other than the magnitude of victims.

This time around, only two of the three past questions have any true relevance.

Why and why now; are rolled into one answer.

Assad and more importantly his Masters have begun to realize they are going to lose!

Iran's and Syria's version of the Battle of the Bulge is in the early stages of failure and they all know what the telling blow is going to be.... The Battle for Aleppo!

For nearly two years the constant fear and drum beat from the rest of the word has been the issue of Assad utilizing WMD weapons as he runs out of options.

Let me make this as clear as I can.

Assad / Hezbollah and even the Persian Mystic Warriors are not going to see victory in Aleppo.

More than just the rebels are prepared to make a stand in Aleppo.

The GCC nations will do whatever it takes keep the Rebels from failing in Aleppo.

Since the beginning of Assad's Battle of the Bulge, the primary mission of securing Damacus, the most basic objective of the mission, has not been achievable.

Assad and all of his forces / both internal and external have not managed to secure the part of the country he and his followers planned to fall back to.. not even with Russian support!

As I stated when Assad's Battle of Bulge began, the moment in time of the counterstrike would come and that would be the exact moment in time when Assad and all of his followers would lose hope!

Well, the prediction, as dire as it was, seems to have become a reality that is even worse than Assad could have imagined.

A true counterstrike is not even underway, and it will still come, and Assad's henchmen simply can't secure a single section of Syria.

You see, the oldest of many military truisms has come true.

It is one thing to take land from your enemy...it's a far more difficult goal to keep it and keep it's people from walking the streets without killing you.

Just look at the last ten years for the West and it's desires in Afghanistan!

Ok, back on target here.

So, has Assad and his Masters come to the conclusion that placing chemical weapons on the battlefield is the only option to perhaps turn the tide.. Win the Battle of the Bulge?

Look at this question form two perspectives.

Will a thousand dead Children and Women tear the hearts out of Islamic Fundamentalist, fanatical fighters?

I think we all know the answer to that question.

Will the use of chemical weapons on a larger scale than past attacks force the rest of the world to force the rebels to the negotiation table?

Again, we know the answer.

So, what made him take this action?

My answer comes inside the explanation of the second categorical question.

Did he take "unilateral action"?

Here is the short answer.

NO!

So, did he have "permission"?

No..

He didn't need "permission", for you see, it was not decision.

Anyone who believes that Assad at this stage of the game, a game of regional power plays between old Super Powers and an aspiring, new one... singular... as in China,  is simply out of touch with reality.

Now, that is going to lead you to an even more interesting and  dangerous question.

Who's idea was it and why?

Would the Persians launch such a plan without the Tsar's inputs?

 That's a Good question with no rock solid answer.

Did the Persians come to the "Use or Lose" conclusion and simply inform Assad what was going to take place?

If the answer is yes, then did the Persians notify the Tsar?

Let's look at the Russian response to see if there is a hint of an answer.

To paraphrase Russia's response, ' We support UN response to the impacted area'!

Oh ya, toss into the answer from the Tsar's team the age old, worn out comment of, "The Rebels may have been responsible".

At this point in time, not even the Russian can believe that any part of the free world would believe such a concept, but then the Russian's may not really care what the rest of the world believes.

Here is what the Tsar and his Persian precarious partners may believe.

"Let's show the rest of the world just how far we are willing to go to keep Syria!

"Let's see just how far the "Free  World" is willing to go?

" Oh, by the way!..... What does the GCC really think they can do about it"?

Are these three statements even close to what the Tsar's team and the Persians are capable of contemplating?

My bet is, it's really....really close!!!!

So, what does it all mean?

If we accept the fact that Syria and it's Allies just upped the stake by a factor feared for well over two years, what is going to happen?

What does the rest of the world do?

Let's start with what the GCC can do and has done, for as much as the Tsar would like to believe the GCC will simply accept a new "Boss" in the region, he may have completely underestimated the GCC.

For months now, I have commented on what price Hezbollah would end up paying for answering the call of their Persian Masters.

The mass graves filled with Hezbollah dead...dead that are still unknown to the families back in Lebanon.

Bombs in Hezbollah's base of support back in Lebanon with a growing cry of, "come home and take care of your own".

And now today..... a bombing event that is sure to drive the violence over the edge in Lebanon.

You see, as I have said before, the plan from day one was to make Hezbollah pay a price they simply will not be able to pay as time goes on.

Pulling Hezbollah from the Battlefields of Syria, that was the GCC plan from day one!

As of today, I would be wiling to bet, its working!

If Lebanon explodes, Hezbollah must go home or there will be no "home" to go home to!

Nobody understands this more than the Persians.

A Hezbollah in full retreat.... that is the signal for my predicted, "counter attack".

Yep... Aleppo is the Bastogne of Assad's Battle of the Bulge and the breakout for the Rebels will be the withdraw of Hezbollah.

The Persians and the Tsar see the breakout coming!

Remember the Tsar needs the Northern Caucasus Islamic fighters as committed to the sectarian war in Syria as possible; at least until the Olympics are over!

So, round one of retaliation for the chemical attack will come in the form of starting a fire in Lebanon... a fire they may have started today.

So, the underestimated GCC gains the advantage, at least from their perspective.

Ok, that's the explanation of what the Arabs will do.

What about the rest of the world?

Who is willing to finally enter the battlefield of Syria?

Is the answer, nobody?

Perhaps!

Is it possible to do something with the intent of not really getting involved?

That is most likely what several countries are desperately looking to achieve.

"Lets do something... but let's not get in over our heads"!

Can you say, Libya.... round two?

Would that work?

Nope!

Even the slightest Western action in Syria has all the propensity in the world to light the region just as many have predicted for over two years.

But, if no real action is taken, won't process simply repeat itself?

Perhaps not!

Remember, the chemical action was not based on breaking the will of the Rebels.

This round of chemical attacks didn't secure a single foot of Damascus and revenge on some massive scale is going to be the Rebel response; that you can assure yourself of.

By now, it's easy to see just how impossible the whole region is becoming and again, that is a scenario many had predicted.

To end this conversation, let's go back to a yet another basic tenant of Warfare.

Warfare in its purest form is the final decision  of governance that has completely run out of options!

The most dangerous question has finally been place upon the world's table!

Have the Persians and the Tsar simply pushed the Western world too far?

Is armed conflict inside of Syria finally the only option that saves the whole region from warfare?

Remember... I have always said, Lebanon was the key to a true regional war.

If that card is now in play by both the GCC and the enemies of the GCC, then the rest of the world is now at a time of decision.

 In the end, limited, tactical precession strikes that gives key players time to pull back from the battlefield before it gets out of control.... that is most likely the final option

ERDOGAN...AKA... EGODAN.... FUEL ON THE FLAMES?????

Ok, it's no big surprise The Ottoman / Islamic would be King would continue to make inflammatory statements about the events in Egypt, but this one today.... well...it's over the top...even for him!

As I have said since before the July 3rd event in Egypt, Egodan has been worried sick about the perceived failure of the infantile Islamic/ socialist governments like his; especially his!

Unlike Egodan, Morsi didn't act against his military leaders soon enough and it has cost the Muslim Brotherhood more than they still can comprehend.

Egodan witnessed this in a complete state of shock and wasted little time tossing out fiery speeches about the sacking of the MB in Egypt.

So, today for some reason, he decides to turn up the heat....way ....way up!!!

Israel was responsible for the fall of Morsi?????

Really?

If Egodan is playing to his hometown audience, the Turkish people, then this statement seems just a tiny bit more logical.

The problem is, even in own country, this accusation seems more than a stretch.

So, we have to ask ourselves; who would this statement benefit?

Why would he say such a thing?

For a hint, I think we need to go back to his primary concern....his government!

I'm not the first person to make the comment Egodan sees the hand writing on the wall!

If he could take back bludgeoning of his own people over what he claimed was an park in the middle of a city, I still don't think he would.

Egodan is a egomaniac and egomaniacs have paranoid characteristic that grows and the same rate as their ego!

Is this what he is up to?

Is he laying the ground work, again, remember his speech about "outsiders" interfering as he beat his people over a park, for possible unrest in Turkey?

Once again, is Egodan preparing for the Arab Spring appearance in Turkey?

 Is it truly about to happen?

Most likely not yet, but when you are as paranoid as he is, everything you think of can become reality in your own mind.

The Tsar is working "deals" with the Kurds and Egodan knows that is not going to go his way.

Assad is still standing tall in Syria, and that's not what Egodan had envisioned by now.

Moris and the MB gets tossed and the Islamic government in Tunisia is faltering more and more every day!

As inflammatory as this statement has been, there is one saving grace.

Just about everyone outside of Turkey knows Egodan rants like a madman!

Could his comments spark young, desperate, angry young men to take action somewhere?

Perhaps!

Will it save the MB or the battered Hamas movement?

No.

So, what has he really accomplished?

For his Islamist / Socialist friends in Egypt and Gaza,.... nothing.

What will worry me is if he keeps this conspiracy storyline moving forward.

Is Egodan growing more desperate?

Yes.

Is he a rational man?

No.

When irrational men get paranoid beyond the point of self-control, history has  volumes of examples of bad things happening.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=115493

DOES THE RESISTANCE FALL BACK INTO THE SINAI?

Two weeks ago, I stated that Sisi would make a more telling move on his enemies in the Sinai ether just prior to making a move on the Muslim Brotherhood or at the same time.

Actions in the Sinai had been taking place for months, but on a very limited scale.

Also, as I commented earlier, the Muslim Brotherhood and other more radical groups had been predicting Sisi's move on the Morsi government for months.

It's not news, or should I say, it shouldn't be news, Sisi's enemies began planning disruption operations with the Sinai as it's base months ago; perhaps even longer.

As the streets of Egypt's major cities began to perhaps calm down, the question becomes, does the new resistance makes it's stand in the Sinai?

My bet is this is exactly what Sisi and his generals anticipated and one only need look at the force placed in that region to come to this conclusion.

Ok, so the question becomes?

How in the world did 24 Policemen get caught so unprepared?

A convoy that must have been virtually unprotected?

How could that happen in an area that everyone predicted would be the center  of violence?

It's right about here the conspiracy theorist usually pop onto the scene.

Where these Cops set up?

Did someone need them slaughtered to keep the public on the side of the Sisi government?

As outrageous as that might sound in the West, it's never...ever out of the question in the Middle East!

Who should have escorted this convoy of Policemen going on leave?

Who really controls the area?

The Egyptian Military you might say...... you would be correct!!!!!

I'm I siding with the conspiracy crowd?

Not yet, but I must admit, it's a strange set up for an area soaked in danger.

I have one last comment on this topic before I move on.

How upset would Sisi have been if the 24 dead were Egyptian Military?

THE SINAI:

Ok, this is a topic that could easily occupy volumes of discussions on Egyptian operations.

Just how important is the Sinai?

All you have to do is ask the IDF.

How difficult can it become for Egypt to truly secure the Sinai?

Short answer... they can't!!!

So, will they need help?

You guessed it...........they already do!

Who's help you ask?

Some continue to speculate on the IDF and why not?

Tagging Sisi to the IDF will be a major goal of the MB and other radical groups in the area.

Holding the streets of Egypt's major cities, some are going to be harder than others, is a current mission that requires a great deal of energy and is ripe for failure.

The problem is, the Sinai is the Mother Ship of the future "resistance".

Sisi knows this and he also knows he must walk a razor then line of being seen working near or God forbid with the IDF.

His enemies new and old know this as well.

Paint a picture of Sisi and Israel working together and that perception could become Sisi's undoing.

So, operations in the Sinai are going to be more than delicate; so much so that a reluctance to strike too well may rule the mission.

Yes, the Sinai is key to Egypt's future and it's critical to Sisi!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23751954