SILVER BULLETS AND  IRANIAN WEAPON SYSTEMS.

   The word is out an offensive cyber operation was executed against IRGC missile control networks last Thursday during or just prior to the on again, off again US response to the downing of the drone. Is this big news? In a way, yes. Last week, I posted if this event was to take place, it would contain actions that would send a deeper message to all of the US’s enemies. It appears one of those events took place. Here is the problem. Did it take place by choice or did it take place by accident? You might ask, “How could it have been an accident”? Well, let me tell you my opinion and you decide.

The Speed of Cyber:

   Scenario. Part of the COA / Course of Action / chosen included a offensive cyber attack against Iranian Command and Control networks. Not a new concept by far, but this attack was based upon the ability to completely disrupt the IRGC’s ADA / Air Defense and other offensive Missile platforms. For those of you that know air warfare, you understand the importance of “suppression” prior to aircraft and other platforms entering enemy controlled airspace. Think of the old Wild Weasel missions. ( Look it up if you need to). Now, that part of the package would have been executed first just as it would have been if physical suppression air assets were being utilized, but this time, the element of surprise was also going to have a message. The US’s new “suppression” capabilities were now based on, at least to some level, cyber events to cripple defending and offensive weapons’ platforms. Yes, it was going to be a message and most likely a huge one, one not limited to the old men in Tehran. Now, as impressive as that all might sound, it is very likely a fatal mistake was made and one that was made at the highest level. You see, the process to launch this part of the package is based upon keyboard strokes. A process that takes minutes to execute instead of hours, days or even weeks to prep such as aircraft and ship movements. Think along the lines of pressing the button for a nuke launch. If, and I want to emphasize.....if, the President authorized the stile and then changed his mind, that phase of the plan may have already been underway. Is there the ability to pull back malicious code? I don’t know, but if the phase of the operation that needed to be executed first was underway and then the word to haunt was given, then those enemy networks would have been struck with nothing happening behind that phase. Aircraft were reported to have been in the air when the story goes they were called off. Not the first time Ive seen that, but were other operations already being executed? You can almost assure yourself they were.  That’s the issue folks. The speed of cyber warfare is something very new to not only the military leadership, but to political leadership as well. If the IC / Intelligence Community informed the Combatant Commander it appeared the Mullahs were prepared to retaliate at a disproportionate level  and that information was passed to the President, then it’s logical that operation may have been called off...and that is a story for another discussion....trust me, but cyber, like nukes, takes place with the push of a few buttons and I don’t know if there is an auto destruction button. those codes are most likely already embedded and simply awaiting an activation code. Okay. Is this bad news or does it matter? Well, in my opinion, it’s bad news and here is why.

Silver Bullets:

   Throughout the course of weapon’s development, some have been cast as “Silver Bullets”.   Weapons that are kept off the radar for two reasons. 1. To keep the enemy from developing counter measures and 2. Showing other enemies who are watching a conflict just how dangerous their adversaries might be. The real danger becomes, when a nation utilizes a Silver Bullet system and then doesn’t follow through with the rest of the plan or leaks the system is out there. Some argued the use of stealth fighters in Desert Storm was the wrong utilization and that they should have continued to be non disclosed for a greater threat to the nation. In the end, they were used if for no other reason than to send a message to the Russians and the Chinese. So, here in rest the issue. Did the US utilize a Silver Bullet against the IRGC and then fail to execute the rest of the plan? Did the US misfire a Silver Bullet? Only a few folks know that real answer, but you can bet the enemy now realizes what may happen to them and they will change. Those weapon’s platforms may have damaged command and control networks, but the follow on strikes that would have physically destroyed them didn’t take place.  Here is the key to my posting this discussion today. Political leaders must....MUST... have an understanding beyond paying attention to a briefing for a few minutes when it comes to 21st Century warfare. You can call back aircraft. You can selfdistruck ICMBS, but can you pull back a weapon that is as powerful as a nuke ? It’s a new day with cyber and political leaders better do their homework. If we just waisted a key Silver Bullet, then the public will probably never know. 

ATTACKING US ASSETS. “ A BIG MISTAKE”? WHAT DOES IT MEAN? 

​“ I have a feeling it was a mistake”? What? So, some air defense battery commander was authorized to fire on US assets in the area of operations? So, some localized commander made a “mistake”? Is that what The Donald meant when he put out his tweet? Did the US President invent himself an offramp? Is this just his way of saying, “ I don’t want a shooting event with Iran”? Let’s take a look at the issue of the “mistake” and see what other issue may be out there that make this no mistake. 

How it works: 

​Can a regional commander have release authority over his weapons? Yes. Are those release authorities based upon some very stringent guidelines? Yes. Could a local commander be given bad information by a poorly trained weapon systems team as to the location of a hostile aircraft? Maybe. Tracking systems are far more accurate today than just a few years ago and the reporting of inaccurate locations would be unusual even for a poorly trained unit. Would that unit know the signature difference between a drone and a manned aircraft? Yes. Would the commander of the IRGC have a fiery speech ready based upon the “mistake” of a local commander? Folks…..there is the sticking point and it’s not just that sticking point that has me worried about The Donald’s desire to avoid an increasingly aggressive Iranian government. 

Other key indicators: 

​I can’t remember if I addressed the issue of IRGC and Al-Qud forces moving out of typical operating locations in Syria and Iraq a few months ago, but I’m fairly sure I did. Have I mentioned the decaying relationship between Tehran and Moscow? Yes. Have I mentioned the decaying ability of Tehran to pay Hamas and other proxy fighting units?  Yes. Have I mentioned the stories of Iran’s leadership moving the IRGC and Al-Qud forces under the Iranian regular military and how bizarre that seemed? Yes. Has it seemed like the old men in Tehran have become more embolden in the past month…6 ships attacked…increased advanced weapons fired into Saudi by Iran’s proxy fighters in Yemen? What’s the mainstream media buzzwords….. more aggressive? Have Iranian militias begun to once again target compounds in Iraq that house US forces? Have Iranian forces fired upon US assets that were watching their actions as they approached ships they had attacked? And now……. has Tehran suddenly had a local commander make a “mistake”…. a mistake that was followed up by the IRGC’s commander’s emotional warning? 

Sometimes you just have to fight:

I get it. The Donald campaigned on not wanting to get involved in useless, never-ending wars but he is also the same person who said the US will be respected again. It seems what he is finding out is just how hard it is to have both goals. Was his approach to North Korea effective? At best, that answer is inconclusive, but it seems the Chinese just today placed the Dragon’s wings back over the Little Fat Boy for protection….so that has changed. The Iranian leadership has been effectively backed into a corner and is almost on it’s economic knees thanks to the approach The Donald has formulated. But….here is the problem and it’s a problem his staff seems to have forgotten, at least some of them. If you back someone into a corner and they believe they have no way out, they have two options, give in or fight. The old men in Tehran have chosen to fight and they may very well be willing to fight to the death. It doesn’t matter what the Iranian people want. Their voice has not been heard in over forty years. What matters to the tyrants in Tehran is staying in power and I truly believe they see no way out. 

​Can the critics of the US President make the argument this potential crisis is the result of the administration’s policies towards Iran? Let me answer that with a little slice of reality. If the nuclear “deal” that Obama signed in the middle of the night would have continued, the risk of a full scale war between Israel and Iran was a reality and a reality the US could not stop. The Mullahs have a vision for coverage of their power and that coverage is far larger than Iran. That vision openly calls for the destruction of Israel. Wishing this reality away like the Teletubbies of the EU want so desperately is simply allowing the issue to become critical. If Tehran is attempting to push the US into a fight, a fight they anticipate the rest of the world will demand the US stop and sit down at the negotiation table, then the events of today are not going to be the last. More “mistakes” are going to be made and I’m not sure how many times The Donald can blame an overzealous local commander. ​

​I think this fight is coming and I’ve written about what type of fight this could be. A fight that is much different than the mistakes of Iraq and Afghanistan. It was a post I did both on this blog site and on my podcast site just a few days ago. Thank goodness I did those, because I really don’t feel like going over that again. As for the US President. Sometimes you have to fight and worry about public opinion afterwards. That time is closing in on him.

Col Dan's viewpoint / @ColDan11: IF THE US STRIKES IRAN, HOW “SHOULD” IT TAKE PLA...

Col Dan's viewpoint / @ColDan11:

IF THE US STRIKES IRAN, HOW “SHOULD” IT TAKE PLA...: IF THE US STRIKES IRAN, HOW “SHOULD” IT TAKE PLACE?    Rumors flew today of the US taking action against Iran. Leaks? You bet, it se...

IF THE US STRIKES IRAN, HOW “SHOULD” IT TAKE PLACE?

   Rumors flew today of the US taking action against Iran. Leaks? You bet, it seems leaks are coming from all directions with some of them being deliberate and some being by opportunistic individuals. Let’s go back to my discussion on this topic from a few days ago. Is the US being seen as impudent? Are the Mullahs way ahead in the game of perception? Yes. Is the US actually reluctant to take action or is it just the “perception”? Nope. Reluctance is the reality, at least for now. Does this hurt the US’s image? Absolutely. Does The Donald know this? Absolutely. Is that going over well? What do you think. Can The Donald jump into yet another conflict in the Middle East and do so at the beginning of a reelection campaign? That’s the BILLION dollar question. What does all of this lead up to? If you guessed an attitude of, “ Let’s do something and then get out”, then you may just win the prize. Can this be achieved before the big sit down in Bahrain? Maybe, but the operation would be place at risk the level of Iranian response? Today’s rumor was based upon the US striking some facility that is associated with the Mullah’s nuclear program. If this get in, get out, template has been chosen, is that the right target set? Perhaps and here is why. The redline of defending the Straits has already been violated. To act now, would be perceived as a desperate attempt to make up for being beaten over the head in the perception game. But.....but..... to strike a nuclear facility could be linked to the previous threat of violating the nuclear agreement...note... not treaty... Obama made sure this worthless agreement was not a treaty. To strike one of these Iranian facilities could be seen and hold true to the US’s word and somehow possibly making up for the slap in the face the tanker attacks created. Will this tactic work? Well, the reality is, that’s up to the Mullahs. Okay. Is there a better option? Why of course there is and it just so happens it’s the one I spoke of last week:)

IRGC/ AL-QUD FORCES:

   If you listened to my podcast or read my blog last week, you understood how I thought this event should play out. Hint, it plays out between DC and Moscow not DC and Tehran. If you didn’t listen or ready my input, shame on you, but here is the cheap version!  Strike the IRGC in Syria and Iraq. Strike the Al-Quds force in both nations as well. Take the path the IDF has been taking or over two years now, but take it in a dramatically larger scale. Warn the Russians to clear away from IRGC  and Al-Qud locations and tell them they need to do so as soon a possible or don’t blame the US for what happens. That word will get tot the Mullahs and that would be part of the plan. You see, those units can move, but they can’t hide, unless they do what they always do and mingle with the civilians in the area. If that happens, then strike the Syrian fixed positions and strike them hard. the price to pay for continuing to associate with the Mullahs would be high. The concept of Moscow still calling the shots in Syria would not change and the US tells them that before anything takes place. Make this event a two to three day event that introduces a new way of fighting that the US’s enemies are not use to witnessing. Yes, bring cyber to full front of the battlefield. Trust me, you have not seen anything near what that weapon system can accomplish from the US perspective. Timing is everything on that topic with the story of the Russian power grid this weekend. Let this “event” take place over the course of two to three days and from the second it starts, warn Iran just how bad it may get if their retaliatory actions are unacceptable. Short answer, fire on more tankers and Iran loses it’s Navy. Risky? What about conflict is not risky? In the end, the world gets to witness what happens to a force that is led by old men who have no understanding of modern warfare. No nation state rebuilding. No regime change. No follow on contracts to fix anything in Syria or Iraq. Just a devastated third rate military that never even sees the enemy that is destroying their proxy fighters.

DOES THIS NEED TO HAPPEN?

   Yes. Yes this needs to happen. Why does the Iranian nuclear facility scenario not work? Simple, that is not where the problem exist. That strategy is based upon not looking like you are making up for being made a fool. So what, don’t worry about looking like a fool. Hit them where it hurts and do so without any public fanfare in the open press. Look, the IRGC and the Al-Qud force have anticipated this type of event since the day the first four ships were struck. What they don’t understand is the nature of the attack that can fall on them. Might the Mullahs overreact? Again, the risk of response is always there. “ The Enemy get’s a vote”. That’s the saying and that is the truth, but if key support players, Moscow, informs the Iranian military commanders, NOT the old men in Tehran, but the military leaders, then and only then those leaders may understand they have other options. What does that mean? You know that answer, if you have followed me in the past. It’s an answer I will but out on my PODCAST tonight. Messy.fm/profile/coldansviewpoint

   

ATTACKS IN THE STRAITS OF HORMUZ. THE US IS LOSING THE PERCEPTION WAR

   Six ships in one month and what has been the response from the nation that stated it better not happen? In the game of “bluff” who is winning? My answer, the Mullahs, that’s who. Now, Does the US need another Iraq/ Afghanistan event? Only if you are part of the Military Industrial Complex should the answer be, “yes”. But, and this is a huge but, the US has a huge and I mean huge problem. The Obama administration set into motion a series out events on a global scale all based upon declaring a “redline” and then doing nothing. Yes, he tried to show he came to an agreement with Moscow and that was the basis for failing to strike when he warned he would, but the world never accepted that excuse. Well, folks, the US is repeating that same mistake. First and foremost, a nation cannons Twitter  it’s way around a crisis. I’m not sure the old men in Tehran even know how to sign on to a twitter account. I will tell you what they do know. They understand they have openly attacked 6 ships in the Straits of Hormuz, just as they warned they would, and absolutely nothing has happened, at least not a level the common person on the street can see. If we accept this status of events, then we need to anticipate what may come next and that is the purpose of this post.

REMINDER:

   Why are the old men in Tehran desperate enough to risk the actions they have taken? Has the US  pressured them to the point they are in a corner and see no way out? Well, if not, they are very.....very close.  Does a majority of their public see them as a thing of the passed, an oppressive past? Yes. Is the Bromance with the Russians over? If you know me, you know I’m convinced there never was such a thing. Are things sliding down hill fast for the tyrants who have terrorized the people of Iran for the past forty years? Yes. Here comes the real issue in this event!  Are they banking on the fact that The Donald is so unpopular, so under siege by his own country that he is powerless to strike at them for their actions? In their minds I believe they do. Think about it. When the attack on the two ships took place yesterday, the story CNN ran was how the US Secretary of State was blaming Iran “ without any proof”. Then, a few hours later, CNN had to east it’s words, as it often does, when it admitted the US Navy had video, “allegedly” ....yep they still couldn’t give in... that showed Iranian forces removing a device from the side of one of the ships. Again, do the old men in Tehran believe the US is unwilling to take action? Yes.....yes they do. Can the US defend the Straits? With one message from the President / Commander in Chief, the Iranian Military would find out.

PERCEPTION:

   Folks. The US is in a perception war with Tehran and Tehran is beating the US upside the head. How damaging is this reality in other matters around the world? We can only speculate, but I will tell you this history shows us that when perception is won, the next event is desperation. The perception war with the Mullahs has the US backed into a corner. Not the same economic corner the Mullahs find themselves in, but one that may be just as bad. A perception corner heading into a Presidential election cycle. You see, once that cycle starts in the US, it’s as if everything else just falls to the wayside. To make matters worse, I am still convinced the big sit down in Bahrain is priority # 1 for Team Trump. Boy Wonder, the Son in Law, has to have his day and that day will come in Bahrain. Here comes the bad news. That sit down is something the Mullah cannot allow to take place. In reality, it’s another nail in their coffin. Okay, I’ve complained enough about what the US is doing wrong. Let me give you my opinion of what should happen and trust me, something needs to happen soon.

HOW IT SHOULD GO:

   Yesterday, I posted a podcast.   Messy.fm/profile/coldansviewpoint .... yep.. I’m expanding my horizons:)..... in that podcast I concentrated on how the briefing on this latest attack was prepared and briefed to the US President. I talked about what people can look for as indicators of what may be happening next and thus prevent them from listing to the pay as you talk ..talking heads on the major news networks.  What I didn’t cover was what should happen. I deliberately took that approach so I could cover that issue in more detail on my blog. So, here you go.

   As soon as the PODUS briefing was over, the “batphone” should have buzzed in Moscow and here is what should have been said. “ Vlad. How are you? Look we and I do mean we, have a problem. That problem is one of your puppets, Iran. Now, I get it you have used them to make trouble for the US and I get it your are upset of the expansion of NATO into your old Buffer Zone, but, I am here to tell you, I have had enough with the Mullahs in Tehran. I also know you are growing tired of them as well, hell... they have militias shooting at your troops in Syria. Now, you and I could talk all day about this puppet issue, but I need you to do something for me before This all gets way ...way out of hand. The way I see it, we have two options. 1. You do what you do best and have the Mullahs sleeping with the fishes soon and then pick  new leadership for Iran. We get the Palestinian issue back on the table and I promise I’ll get the Israelis to sit down and listen or ....2.  I need you to move your forces and equipment away from any and all IRGC  / Al-Qud forces in Syria and Iraq and you know why I will need you to do that. Look, we can keep this from getting worse, be we don’t have a great deal of time. Ive been on the phone with the young Prince in Saudi and we are close to that young man making a dramatic mistake. You and I don’t need a region war that ends up with our economies damaged and I don’t want another Iraq or Afghanistan. If I have to do this, we are in an out, no ground troops, no ‘nation state building’ and I don’t even care about regime change. But, I will send a message to the leadership of the Iranian military that the future of their nation rest with their desire to continue to follow the idiots in Tehran or not. Here are my final thoughts my friend. If you truly want to back thee current government in Tehran, then this could easily get way out of hand. So, let’s help each other find a way out of this mess and I will guarantee you we will sit down and talk about your concerns as soon as it’s over and I think I know what they are. I have to go now. I have to prepare incase you don’t agree with my two options. I need your answer within the next few days. I hope we talk very....very...soon”.

   Sound crazy? That was how things were done back in the days of Ronald Reagan. That was how things got done and you know what....it worked. Look. The US is getting beat in the perception war with the Mullahs and as soon as the Mullahs see the Democrats and the mainstream media turn this into a 2020 issue, it’s going to get worse.....much ....much worse. We need a Reagan moment and we need it soon.

Self promotion time:

   My new podcast site.

Messy.fm.profile/coldansviewpoint.com

Check it out !!!!

ILLEGAL MIGRATION AND THE PANDEMIC THREAT. SHOULD WE WORRY?

Ebola and illegal immigrants, that’s a topic a growing number of people are talking about in the US. Is there a reason to be worried? Is there a risk of an outbreak in the US or any other country that is accepting illegals from places with a known risk?  Let’s look at this issue from a different perspective. Let’s look at how a true pandemic event would most likely take place and then I think you can come to your own conclusions. Let’s look at a few facts first.

Facts:

​Most of the illegal migration movements are taking place through a process that is not designed to monitor for pandemic threats. If someone boards a cargo ship and sails to a port in Central or South America, hidden away in some illegal fashion, the odds of the crew declaring those people are onboard is zero. 

​If you live in an area where there is an outbreak of a disease that can kill you and fear begins to rule the day, then you are going to attempt to leave. The intent to leave increases greatly when a rumor starts that people are not being allowed to leave….by the way… been there……seen that! Fear creates panic and panic grows the number of those attempting to leave. Where do you want to go? First off to a please that is safe from the threat and secondly, a place that has the ability to treat you if you do get sick. 

​Once you arrive near the area you are trying to get to, the last thing you want to do is let someone know you’re from a stricken location. By the way, let me inject some good news here. Boat rides like the ones I’m talking about are much longer than the incubation times of most deadly diseases. Whoops. Here is the bad news…………people can be carriers! Sorry.

Alright, without making the “how” process too lengthy, let me push on to my next point.

Response and History:

​Is the US ready for a true pandemic event? Well, that depends on what that event is. Just to have a starting point, let me go back to a story I was involved in as I attempt to paint a picture of “readiness”. Swine Flu in 2009. To say I was busy as that moment in time is an understatement. The idea that I needed to dedicate a percentage of my staff to a conference call about the flue seemed like overkill, but that is what I was told to do, so we did. That first day started with a call with several agencies and by the calls end, it seemed I was going to have to assign several members to the process. Well, over the course of the next few days, it became obvious this support concept would become the primary task for my staff. It seemed like the next day, all of us were 24/7 working on the issue of the growing threat of Swine Flu. What was the mortality rate projected to be? I don’t even remember, but I will tell you this some very scary concepts were being discussed at all levels, federal, state and local. Now, let me stop and digress for a minute. When I first retuned from the Middle East, back in 2003, one of my first assignments was to help the State of Texas prepare to achieve a “Green” status on CDC/ Center for Disease Control/ National Strategic Stockpile program. This was and is a program that is designed to combat pandemic events. Myself and a few of my Iron Majors, nicknames for midlevel Officers who can get just about anything done, sat in on planning meetings for months. At the end of the day, not only did we all understand what the national “plan” was, we thought we had a plan that might just work for the state of Texas. Folks, that was how I came to understand what was being talked about when the Swine Flu threat came into view. My staff and I began to listen to CDC and the states talk about events like, “Social Distancing”, Push Packages and Distribution points. It was one thing to have been in on the concept of planning for such an event but the reality of actually preparingfor these concepts was more than troubling. Over the course of the next few days, we had moved on to topics like, “The Immortals” and how these people would be identified in order to support the response process. By the way, “ The Immortals” are the people who get sick, but survive. We even planned on how to organize the Immortals inside our own forces. Scary stuff! 

​On the day the topic of closing public schools was about to be decided upon, at least in Texas, the reality of what would happen really took hold. If you close schools, people stay home. If people stay home, businesses close. If businesses close, the media, to include social media, creates a higher level of panic. Worse, if kids stay home, a percentage of First Responders don’t show up for work. People who make the sewer plants run, water and power, they all begin to be dramatically impacted. It became clear to most of us what the issue was going to be. The lethality rate was not the driving factor. The rumors and media hype would become the breaking point. Look, when you are in a series of daily calls that talk about chromosome jumps and airborne mutations, life gets real! Oh, by the way, the more people that are infected, the more mutation opportunities the virus gets, and the math is crazy. If that doesn’t drive you to the point of digging a whole to hide in, then you hear about “burnout rates” and “cooling off periods” before the virus comes back. By the beginning of the second week of the calls, we had to be careful who we had in the daily conversations given the anxiety levels it was creating and we are talking about troops who had been to war.

When it was all said and done, the virus failed to launch but it got close, so close the government was ready to implement what most would consider extreme measures. 

Side note: You don’t know the thought process of people until you tell them they could be in real trouble. Some of the sidebar conversations about how to prevent possible infected groups from traveling into other regions simply got ugly and I will leave it at that.

What does this all mean: 

​Should we be worried about the uncontrolled movement of large numbers of people from unknown places? How could we not be? Is there a process in place to check everyone that is pouring into other nations? Here is the reality. The US can have the best “plan” in the world but if other nations are not showing the commitment to watching for such an event, then that “plan” will not matter. The key to pandemic is early detection and then isolation. But and this is the huge but….if we can’t detect and isolate, then we must “Plan” for the failure of concept. Can the US stop a pandemic event from taking place? No. Can the US mitigate an event once it starts? Well folks, that’s a question of numbers and locations. By the way, where are all these people going that keep pouring into the US and other nations? Yep, they are going all over the place. Detection and Isolation in countless locations. That seems like a very…very risky assumption. Can the US and other countries check every ship that docks in a major port? No. Is the “detection” event going to take place where we don’t expect it? I hope not.  

MEXICO’S PATH TO REVOLUTION. 

   Mr. Lopez, President Lopez, apparently has a alliances with a very prominent figure in Mexico. The Good Doctor Mireles. If you have followed me for the past several years, then you know my theory of the Good Doctor. If you haven’t, I’m gong to give a very detailed background on this individual on my pending PODCAST. Yep. That’s right folks. I’ve stepped into the 21st Century. I almost....almost.... know how to do PODCAST now. The next thing you know, I will be writing code:) Okay. Why Do I bring up the relationship between the Good Doctor and Mr. Lopez? Do they have something the past President didn’t.... a real understanding of each other? Short answer.....yes.....yes they do. Is that astonishing given the Good Doctor’s history with the Mexican government, the same government that tried their best to kill him? Yep. Why? Why would this new President be any different than the past several? Why would he reach out to a man who could easily become the next General Villa? Yep. I said it....General Villa. Again, if you know me, I’ve been looking at the Good Doctor’s actions since 2013 and the beginning of his version of the Autodefensa movements. What is their “understanding” based on? Simple. Revolution! There.........I said it. Mr. Lopez and the Good Doctor are both willing to take Mexico into a Revolution if need be. Sound outrageous? If you think so, then you don’t know Mexico. 

 History:

  Without diving too deep in the past observations of the Good Doctor, let me make one very important point, one that I will cover in more detail on my PODCAST. At the time the Arab Spring was spreading, I was of the opinion that same mentality could reach the US and Mexico and other regions of Central and South America. Well, I was right about the US with the appearance of the Occupy Wall Street and that event made me even more convinced it was going to take place in Mexico. So, the Arab Spring, or Tunisian Virus, as I called it back then, was cooking along, up pops the Good Doctor in 2013. His Autodefensas organization in Michoacán was more than disturbing to some of us, but not to the level that the so called “experts” in DC would acknowledge. We had a series of debates as to just what this Autodefensa movement might indicate, but at the end of the day, as is always the case, nobody is smarter than the gang in DC....just ask them. As time went on, the cartels had to figure out a way to deal with what the Good Doctor had awoken in the common people of Mexico. The same people who no longer trusted the government, as if they ever did, and no longer trusted the police at all levels. The reality was, these groups were growing and they were taking on the cartels at an alarming rate. Now, as much as the cartels tried to get their paid for government officials to put a stop to the Autodefensas, it seemed the government was reluctant to move on the poor people of Mexico. Well, the next thing you know, the cartels did the next best thing, they infiltrated the movement. Fake Autodefensa popped up and key members were paid off....never forget in Mexico; “ Plata or Plomo”. Try as they may, the cartels could not get a handle on the groups. They even continued to grow and by 2015, it was clear not only did the cartels worry about the possibility of these groups, but the Old Guard in Mexico City did as well. You know, the people who don’t give a hoot about anything outside of Mexico City. The people that can fly away if it all goes bad. So, the next thing you know, the Good Doctor is arrested, but here was the catch. He was widely popular and killing him, at least for the government, well, that simply was not an option. Then an event took place that I predicted. They couldn’t kill him outright and the government couldn’t afford to have the cartels kill him, so............... he had a “accident” better yet......an aircraft “accident”. There was only one problem, he lived! Off to jail he went with the theory of “ out of site, out of mind”. The government had anticipated with his face being out of the limelight for a year or two and with the cartels infiltrating the Autodefensas, the whole concept would fall apart. Short answer, it didn’t work. 

  The Alliance:

 With a bad heart and a questionable support base, the Good Doctor held on. What happened next was more than an omen. The fright to have him released grew. Yep. Mexico’s elites, the ones that feared what he stood for more than they feared the cartels, were going to have to give in. He was let loose after say he was “sorry” for the Autodefensa movements. A statement he had no problem with making given he knew no one would  believe a word of it. 

Then, then the elections came and the next thing the PRE and the PAN realized their combined rule over Mexico had come to an end. Worse yet, Mr. López was not only going to change things in Mexico City, he was going to radically change things. Mr. Lopez, the guy who has called for “Revolution” in Mexico. 

Well, the next thing you know, the Good Doctor had gone from nearly public enemy number one to mouthpiece for the new President.. My oh my, how times change. Does the idea of these two wildly popular figures teaming up send shivers down the spine of the Old Guard in Mexico City? Ha. If you think The Donald showing up in DC rocked the boat, you can only imagine the drama in Mexico City.  

What was Missing:

   Back when I was “Observing”:) the Good Doctor and many other issues in Mexico, it became clear he was missing one key ingredient to spark a true revolutionary mindset. The students. He spend his energy on those that he knew, the poor farmers and working class. What he missed was the synergy that would come from pulling in the youth of the Universities. The fuel was there.... but the right flame was not used. Well, that is now changing. In the past few weeks, I’ve seen a change in the Good Doctor’s actions. It seems he has been on a roadshow not to see just the working class folks in the countryside, he’s closed the loop. He visiting and meeting with the students and folks, that is significant! Now, why is he doing this? Is he marching to the beat of his own drummer or is he executing the wishes of his fellow Revolutionary.... Mr. Lopez. 

The Real Goal?

   Mr. Lopez is out to rebalance the wealth of Mexico and he is framing this mission by saying he is pushing out corruption at all levels. Are those not the words of every revolutionary movement? The redistribution of wealth and the concept of such an event is as alien to the power base in Mexico City as it is anywhere else, but here is the kicker. Does he include the wealth of the cartels? Did he not all but admit he was going to go hands off on the drug Lords? Did he not say he was going to remove the. Military from the streets of Mexico? Just how does that defeat the strongest crime family in the Americas? Ugly answer. Perhaps he doesn’t intend to? The Good Doctor is a powerful tool and perhaps this tool has been given a mission. Secure the base for the next revolution. Secure the two groups that are key. The students and the poor.Yesterday, Doctor Mireles tweeted he was heading to the University in Guerrero and he was going to meet with the students as they reflected on the words of General Villa. “ It would be magnificent, I believe, to help make Mexico a happy place”. Talking to the students of a controversial University about the inspirational words of the last, great Revolutionary. Interesting. 

   Hugo Chavez came to power in Venezuela on the promise of a complete overhaul of the nation. He was the one that called for the next phase of the Bolivian Revolution. In the end, where did Venezuela end up? Children eating out of trash cans. Is Mexico heading for a revolution? It seems that way. Can it actually happen? What is there to prevent it when the President is so wildly popular? Is the Good Doctor working to support Mr. Lopez’s goals or is he plotting for the President’s failure? Ah......... now, there is the real question. These words have been spoken by the Good Doctor. To paraphrase, ‘ i will wait to see how his presidency goes? 

   Okay. What does this mean to the feast of us? What does it mean to the US? That folks, is the purpose of my pending PODCAST.

messy.fm/profile/coldansviewpoint. 

MEXICO’S MILITARY IS UNDER SIEGE AND IT’S FROM THEIR OWN PRESIDENT.

​I want you to imagine something. I want you to imagine waking up one morning and seeing a news story about a community in the US taking 40 members of the United States Military hostage along with a dozen state police. Would that story shock you? Would you start to doubt the stability of the nation? Well, to the people of Mexico, this is old news and even worse, it’s news most don’t even care about. Mexico. The US’s “Neighbor”. Mexico, the nation that no one dares to call, “third world”. And finally, Mexico, the country where it’s own government post a map of just how much of the nation they don’t control. Why is the US’s border with Mexico nearing a catastrophic event? Just how much worse can things get? Hold on for that answer, because the truth is, “we ain’t seen nothing yet”.

SEDENA:

​When Mr. Lopez, ya, that’s right, I call him Mr. Lopez because that’s easy and I am not culturally attuned with spelling out hyphenated names….so…He’s Mr. Lopez. If that upsets you, then just mentally replace Mr. Lopez with “AMLO” and you may feel better, was campaigning for the Presidency of Mexico, he made one huge promise to the people of Mexico. He stated he would remove the Mexican Military from the streets of Mexico. Now, if you don’t know the past decade of history in Mexico, then you may not think that’s a big deal. In most movies the US makes about Central and South America, it’s the military that is seen doing everything that typical law enforcement is tasked with in the US. Bottomline, most people here probably didn’t pay any attention to Mr. Lopez’s statement. Truth be known, they most likely didn’t even pay attention to the whole election process in Mexico. But, to the people of Mexico, that was a dramatic statement. A little history here. Over ten years ago, the corruption inside local, state and even federal civilian law enforcement was so bad, Mexico decided to replace much of the process especially at the local and state level with the military. Bad idea? You bet it was and some of us who were “working” issues to the US’s South made that known. The good news was, the issue was so bad, most of the people in Mexico supported the concept. Then, like some of us predicted, it all started to go wrong. The cartels did what they did with the civilian law enforcement, they paid the military to leave them alone or worse, do their dirty work. All of them? No. Many members are patriotic and hate the idea of corruption, but here was and is the problem. The payoffs went all the way to the Top. It’s hard to be an honest Captain at the Company level when your General is on the cartel’s payroll. 

​As bad as things became, they got worse, much worse. Within three or four years, you had military members and even units terrorizing the public every bit as bad as the cartels and the dirty civilian cops. That took place in two directions. 1. The military became frustrated and overreacted and the frequency of those overreactions became alarming to say the least. 2. The level of corruption inside the military reached a point that not only did the public not trust them, they didn’t and don’t trust each other. Yep. It was and is that bad. 

​Along comes Mr. Lopez and being the far Left Socialist that he is, the same guy calling for a “revolution” in Mexico, an important point you cannot forget, he makes a promise to the people of Mexico to remove the military, really SEDENA, from the streets. His answer became a new form of law enforcement, a Mexican National Guard. Hint, the past three Presidents have all come up with their “answer” to the problem and all three failed miserably. Then his next problem arose. How do you stand up a 60,000 person force to replace the military on the streets? Answer, you can’t. Yes, Mr. Lopez stated most of these members would come from SEDENA, but in the end, what did that solve and do the people of Mexico buy the concept? We are to believe 60k members of SEDENA have already been screened for illegal activities and placed into this new National Guard? Silly. What they did was change the uniforms slightly and then put them right back out on the streets. Here is the other problem, I’m not sure how many have even made that transition. The reality is, the vast majority of military members working local / state law enforcement are still active members of SEDENA. 

​Okay, if you are a member of SEDENA and you are trying to hold on to your integrity and patriotism, all while you see this new force trying to take to the streets, then you suddenly hear rumors of units not being allowed to defend themselves, where does your mind go? What does a soldier think when he hears the rumors of units being detained and disarmed by civilian groups, groups that in the minds of these soldiers work for the cartels. What happens when the common soldier finds out the orders to not defend yourself comes from all the way at the top? Underpaid and swimming in a sea of corruption, what makes the “good guys and girls” of SEDENA keep going? At what point does it all just seem not worth the effort? Yep, this is the answer from Mr. Lopez. If he can’t pull SEDENA off the streets of Mexico as fast as he would like, he will do the next best thing…………….tell them they can’t engage the public. Now, ask yourself. If you were a cartel Boss, would you get in a gun fight with the military, an environment where they can defend themselves, or would you just get the public to rush the units as they move into town? Is this whole thing a horrific mess? Can it get worse? Yep. 

Breaking Point: 

​You are a member of SEDENA, a good one, and you wake up, get in uniform and prepare to moveout on a mission to find cartel gunmen in a town. As you are eating breakfast, your buddies are grumbling, still, about the unit that was “detained” a few days ago and made to look like fools. What goes through your head? Is it really worth it? The pay? Funny! The pride, your President is taking that from you. Your loyalty? No one believes you. What makes you step into the vehicles and move out? What is holding Mexico together? You are. What happens if you and those like you just give up? Answer, we will see a Mexico that falls into a true state of crisis. What is a General without Troops? A costume. 

What is Mr. Lopez truly pushing for? Remember where I said, don’t forget his calls for a “Revolution”. Mexico’s economic indicators are slipping all the while as Mr. Lopez funds more and more social programs…..you know…..freebees. His drive for the redistribution of wealth has Mexico on the path to be Venezuela’s twin. Here I go again. If you want to see a real mass migration crisis along the US border, then sit back and watch Mexico fall apart. Read on social media how the PAN and the PRE and teaming up to take on Mr. Lopez. Are the PRE and the PAN corrupt? Silly question. Did they provide a somewhat stable environment compared to Mr. Lopez? Absolutely. Do you think I’m making these stories up about the military units being “detained”. Google, Borderland Beat and Sierra De Guerrero. You will find your answer. Just how bad is Mexico. “ You ain’tseen nothing yet”!