IF THE US STRIKES IRAN, HOW “SHOULD” IT TAKE PLACE?

   Rumors flew today of the US taking action against Iran. Leaks? You bet, it seems leaks are coming from all directions with some of them being deliberate and some being by opportunistic individuals. Let’s go back to my discussion on this topic from a few days ago. Is the US being seen as impudent? Are the Mullahs way ahead in the game of perception? Yes. Is the US actually reluctant to take action or is it just the “perception”? Nope. Reluctance is the reality, at least for now. Does this hurt the US’s image? Absolutely. Does The Donald know this? Absolutely. Is that going over well? What do you think. Can The Donald jump into yet another conflict in the Middle East and do so at the beginning of a reelection campaign? That’s the BILLION dollar question. What does all of this lead up to? If you guessed an attitude of, “ Let’s do something and then get out”, then you may just win the prize. Can this be achieved before the big sit down in Bahrain? Maybe, but the operation would be place at risk the level of Iranian response? Today’s rumor was based upon the US striking some facility that is associated with the Mullah’s nuclear program. If this get in, get out, template has been chosen, is that the right target set? Perhaps and here is why. The redline of defending the Straits has already been violated. To act now, would be perceived as a desperate attempt to make up for being beaten over the head in the perception game. But.....but..... to strike a nuclear facility could be linked to the previous threat of violating the nuclear agreement...note... not treaty... Obama made sure this worthless agreement was not a treaty. To strike one of these Iranian facilities could be seen and hold true to the US’s word and somehow possibly making up for the slap in the face the tanker attacks created. Will this tactic work? Well, the reality is, that’s up to the Mullahs. Okay. Is there a better option? Why of course there is and it just so happens it’s the one I spoke of last week:)

IRGC/ AL-QUD FORCES:

   If you listened to my podcast or read my blog last week, you understood how I thought this event should play out. Hint, it plays out between DC and Moscow not DC and Tehran. If you didn’t listen or ready my input, shame on you, but here is the cheap version!  Strike the IRGC in Syria and Iraq. Strike the Al-Quds force in both nations as well. Take the path the IDF has been taking or over two years now, but take it in a dramatically larger scale. Warn the Russians to clear away from IRGC  and Al-Qud locations and tell them they need to do so as soon a possible or don’t blame the US for what happens. That word will get tot the Mullahs and that would be part of the plan. You see, those units can move, but they can’t hide, unless they do what they always do and mingle with the civilians in the area. If that happens, then strike the Syrian fixed positions and strike them hard. the price to pay for continuing to associate with the Mullahs would be high. The concept of Moscow still calling the shots in Syria would not change and the US tells them that before anything takes place. Make this event a two to three day event that introduces a new way of fighting that the US’s enemies are not use to witnessing. Yes, bring cyber to full front of the battlefield. Trust me, you have not seen anything near what that weapon system can accomplish from the US perspective. Timing is everything on that topic with the story of the Russian power grid this weekend. Let this “event” take place over the course of two to three days and from the second it starts, warn Iran just how bad it may get if their retaliatory actions are unacceptable. Short answer, fire on more tankers and Iran loses it’s Navy. Risky? What about conflict is not risky? In the end, the world gets to witness what happens to a force that is led by old men who have no understanding of modern warfare. No nation state rebuilding. No regime change. No follow on contracts to fix anything in Syria or Iraq. Just a devastated third rate military that never even sees the enemy that is destroying their proxy fighters.

DOES THIS NEED TO HAPPEN?

   Yes. Yes this needs to happen. Why does the Iranian nuclear facility scenario not work? Simple, that is not where the problem exist. That strategy is based upon not looking like you are making up for being made a fool. So what, don’t worry about looking like a fool. Hit them where it hurts and do so without any public fanfare in the open press. Look, the IRGC and the Al-Qud force have anticipated this type of event since the day the first four ships were struck. What they don’t understand is the nature of the attack that can fall on them. Might the Mullahs overreact? Again, the risk of response is always there. “ The Enemy get’s a vote”. That’s the saying and that is the truth, but if key support players, Moscow, informs the Iranian military commanders, NOT the old men in Tehran, but the military leaders, then and only then those leaders may understand they have other options. What does that mean? You know that answer, if you have followed me in the past. It’s an answer I will but out on my PODCAST tonight. Messy.fm/profile/coldansviewpoint