SILVER BULLETS AND  IRANIAN WEAPON SYSTEMS.

   The word is out an offensive cyber operation was executed against IRGC missile control networks last Thursday during or just prior to the on again, off again US response to the downing of the drone. Is this big news? In a way, yes. Last week, I posted if this event was to take place, it would contain actions that would send a deeper message to all of the US’s enemies. It appears one of those events took place. Here is the problem. Did it take place by choice or did it take place by accident? You might ask, “How could it have been an accident”? Well, let me tell you my opinion and you decide.

The Speed of Cyber:

   Scenario. Part of the COA / Course of Action / chosen included a offensive cyber attack against Iranian Command and Control networks. Not a new concept by far, but this attack was based upon the ability to completely disrupt the IRGC’s ADA / Air Defense and other offensive Missile platforms. For those of you that know air warfare, you understand the importance of “suppression” prior to aircraft and other platforms entering enemy controlled airspace. Think of the old Wild Weasel missions. ( Look it up if you need to). Now, that part of the package would have been executed first just as it would have been if physical suppression air assets were being utilized, but this time, the element of surprise was also going to have a message. The US’s new “suppression” capabilities were now based on, at least to some level, cyber events to cripple defending and offensive weapons’ platforms. Yes, it was going to be a message and most likely a huge one, one not limited to the old men in Tehran. Now, as impressive as that all might sound, it is very likely a fatal mistake was made and one that was made at the highest level. You see, the process to launch this part of the package is based upon keyboard strokes. A process that takes minutes to execute instead of hours, days or even weeks to prep such as aircraft and ship movements. Think along the lines of pressing the button for a nuke launch. If, and I want to emphasize.....if, the President authorized the stile and then changed his mind, that phase of the plan may have already been underway. Is there the ability to pull back malicious code? I don’t know, but if the phase of the operation that needed to be executed first was underway and then the word to haunt was given, then those enemy networks would have been struck with nothing happening behind that phase. Aircraft were reported to have been in the air when the story goes they were called off. Not the first time Ive seen that, but were other operations already being executed? You can almost assure yourself they were.  That’s the issue folks. The speed of cyber warfare is something very new to not only the military leadership, but to political leadership as well. If the IC / Intelligence Community informed the Combatant Commander it appeared the Mullahs were prepared to retaliate at a disproportionate level  and that information was passed to the President, then it’s logical that operation may have been called off...and that is a story for another discussion....trust me, but cyber, like nukes, takes place with the push of a few buttons and I don’t know if there is an auto destruction button. those codes are most likely already embedded and simply awaiting an activation code. Okay. Is this bad news or does it matter? Well, in my opinion, it’s bad news and here is why.

Silver Bullets:

   Throughout the course of weapon’s development, some have been cast as “Silver Bullets”.   Weapons that are kept off the radar for two reasons. 1. To keep the enemy from developing counter measures and 2. Showing other enemies who are watching a conflict just how dangerous their adversaries might be. The real danger becomes, when a nation utilizes a Silver Bullet system and then doesn’t follow through with the rest of the plan or leaks the system is out there. Some argued the use of stealth fighters in Desert Storm was the wrong utilization and that they should have continued to be non disclosed for a greater threat to the nation. In the end, they were used if for no other reason than to send a message to the Russians and the Chinese. So, here in rest the issue. Did the US utilize a Silver Bullet against the IRGC and then fail to execute the rest of the plan? Did the US misfire a Silver Bullet? Only a few folks know that real answer, but you can bet the enemy now realizes what may happen to them and they will change. Those weapon’s platforms may have damaged command and control networks, but the follow on strikes that would have physically destroyed them didn’t take place.  Here is the key to my posting this discussion today. Political leaders must....MUST... have an understanding beyond paying attention to a briefing for a few minutes when it comes to 21st Century warfare. You can call back aircraft. You can selfdistruck ICMBS, but can you pull back a weapon that is as powerful as a nuke ? It’s a new day with cyber and political leaders better do their homework. If we just waisted a key Silver Bullet, then the public will probably never know.