Monday, August 26, 2013

STRIKES ON SYRIA "LOOM"??? WHAT DOES IT MEAN?



It appears just about everyone is convinced that some level of action is going to take place sometime in the near future.

It is also very evident no one really comprehends what reactions may come from a "strategic / limited / show of force, you call it what you want.

As I stated yesterday, it's going to be a hard sell to convince Tehran and Damascus any action is not based on the classic, Regime Change concept.

What did finally pop up today was the valid question of, "what if the results of the actions lead  the fall of Assad"?

The level of planning I can assure you is intense, but the level of anticipated reaction... well that is almost always the unknown delta of the process.

As we witness the apparent preparation for some level of conflict in Syria and honestly possibly in the region, we cannot forget the gold rule... the Law of Unintended Consequences.

Most military planners worth their weight in salt will always develop COAs, Course of Action, that address  the targeted enemy not adhering  to the unwritten rule of proportionality.


Now that the Secretary of  State for the US has spoken, we need to watch the next 24 hrs to see just what level of verbal response Assad and his Master's respond with.

That will set the stage for just how serious this pending event could become.


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