THE GREAT “FIND” IN THE TEXAS AND THE CONSEQUENCES 

Well, I took the past two weeks off, with the exception of writing one post for Khaled. It’s that time of year when Christmas lights consume just about every minute of my free time. Just about finished and if you would like to see our handiwork, here is the link.   http://www.annacourt.com/. Ok, enough with the shameless promotion. Made a minor change in the time of day that I will post, but the adjustment should help some of my overseas readers.

Okay; in the past two weeks rumors have been flying on potential “deals” made over the issue of the Middle East.  Nothing new there as the concept of “deals” is practically the middle name for the whole region!   Trump is or has been working a “deal” with the Tsar. The Tsar and Trump are working “deals” with Egodan, both together and separately. One man’s deal is another man’s betrayal and so on and so on…. By now, I would be willing to bet Trump is beginning to understand that part of the world he only thought he understood. Every President and every world leader enter office thinking they have a grasp of what is taking place and how to deal with major and minor issues. What most of them don’t realize is taking power is like trying to keep up with junk email. As soon as you clear out a dozen emails, 300 more show up. Who sifts through them? Who priorities them and how well do they know the mindset of the leader they are sorting for?  Yep. The insanity of the initial days of power soon turn into the grind that becomes life in general for all world leaders.

It would be easy right now to go back to the story of two Cities…. Aleppo and Mosul and how the drag race to see who can claim victory going. But, that is not the story of the past two weeks. The story that slipped by the general public was huge news to the three world powers and that is what I will address today.  Read these two links and then I’ll continue on with this post.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/17/us/midland-texas-mammoth-oil-discovery/

https://sputniknews.com/business/201611291047965456-us-gas-exports-europe/

Let’s cut to a few very simple statements and then follow up with a couple of simplistic questions.

Statements:

The Tsar’s entire concept of controlling the economic speed and future of Europe was and still is based on fuel and his control of Europe’s dependency on his gas.

The timing of this amazing find is seen as suspect in Russia and in the OPEC nations.

The ramifications of this story will change any “deals” that have been proposed for solving the conflicts in the Middle East.

The Dragon is still analyzing what this story means to China and how they will need to react.

Questions:

Was the release of this story, “timed”? Even if the answer was no, would anyone it impacts outside the US believe the answer?

Were the ramifications of such a story analyzed prior to its release?

Who was knowledgeable of this find and how much of the story was leaked ahead of the public announcement?

If you are confused over this issue, let me see if I can help you understand the depth of what is taking place.

From day one, Putin’s “Master Plan”, as I like to call it, has been all about Europe! The actions he has taken in the Middle East, the core value, are based on actions taken by the West in Europe, more specifically Eastern Europe.  NATO expansion and the promise of no NATO expansion, the Ukraine and Crimea are threats to a man who lives his life believing that everyone is as devious as he is. A man who’s paranoia is more than just a personal trait. Paranoia and feeling inferior to Western Europe is nearly part of Russian DNA with over a thousand years of history to base these feelings on.  

Fuel. The life blood of Russia. Natural Gas, the commodity the Tsar based his revitalization dreams upon. If he can control the fuel to Europe, he can control Europe’s ability to once again pull away from Russia, shun “Mother Russia” as Europe has done for hundreds of years.  How upsetting could changing this “Master Plan” be to the Tsar? What would he be willing to do to prevent his dreams from falling apart? How important is Russia to a true Nationalist like Putin?

From the US standpoint, on face value, the find in Texas is just another argument for energy independence. It’s yet another nail in the coffin of Middle Eastern dependency. More importantly, it’s another real blow to the survival of several key OPEC Gulf nation’s status in the world. Competition is dangerous concept when you are the one at the top of the business. Competition is a deliberate act to a nation that lives in paranoia.

Export! Exporting natural gas to Europe, even the threat of doing so, even a slight increase of doing so, it all has and will have repercussions.

Good luck future President Trump. Playing this “find” is a difficult game and leverage can be lost in a blink of an eye.

Great news for the US and even greater news for the State of Texas. Everybody else? Well……. Let’s see what happens. 

… HAS THIS ISSUE FALLEN OFF THE WORLD’S RADAR?

I’ve taken the last week off as I’ve been working on an even more important project; Anna Court Christmas Lights. For those that know me, you understand what that means and for those that don’t, well, I’m a Christian and Christmas is my favorite time of year.  

Today, as I was relishing in my Christmas Spirit, I received a call from a friend on Facebook. I couldn’t answer as I was working on my neighbor’s water heater and for that I must apologize to Khaled. By the time I read the text message from him, I realized just how upset he was with an issue that, at one time, was a favorite topic of my postings…..Syria. You see, to me, Syria is an interesting point in a changing world.  A world that frankly has more dire and more dangerous events taking place than Syria. But, to Khaled, Syria and the crisis that is now in its sixth year, well, it’s much more than that. To Khaled and his family, it’s personal, its life and death not just for people he knows. I know what it’s like to have event’s happening to family and knowing the whole time you have little influence on what happens to them. Hopelessness is a human trait that no one should have to experience. 

How can I help Khaled? How is Khaled’s story any different than someone just like him reaching out from Central Africa or the drug war ravaged towns of Mexico? We all understand, misery is a human experience that has existed since the beginning our race. I have only one simple, somewhat undefinable explanation. I have and have had an undeniable passion for a part of the world I spent an important part of my life in.  Over twenty five years ago as a young Officer in the US military I stepped onto the land called the Middle East to serve in a conflict for no other reason that the fact that my government sent me there. Did I have family there? No.  Was my ability to provide for my family tied to what took place in that part of the world? No. Did I have passion for what was taking place there? No. My duty was to serve as my country saw fit and to keep the service members who served under my command safe while we all executed the will of our nation. That is how my journey with the Middle East started. That is not how it was maintained and that is not how it will end. What I found in that region of the world was friendship, honesty and comradery. These characteristics are not uncommon in other parts of the world, but other parts of the world is not where I served in my first conflict. What’s that old saying about first impressions?

Syria! Is the tragedy that is called Syria different from any other tragedy in the world? More importantly, has the world lost interest in the events of Syria? Yes, women and children are dying. Yes, extreme violence is a common event. So, again, I ask the question. Why is Syria different? Why should the world care? What is taking place that makes Syria important? Well, that question is the real key to the answer I am about to give you.

In the 21^st century, many inhuman events have already taken place in the so called modern world, but none of them have decomposed into a conflict that now has world powers positioning for leverage. None of the other “events” pits two factions of the same religion, a religion of over a billion people, against each other on the same battlefield. Syria is “different” because the region is different! Look. The most popular book in the word, the Bible, speaks of this region and the future of mankind. The Apocalypses so feared by those who follow the Old Testament is not based upon events in South America. It is not based upon the injustices of Central Africa. The Middle East.  That is the region of the world that is said to determine the fate of mankind.

Will religion and the conflict brought on by organized religion set the fate of the Human race? If you are a believer in the Old Testament, then this question is an easy one to answer. By the way, the religion that has the entire Middle East in crisis happens to follow the writings of the Old Testament. Let that sink in for a minute.

Earlier, I asked the question, has the world lost interest in Syria and for that matter the events in Iraq and Yemen? Will the change of leadership in the US equate into any level of resolution with the conflicts of the region? Will the new US President simply leave the region up to the “others”?  The recent findings of even more fuel in the US could very well influence that answer.

Over five years ago, I began to write about the events in Syria and that was for a reason.  The region is important to the future of the human race.

Religion, struggles for world dominance and technology. The ability for one person to learn how to kill millions. The age old trend for the world to simply look the other way. These are dangerous facts  in the 21^st century.

Syria matters, because the region matters. That book I mentioned………….well…… read the part that I mentioned and believe or not believe. That is your choice. I say the region is important and that is why an answer must be found. That is what I will write about next.  What is the potential answer/ answers?

Khaled. I said I would write to the issue like I used to. I cannot change the pain of the innocence in Syria. Sadly, the innocent are often the first and greatest causality of senseless violence. 

THE CHALLENGE OF FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION IN THE 21^ST CENTURY.

I’m going to deviate from my schedule of postings on President Trump’s challenges. Most of what I have been addressing deals with issues outside the United States. After watching, for the second night in a row, the so called “Not my President” protest in the US, I decided to address the internal challenges for the inbound President. Honestly, the issue I am about to cover transcends potential problems for the new US President, but I will use the “Not my President” events as the most current, relative example of the challenges governance, at all levels, anywhere in the world is facing and will continue to face. Some of what I am about to say is far….far from politically correct, so, at the end of this post, if you are offended, well, just add that to your list of issues you may need to be consoled on. Perhaps you could find some “safe space”?

Do the people of the US have the right to peacefully, note the word peacefully, the election of Donald Trump? Yes. On this day of all days in the US, Veteran’s Day, the right to assemble and the right to voice your opinion is unquestionable. The right to burn the Nation’s symbol of freedom, the flag, is even protected and amazingly the very people who love that flag understand the importance of being able to dishonor it. The US’s Founding Fathers understood the value of allowing the people to express their contempt! It is and has always been a relief valve for social tension. It has not always lead to peaceful reconciliation, but the option of allowing citizens to voice their anger has often been the difference between violence and resolution.  Even today, the President Elect gave a statement how important it was to allow the “Not My President” groups to speak their piece.

So, what is the issue? Why is the ability to express yourself becoming more dangerous not just in the US, but throughout the world?

The world is changing and continues to change. Not a shocking statement. It’s been taking place since  the Big Bang! But, we now live in a world where a person’s or group’s actions can be seen by the rest of the word virtually within seconds of the event taking place. It’s not tomorrows new on the news stand. Traditional journalism has no time to vet or shape the event. Governments don’t have time to respond to or in some cases reshape the event. Governance is now hostage to social media. In today’s world, 100 people can take to the streets and if the picture is properly edited, Photoshop, and the right words are inserted to the post, the world may be told hundreds of thousands have taken to the streets.  I give you the first few days of the Arab Spring in Cairo Egypt as a classic example.  200k people created an event that was watched all over the world without tuning into major news networks or waiting for “official” statements from political leadership. 200k people change the course of history for a country of over 88 million. Do the math! Not even one quarter of one percent of the population lead to a crisis that destabilized Egypt for over three years! A crisis that was leveraged by Egypt’s enemies from the moment the protest started. In the 21^st century every act, even by single person can create an event that virtually turns into a movement overnight. Yes, singular events have created movements in the past, but they took time. It took time for the word of an event to spread. It took time for groups to meet and discuss how they might react. That time allowed governments to shape a response. It allowed strong government’s time to answer the questions that could lead to the event being controlled. That doesn’t happen now. Days of “what happened” discussion must now take place in a matter of hours and in some cases, minutes. No government can respond it that amount of time and any answer that takes the traditional days to formulate is now seen as suspect!

In our new world, almost all actions can and often do have consequences, consequences that are unpredictable and thus producing poor responses.  So, if one of the consequences of the “Not My President” protest is to embolden the enemies of the US, then what price does the nation pay for the right to assemble and the right to free speech? Should group of people who make up less than 1 percent of the population be permitted to disrupt the safety of 300 million? If you think our enemies are not embolden by events such as the “Not My President” protest, then you do not understand the changing world I am talking about. If you do understand the dynamics of this new world, then the next question is even more vital to the nation’s future? What should be done about it? At what level does the risk to the nation become more important than the right to assemble and free speech? Who gets to decide?

The enemies of free speech, free choice and yes Christianity will take every opportunity to damage the pillar of the Western world.

Pay close attention to the article I have attached and then ask yourself. In this changing world, what are the dangers of our current “rights”? More importantly, what are the dangers of even thinking about changing them?

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/blogs/567492-jihadists-cheer-trump-victory

PRESIDENT TRUMP AND NATO 

What are the real expectations of President Trump when it comes to the issue of NATO.  Yes, every NATO member heard what he said on the campaign trail and yes all of them know what is said during a campaign is often lost the day after the voting is complete. So, what is President Trump really going to do on the topic of NATO? More importantly, when might he address the topic? The truth of the matter is, the issue of NATO will most likely not work its way onto the table until several other key issues are addressed first. Why? Because the American people really don’t care what Trump said about NATO. Most of them probably don’t even know what his stance was to begin with. I would be willing to bet some of the people he has chosen to be his advisors, especially military advisors, may have already been given guidance on what to say and who to say it to. The idea of retired Generals taking unofficial messages to key NATO members is more than possible. It’s highly unlikely it hasn’t happened. That is what backdoor politics is all about. Perhaps the topic will not even resurface? If it does, it will not be because of the NATO members pushing the issue. One person may place the NATO topic on the table.

The Tsar!

If backdoor, unofficial communications are already underway, then we can assume one of the primary topics is the future relationship between the Tsar and President Trump. We can also assume the topic of NATO is front and center from the Tsar’s side of the table. If you want to see the point in time the NATO members begin to worry about President Trump’s vision for NATO, it will be prior to the meeting between the Tsar and President Trump. Yes, some of the backdoor communications on the topic will have already taken place, but the NATO members will be more than concerned on what the Tsar has to say to President Trump on the topic and that slice of the puzzle may not take place until after the actual discussion. The US can give NATO members a feeling for where they stand on NATO, but does the inputs of the Tsar change the game? Does the Tsar’s plan for addressing NATO with President Trump have unforeseen impacts? Yep. You can bet it will. Why? I will tell you why. Remember what I’ve been saying about the Chinese and the Russians and the potential for a Trump Presidency. The “Plan”. The Tsar’s plan will include a huge annex on the topic of NATO and as a matter of fact, I am willing to bet NATO may very well be the centerpiece of the “plan”! NATO’s actions in Eastern Europe are far more disturbing to the Tsar and the Russian people than the American public realizes.

Bargaining Chip.

Trump is a shrewd businessman and it’s not difficult for me to believe he may very well see NATO as a bargaining chip with the Tsar. It’s also very likely, the Tsar has anticipated this chip! If you are sitting there thinking, “Wont the NATO members worry the US may use NATO’s future as a bargaining chip? Will the US let us in on the plan”? Yep. That is exactly what could be taking place. Remember, Trump’s comments and attitude about NATO played much heavier in Europe than it did here. If Trump has team of experts working on the NATO issue, the team working backdoor issues, then some of that fear may be reduced. Again. That only holds true until the Tsar has a chance to hear the pitch. Is Trump the type of leader who would look at an issue such as NATO as a barging chip? Absolutely, even if some advise him not to. As a matter of fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if he approaches many topics from the standpoint of having, “bargaining chips”. Bargaining, negotiating as politicians call it, is the cornerstone of the international business world. A world Trump has been playing in for years.

The future of NATO.

Although NATO is not a first one hundred day item for the inbound President, It is a topic that will be placed on the table and when it does, we will see if Trump’s perceptions of NATO was just campaign rhetoric or his real opinion. NATO members need to pay their own way. If that is truly a stance the US is going to take, then the NATO members are going to need to know that soon. Again, the issue of backdoor communications held by retired Generals as they talk to old friends. If we hear more talk, even more than we are hearing now, of a European Defense Force, then we may have an indication the Trump team has been showing the NATO members where the US is heading.

NATO and the Tsar. That is going to be a very important event that many in the US simply are not aware of. They will be! Changes in the US and the classic Law of Second Order Effects!  Trump knows the casino business and "chips"!  

SO… TRUMP WON! NOW WHAT?

Well, the one thing I will not talk about tonight is the question that was asked at least a thousand times on every major news network all day long. “ How did this happen”? but If I was going to talk about that topic, I would answer it in one easy sentence. You cannot ignore the opinions of 85 percent of the landmass of a country for years and not believe there will be repercussions.

Okay. Off of that dead-end street!

Donald Trump is the inbound President of the US! What does that mean to the rest of the world? Let me take a very simplistic approach to what most would love to turn into a complex conversation. The talking heads are probably already on chapter five of their latest books on Donald Trump and his rise to power. There is money to be made and time is wasting for the so called “experts”.

What does Trump mean for international relations? Let’s take a trip around the world and see if we can nail down a few cornerstone issues.

EUROPE:

Yep, the Liberal leaders of Europe seemed to be in a near panic as events unfolded in the US yesterday. For months, all the US has heard is how Europe was against Trump coming into power and how disastrous it would be for the world, the world as in Europe!  Well, if that is true, then their reality is here! Why? Why were the Liberal leaders of Europe so frighten of Trump? Now, most of the major new network experts in the US and Europe would tell you it’s about trade, economic stability and the real buzzword in Europe now days, immigration! Here’s my reaction to those concerns? Hogwash! That’s not what has the Liberal Leaders of Europe upset. What has caused their panic is the fear of further momentum! Yes, momentum! Some have come close to the real issue by referencing BREXIT and how Trump’s election might mean a BREXIT round two for Europe. Why, because Trump campaigned on fair trade, a topic that is foreign even evil to Liberal Socialist. But again, that is not the core issue of the panic in Europe. What the Liberal of Europe truly fear is the momentum a Trump victory may give to the Conservative and yes even some of the Nationalist movements in Europe. Does anyone really believe for a minute the French are worried about trade with the new US President? Nope. What France is worried about and perhaps rightfully so, is a young lady by the name of Le Pen! What Europe fears is President Trump adding momentum to the 2017 elections throughout Europe. So, in the end, it’s not about what Trump says about trade or Europe paying their fair share for its own defense, a noble idea in my book. It’s about staying in power, something every Politician sets as their first goal the second an election is over. Yes. Europe has every reason to worry. The title wave that drowned the Clinton quest for power is the same wave that is building in Europe. The problem for Europe will be, their inability to mitigate the wave’s impact. The US still has a balancing capability with its structure of governance. That cannot be said for much of Europe! Le Pen. She may be about to come to the front of the race in France and that will scare the Liberals of Europe more than Trump.

THE MIDDLE EAST:

For over a year, many of my friends in that region have expressed to me time and time again how Trump will be bad for the Middle East. How Hillary was a better choice. Yes, Hillary had struck a deal with the Saudis. The Clinton’s would strike a “deal” with anyone willing to donate funds to the “foundation”! But, the question I have always responded with is, “why”? Why would Trump be bad for the region? Is he “pro-Israel”? Yes. What American political leader isn’t? Had Trump made comments about what the US should have done in Iraq? You know, keeping the oil after getting rid of Saddam? Yes, that sounded rather ruthless, at least to the Arabs in the region. But, let me ask a question? Didn’t the US already accomplish this task? Whose companies are pumping that oil? Where is it going? Even the funds the Iraqis do receive go towards topic the US would be paying for anyway. If the Daesh didn’t believe this oil was supporting the “West”, then why would they attack it? Is Trump less willing to spend money on the region’s conflicts? Yes. Is Trump most likely amenable to letting the Russians take the lead in Syria? Most likely. Will Trump not work to address the Palestinian issue? Well, his statement was he might take a different approach to working the issue. I would say, let’s wait to see what the different approach might be. In the End, is President Trump going to change the US’s stance towards the region? I would say yes, but think of it this way. Can the US’s policy towards the region get any worse? The US foreign policy ship for the Middle East is lost at sea. Perhaps President’s administration will run aground. So, to my friends in the region, I say this. Let us see what takes place in the next year. In-shal-la!

MEXICO:

Okay, here comes a hard hitting analysis of the issues Mexico may now face with a President Trump. Let me keep this one real, real simple and it’s not a politically correct stance! If Mexico wants to solve its issue of illegal immigration into the US, then form a government in Mexico that is actually responsive to the needs of its people. If Mexico doesn’t want to keep the non-Mexican waves of people in Mexico after the US truly shuts its borders, then figure out a way to close their Southern Borders.  Does anyone in the Mexican government really believe the good people of Mexico who are willing to walk hundreds of miles, run the risk of being kidnapped, raped and or murdered look forward to doing so? Does anyone in Mexico City believe the people of Mexico don’t want to stay in Mexico with their families, on the land their ancestors grew up on? It’s time to speak the truth. Until Mexico has a form of governance that actually cares for the people of Mexico and not just for the gated subdivisions in Mexico City, the Immigration crisis with the US will not be solved. Imagine if President Trump sits down at a table with the Mexican President, a shady person to say the least, and has the following conversation. “Okay, I will not build the wall on your border and I will not end NAFTA if the following two things happen. One, you close Mexico’s Southern Borders and anyone that does make it in to your county is kept in your country. No more train rides to the US border. Second, you will begin to invest in the parts of your country other than Mexico City and your tourist cities. You will take care of your people and show them your government is willing to fight corruption and represent the people of Mexico. Along with taking care of your people, you will no longer line your pockets with drug money and I will help you do this by providing you and the media a list of Mexican leaders who are being bought by the Drug Lords. If you need more jobs, we will work with you on creating those jobs brought to you by other nations, but I will not transfer US jobs to your country”! The bottom line. President Trump needs to tell the Mexican government it needs to become responsible for its nation and its people or the US border will be visible from miles away in all directions. Is there a danger in this approach? Well, from the Mexican government standpoint, absolutely! Mexico’s leaders understand the price they will pay if the border wall is built. They completely understand that if people who have no future cannot leave Mexico, they will march on Mexico City and tear down the walls the Mexican elitist government hides behind. Yes. A wall on the US border will lead to a yet another revolution in Mexico. Their choice! As for the rest of the people walking out of Central and South America, the Mexican government needs to figure that one out. It’s their problem.

CHINA:

If there is one nation that will not panic with the election of Trump, it will be China.  A patient people controlled by an enduring government. When the time comes to sit down with the Trump Administration and talk about trade and the issue of imbalances, the Chinese will have a very detailed plan ready for execution. A people as methodical as the Chinese already have a “Trump Playbook” ready to bring to the table. It will be interesting to see this first round of talks. My bet is, this happens in the early stages of the first year of Trump’s Presidency. The Chinese know, the faster Trump can show progress on the topic, the faster they can move on to other issues such as the South China Seas and the real goal of the Dragon, Littoral lanes in the Pacific. This one will be complicated, but it will be well scripted on their part. It’s going to be fun to watch.

RUSSIA:

Well, here is one of the topics Trump took a real pounding on. To hear the Democrats tell the story, Trump and Putin and practically BFF! Most rational people understand there is not a lot of substance here, but then again, most voters in the US don’t care anyway. What will be the relationship between Putin and Trump? I can absolutely guarantee you one thing. It will be far….far better than what would have taken place between the Tsar and Hillary! Just two days ago, I was considering drafting the post for tonight based upon Hillary’s victory and how the Tsar was going to test her resolve as soon as he felt necessary. If she would have won the US election last night, tonight’s post would have been a story on the potential for the second Cuban Missile Crisis lie event for the US and Russia. Some people in the US government understand Putin based on the briefings they have been given. Some even take the time to study his actions. Some study the Tsar like the anomaly that he is. I am in that category and have been for years. I mention that fact for one simple reason, I am convinced Putin was prepared to push the Russian / US  / confrontation to the most dangerous level the world has witnessed since the Cuban Missile Crisis. Does the election of Trump mean this may not take place now? Yes, at least it has delayed the odds of it happening! Like the Chinese, the Tsar has developed a playbook for the contingency of Trump becoming the next US President. Like the rest of the world, Russia was most likely well down the road of executing the Clinton playbook when Trump supporters shocked the world! Late last night, the Trump book was placed back on the table in Moscow. How soon its first chapter is executed is hard to estimate, but it could be the Tsar may let Trump get his feet under him before the game begins. Will Trump call for a meeting of the two or will the Tsar? That is when we will know the game is underway. I will assure you this topic is a key discussion point from my perspective for months to come and I will enjoy every minute of it.

Now, as I have said in the past, this is not the complete list of issue that a Trump administration will have to deal with and over the next few days, I will readdress, as I did two months ago, the other less critical world topics President Trump will have to address. The past eight years of complete US foreign policy malaise has created challenges for Trump he is not even aware of yet. I will address some of those topics in the coming days.

Trump is in! Trump is different than anyone that has been in the White House in US history. What that means to the US, its Allies and the rest of the world, well, we will just have to wait to see! It’s not going to be boring. Trump is anything but boring! 

THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. IT’S THE FINAL COUNTDOWN, BUT WHO GET’S TO DECIDE THE FUTURE?

Well, if you are part of the social collective who dreams of a world without borders…without laws and without visas or passports, then tomorrow might just be your lucky day. You see, the concept was addressed in one of the thousands of emails stolen from Hillary Clinton. By the way, notice she never disclaimed she sent them, she just ranted that they were stolen. She should have done a better job of deleting some of those emails as well.

Do the American people get to select the next leader of their country? Here is a scary and actually a very dangerous thought. Many people in the US, on both sides, no longer believe the electoral process is “clean”.  If you believe the “fix” is in, then you must automatically question the results and thus the leader who is chosen. Can an emphasis enough how dangerous this perception is to the very survival of the US? Remember the age old saying you heard over and over again when you were a child. “United we stand, divided we fall”!

Has the US gone through turbulent times in the past? Absolutely. If anyone takes the time to ready American history, and sadly most do not, then they would see just how “turbulent” the past has been. If you are so inclined, look at the history behind the elections of John Adams or the story of Jackson. Now there is real drama and there have been multiple others.

Someone will win and someone will lose on the 8^th of November 2016. Many will be angry and many will be happy. The US will be as divided as it has been for years. So, will anything have really changed? I did find it interesting that the anti-Wall street candidate, Hillary, who was rumored to be about to win today, looks to be responsible for a nearly 400 point rise in the stock market! Strange, but then again, most of those who will support her don’t care!

So by around 7pm EST in the US, the next President of the US will be called. At that moment in time, others in the world will get to work on how they will respond to this event. Some plans have already been drawn up and some will be modified after the real candidate shows up in January. Yes, I said real because just about everyone in the US understands what is said during an election cycle is worthless once the votes have been cast.

If you are praying for Trump tonight, get ready for a rocky road with Europe, a road the Tsar will take full advantage of. Interesting enough, I anticipate this EU rocky road will not last long into 2017. You see, the next round of elections in Europe is going to usher in a new group of less than “left” leaders.

If you are praying for Hillary tonight, get ready for the Tsar. His plan is most assuredly ready to launch and he will put Hillary to the test before the end she realizes it. Do not underestimate how much he dislikes her.

Okay. The people of the US get to pick, but the rest of the world gets to “vote” on just how normal the next four years will or will not be. If you doubt what I am saying, just take a look at the wake up call Obama received in 2009.

By the way, the “Elect’ begins to get detailed Top Secret daily briefings soon after the election is announced. Someone make sure Hillary doesn’t have her IPhone on her! 

THE BATTLE FOR RAQQA? A THUMB IN THE EYE.... I AM CONFUSED! 

This may seem like a reoccurring question as of late, but let me ask it anyway.

Why now?

Why the US manipulated “announcement” of this operation? It’s too late to do Hillary any good. It’s not going to be completed, if it could be completed, before Obama leaves office. On the surface it seems to be a real thumb in the eye of the Ottomans and their leader is not known for being unresponsive to being thumbed in the eye. Timing is the centerpiece of politics and the timing of this operation is suspect at best.

US General Dunford’s trip to see his Turkish counterpart makes this issue even more interesting. Not only had the US stated the Turks would not be part of any operation to retake Raqqa, but it also appears the US and “others” didn’t bother informing the Turks, our NATO partners, the operation was about to start. For the record, US four Star Generals don’t travel, unannounced, to make small talk. They typically have one of two goals to accomplish on such a trip. They ether initiate the agreement to start a major planning operation, a preliminary event, or they show up as soon as an uncoordinated event is underway for the purpose of mending fences and or delivering an explanation of actions to their counterparts. In this case, I would be willing to bet the General’s mission was to minimize the damage to an already fragile relationship. It will not take the Egodan long to fashion his response to this announcement. He is a talk first, think later kind of guy.

Did I mention this “recapture mission” is somewhat misleading in it’s very explanation? Recapture for whom? Assad? The recognized government, like it or not, of Syria? So the US and “others” are recapturing territory inside a sovereign nation, but not doing so for the recognized government of that nation?  The recaptured land will be given to the same group that is fighting to overtake the seated government in Syria?

Never in a Vacuum.

In a conflict where intelligence is gathered at all levels by more organizations than you can count, does anyone think this event was planned, agreed to and prepped without just about everyone knowing it was going to take place, not to mention the months of news statements stating an operation like this one was going to take place? Who was surprised by the announcement? Other than the American people, you know, the ones paying for it, this operation was probably right up there with the rest of the poorly kept “secrets” dealing with Syria. If key players, the Tsar, the Sultan, Assad, Persians and the GCC, Sunni governments knew it was coming, does anyone think the Daesh didn’t know?

The Kurd conundrum.

Let’s assume, my favorite game if you have read my blog over the past few years, the fight for Raqqa ends with the Daesh being defeated? Who is going to turn the water back on? Who is going to rebuild the city? Assad? Well, it may be his country, but he is not invited to the event and the odds are he would not be invited to claim part of his country.

Are the supporters of this plan going to place the Kurds in charge of managing / governing Raqqa? What has been the driving issue for the Turks since the day the Syria Civil War started? Yep. The Kurds and Kurdish land near the Turkish border. What part of this plan seems to be a poor fit? Who gave it the stamp of approval and what is the daily cost, not to mention the threat of loss of lives, to the American people? Do they even care?

Deal.

It seems I just addressed this issue of “deals” a few days ago, but then again, dealing is the lifeblood of international relations.

Was this operation signed off on by the Russians? Is the relationship between the US and Russia stable enough to work out the kinks of yet another epiphany with the Kurds? Is the US thumbing the Tsar’s eye as well as the Turks? Who thought this plan all the way through? Somehow, I think I have once again given the US administration more credit than they deserve.

If no “deal” was struck before this event, at least not with the Turks or the Russian, then once again, I have to ask the initial question; why?

Just noise.

Would anyone be surprised if this action was just another example of the US announcing a “plan” and having no intent of it leading to anything? Are we looking again at words and a few million dollars in jet fuel and smart bombs and the next thing you know, someone in DC will be talking about how the US is taking the fight to Daesh!  

Smoke and mirrors! Hollow Carbs? More political grandstanding?

Should the Russians or the Turks or Iran or even Assad be upset by this event, or have they become accustomed to the US and its hairband, political stunts?   Will any of them take advantage of this event to once again make US foreign policy look like a rudderless ship.

Raqqa! Chapter four hundred and fifty-five in the saga of American Foreign policy lost at sea! An eight year journey that is about to have a new Captain at the helm!

Raqqa; I’m still confused!

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37889133

THE IRANIAN REVOLUTIONARY GUARD’S CORP COMING TO THE US AND EUROPE? 

Just when I thought I might follow up for a third night on the issue of the Turks and Iraq, this story of the IRGC forces “coming to the US and Europe soon” ends up on the front page of a major US news network. Ok, I’ll bite. Let’s take a look at this rather bazar statement?

Salar Abnoush? Who is he you might ask? Well, he’s a low level flunky to start with. So, why would he be tasked with sending such a critical message to the US and Europe? Was he just shooting his mouth off in a typical, “look at me” moment? It could be, but that would be a dangerous concept in a country where unofficial statements can be your last statement!  Should we assume he was “cleared” to make this comment? Most likely! Once we get past that decision point, the next question becomes the more important topic.

Why and why now and why him of all people?

Okay. Why?

Why would the Iranian leadership make such a bold and let’s face it, stupid comment one week before the US Presidential election? If the Persians were looking for reaction, what reaction where they looking for? What was the desired result of the comment? Could it be the intended audience was not the political leadership of the US and Europe? Perhaps the saber raddling was for internal reasons? It would not be the first time the Iranian leadership took that approach. Could it be they really didn’t anticipate the statement would make it to the Western press, or perhaps they just didn’t care? If this was once again an “internal” issue and Iranian leadership is just so confident that the US and Europe will not overreact to the statement, then it’s not really reckless. Is Iran that confident the US and Europe is so lethargic towards Iran that they will not even recognize the event? Now, that is a real possibility, but let’s continue to dig a little further.

Why now?

Rumors of the ongoing power struggle inside Iran between the so called “moderates” and the “hardliners”, two titles I’ve addressed in the past, are out there for everyone to read about. Was this just a shot by the “hardliners” to show their resolve for the “revolution”? Again, it would fit the mold of them believing the US and Europe will simply look the other way. In the eyes of aggressive Tyrants, Passive Liberals are like Sheep simply hoping the Wolves will not come tonight.  Ignore the statement and it will go away! A mindset that is defended by the viewpoint of, “we don’t want to overreact”.

On the other hand, is Iran actually sending a message to the US and Europe, but doing so with some midlevel ladder climber who is more than willing to have his fifteen minutes of fame. If it goes bad, and someone actually gets upset with the statement, doubtful, then getting on the phone and saying, “we had a wannabe step out of line…..we will deal with him”, becomes an easy exit. Remember, the US and Europe want to be friends with Iran so bad they can taste it. “It was a mistake”, is the perfect way to allow the progressive liberals of the US and Europe show their hardliners, it was all simply an accident, stop saber raddling.

Woops! None of this really answers the “why now”! Sorry, I got sidetracked. The part of the “why now” that would have anyone who watches the region confused goes back to the issue of the pending US election. Who is the real “Hawk”? Who is the one that seems to pose the biggest threat to Iranian actions in the region? Hillary! The same Hillary that is, in the eyes of the Persians, friends with Saudi! How would making a “we are coming to the US and Europe” threat impact Hillary Clinton’s campaign? What is the point? Are the Iranians anticipating the relationship with a President Clinton to be a step backwards from the Obama administration? If so, how does this aggressive statement move the cause for Iran forward? I don’t believe it does and that is why I’m leaning away from the idea that event was designed to influence the US elections. Does the statement do any good for Donald Trump? Do the Iranians see a better day over the horizon with Trump? I don’t think so. So, does this event impact the Trump campaign? We will see if his people even mention it.  So, in the world of “why now”, the answer may very well be, “why not”?

Why Salar?

I think we have hit on the two possibilities on this topic. He was ether trying to make a name for himself, something many of the military leaders in Iran have attempted in the past, or he was the message boy for a bigger game. A game that may not be about the US and Europe at all.

Okay; here is my closing thoughts on this event.  The internal power plays taking place inside Iran right now are far more controversial than the Western media contemplates. The ability for the Iranian Hawks to make outrageous statements and have the confidence the US and Europe will do nothing about it, well, that is where I would place my bet.

Here is the sad part of this story. Does anyone in the US or Europe understand how unintimidated the Iranian leadership is with the current US and European governments? Can you imagine if Salar would have tossed into his statement, “and in Russia as well”?  By the time the Iranian Hawks would have been able to arrange for him to be a “causality” in the Syrian conflict, the Tsar would be killing the next Iranian General in Syria. How many Iranian Generals have died in Syria and who got to them? I bet the Iranians know!

Respect. When it comes to that word the Tsar is only Aretha Franklin the Iranians know.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/11/02/iran-claims-its-sending-elite-fighters-to-infiltrate-us-europe.html

THE TSAR AND THE SULTAN. HAVE THEY REALLY STRUCK A “DEAL” ON SYRIA?

My last post addressed the issue of the Turks and the potential for increased confrontation with Iraq.  One of the primary questions that needed to be answered was, did the Sultan and the Tsar make a “deal” on the issue of Turkey’s interest in Syria and Iraq? Well, according to the attached story, from one of the Sultan’s media outlets, some level of a “deal” has been at least announced by Turkey. A deal that doesn’t address Iraq, but it does address the more immediate issue to the Turks, Syria and the Kurds.

Long ago, I took the stance that the Tsar would use the Kurds, like the West has done, as a pawn in his master plan for the Middle East. Promises to the Kurds are like any promises from any politician, if you count on them, you are a fool!

As I was reading this bit of Ottoman propaganda, I couldn’t help but notice I had not heard a thing from the Tsar’s media machine. If some level of petitioning of Northern Syria was actually being agreed upon, where was the Russian version of the story? It wouldn’t be the first time the Sultan made his own headlines, to the astonishment of those were supposedly part of the discussion. Did the Tsar quietly agree to a future configuration of Syria and yet decide not to make a spectacle of the issue? Not like him. Shoving his achievements in the faces of the West is much more his style. So, what is taking place here and who really is involved in the event?

Russia ability to determine the future of Syria is believable, even when you factor in the Persian influence. Yes, Iran desires to control the outcome of events in Syria and a major victory in the Presidential joke, I mean election in Lebanon, has to be factored into the Iranian formulary for Syria. What good is a gain in Lebanon if the Persians are cut off from direct support through Syria? Is it in Russia’s best interest to let the Iranians have their way in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq? No! Would the Tsar make some level of a “deal” with the Sultan and not let the Persians have a vote? Absolutely. How often have I addressed the issue of the uneasy alliance between the Iranians and the Russians? If it was not for the pathetic foreign policy of the US and the rest of the West, the relationship between Iran and the Russians could be far weaker than it already is. Never forget, there is no love between the Persians and the Russians. As I’ve said in the past, in the eyes of the Russians, Persians are good people….as long as they do exactly as they are told! So, has the Sultan and the Tsar come up with a plan for Northern Syria that satisfies the Sultan’s fears over the Kurd issue? Even if this story is true, and I doubt that it is, the Sultan has a two front problem and the other front is one the Tsar has much less influence over, at least for now!

Iraq:

The same Sultan news mouthpiece that put out the story about this breakthrough agreement on Syria also posted a story on the continuing buildup of Turkish forces along the Iraqi border. As a reminder, the Sultan’s problem with the Kurds is the simple fact that they occupy land not just in Syria, but in Iraq as well. Yes, the Syrian Kurd issue is a higher priority than the Iraqi issue, but don’t believe the Iraqi issue is not vital to the Sultan’s fears. This is where it gets much more difficult for the Sultan. In the Syrian issue, he has someone he can “deal” with, the Tsar. In Iraq, he has nobody. His feeble attempts to work with the Persians on the Kurdish issue have been not only been indicative of Armature Hour, not to mention his hot headedness,  but the Persians have won the Public Relations war on the issue of the two countries trying to negotiate a position. In short, the Sultan is has gotten nowhere on the Iraqi issue. As I said two nights ago, it’s much safer to pick a fight with the Iraqi leadership than to accuse the Persians of meddling in the affairs of Turkey. So, to the Sultan, the answer becomes, flex your muscles! The fact that the Turks already have military forces on the ground in Iraq doesn’t sit well with the Iraqi government not to mention the Iranians and to be placing additional forces on the Iraqi border is probably not going to get ether the Iraqi or Iranian governments to come to the table.  Can this all end up with a larger Turkish forces entering Iraq? If you have been listening to the conversation over the past two weeks between the Sultan and the Iraqi government, it’s easy to see why panic is not far removed from the conversation. 

Here is my closing question for this conversation. If the case of Syria, it may be possible the Tsar and the Sultan have come to some level of a “deal”, it’s been speculated this was taking place for over a year. The issues go far deeper than Syria for the Tsar and the Sultan. Europe is the key to the conversation between the two of them. So, where is the Tsar on the question of the Sultans’ actions with Iraq?   How does the Tsar manipulate the potential conflict? Or……..Does he let it take place? What are the ramifications of a NATO member openly defying the West on the issue of Iraq? Oh ya…that’s right…it’s already happening!

After the US Presidential elections are finally over next week, will it be time to pay attention to what is taking place in the rest of the world?  Will ether Donald Trump of Hillary Clinton be prepared to wade into the quagmire the last eight years of US foreign policy has created? Woops… Hillary was a key part of that quagmire!!! Great!  

http://www.worldbulletin.net/headlines/179421/turkey-russia-sign-landmark-agreement-on-syria