Thursday, August 29, 2013

PENDING ACTION ON SYRIA... CONFIDENCE BY THE PUPPET MASTERS.



If you would have asked me as late as yesterday about Iran's possible reaction to pending, may not pending now, Western actions in Syria, I would have told you not to worry.

Well, today, I am not near as confident I could stick with that answer.

I'm still willing to stick by my assessment of Iran not wishing to risk conflict over Syria and at the same time not willing to expend Hezbollah capital beyond a certain point.

As I started to read more and more comments coming from some who really understand the region, I began to realize I may have to reevaluate what Iran is willing to risk.

It's still true the Persians intend to keep the majority of Hezbollah's capabilities for any future conflict with Israel.

It's also true Hezbollah comprehends what is now at stake for them in Lebanon.

So, lets go back to a basic premises I spoke of well over two years ago.

Would Iran be willing to push the region to war over Syria?

I was in the camp of those who believed the Persians could not accomplish their master plans with the pending loss of both Syria and Hamas and so when the final status of Syria became an issue, they would do whatever they had to.

Then as time went on, I convinced myself Assad's Masters might just live with a Syria in crisis... a crisis that would still allow Hezbollah to operate near the Lebanese's border.


Here is the problem and it's a huge problem.

The evidence of what Iran is willing to do and not do is growing more scrambled with each passing day.

So, yesterday when key figures in the Iranian government began to speak of the perils of Western actions on Syria, the " what are they willing to do" question rose to the top of the stack once again!

As the rest of the world began to question Iranian resolve, the UK government added a totally new variable.

A "NO" vote on conflict!

Now, does that mean the pending Western attack is not going to take place?

The answer must be given by two different groups.

A: Those who are in the region both for and against Assad.

B:  Those in the West who are truly on the fence for supporting the plan.

How does Iran and Assad perceive this decision?

How does Iran not interpret this pull back as a sign the West really doesn't want to walk into yet another open-ended conflict?

Why would the West believe that danger is there?

How timely were Iran's statements?

If the region was not confusing enough,  the events of the past 24 hrs have made them nearly impossible to comprehend.

It's more than obvious the region is growing more complex by the hour and even more importantly far more dangerous.

So, as of the 29th of Aug, what is the overall picture / forecast?

To me, it shapes up like this.

For reasons nobody can really put their definitive finger on, the  Assad Camp decided to increase the tensions in the entire region and do so in  a dramatic fashion.

Just as the West seemed poised to act on events they now claim are "unacceptable", the Alliance of the West seems to have faltered!

Now, the question becomes, does this possible delay on the Western action provide a valuable slice of time to come back to the table, or has Assad and his Masters suddenly gotten exactly what they wanted....... a crack in the Western resolve?

Did the chemical event do exactly what it was designed to do?

Did it expose the West's aversion to conflict?

Someone needs to ask the Tsar, for you see, that's who I believe is pulling the strings at this moment in time.

Confidence... If that is what Assad's Masters are feeling tonight... I would warn them to pay close attention to the little country stuck between  Lebanon and Syria.... for you see... they are more than capable of destroying that ill-conceived confidence!










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