THE TSAR AND THE SULTAN. HAVE THEY REALLY STRUCK A “DEAL” ON SYRIA?

My last post addressed the issue of the Turks and the potential for increased confrontation with Iraq.  One of the primary questions that needed to be answered was, did the Sultan and the Tsar make a “deal” on the issue of Turkey’s interest in Syria and Iraq? Well, according to the attached story, from one of the Sultan’s media outlets, some level of a “deal” has been at least announced by Turkey. A deal that doesn’t address Iraq, but it does address the more immediate issue to the Turks, Syria and the Kurds.

Long ago, I took the stance that the Tsar would use the Kurds, like the West has done, as a pawn in his master plan for the Middle East. Promises to the Kurds are like any promises from any politician, if you count on them, you are a fool!

As I was reading this bit of Ottoman propaganda, I couldn’t help but notice I had not heard a thing from the Tsar’s media machine. If some level of petitioning of Northern Syria was actually being agreed upon, where was the Russian version of the story? It wouldn’t be the first time the Sultan made his own headlines, to the astonishment of those were supposedly part of the discussion. Did the Tsar quietly agree to a future configuration of Syria and yet decide not to make a spectacle of the issue? Not like him. Shoving his achievements in the faces of the West is much more his style. So, what is taking place here and who really is involved in the event?

Russia ability to determine the future of Syria is believable, even when you factor in the Persian influence. Yes, Iran desires to control the outcome of events in Syria and a major victory in the Presidential joke, I mean election in Lebanon, has to be factored into the Iranian formulary for Syria. What good is a gain in Lebanon if the Persians are cut off from direct support through Syria? Is it in Russia’s best interest to let the Iranians have their way in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq? No! Would the Tsar make some level of a “deal” with the Sultan and not let the Persians have a vote? Absolutely. How often have I addressed the issue of the uneasy alliance between the Iranians and the Russians? If it was not for the pathetic foreign policy of the US and the rest of the West, the relationship between Iran and the Russians could be far weaker than it already is. Never forget, there is no love between the Persians and the Russians. As I’ve said in the past, in the eyes of the Russians, Persians are good people….as long as they do exactly as they are told! So, has the Sultan and the Tsar come up with a plan for Northern Syria that satisfies the Sultan’s fears over the Kurd issue? Even if this story is true, and I doubt that it is, the Sultan has a two front problem and the other front is one the Tsar has much less influence over, at least for now!

Iraq:

The same Sultan news mouthpiece that put out the story about this breakthrough agreement on Syria also posted a story on the continuing buildup of Turkish forces along the Iraqi border. As a reminder, the Sultan’s problem with the Kurds is the simple fact that they occupy land not just in Syria, but in Iraq as well. Yes, the Syrian Kurd issue is a higher priority than the Iraqi issue, but don’t believe the Iraqi issue is not vital to the Sultan’s fears. This is where it gets much more difficult for the Sultan. In the Syrian issue, he has someone he can “deal” with, the Tsar. In Iraq, he has nobody. His feeble attempts to work with the Persians on the Kurdish issue have been not only been indicative of Armature Hour, not to mention his hot headedness,  but the Persians have won the Public Relations war on the issue of the two countries trying to negotiate a position. In short, the Sultan is has gotten nowhere on the Iraqi issue. As I said two nights ago, it’s much safer to pick a fight with the Iraqi leadership than to accuse the Persians of meddling in the affairs of Turkey. So, to the Sultan, the answer becomes, flex your muscles! The fact that the Turks already have military forces on the ground in Iraq doesn’t sit well with the Iraqi government not to mention the Iranians and to be placing additional forces on the Iraqi border is probably not going to get ether the Iraqi or Iranian governments to come to the table.  Can this all end up with a larger Turkish forces entering Iraq? If you have been listening to the conversation over the past two weeks between the Sultan and the Iraqi government, it’s easy to see why panic is not far removed from the conversation. 

Here is my closing question for this conversation. If the case of Syria, it may be possible the Tsar and the Sultan have come to some level of a “deal”, it’s been speculated this was taking place for over a year. The issues go far deeper than Syria for the Tsar and the Sultan. Europe is the key to the conversation between the two of them. So, where is the Tsar on the question of the Sultans’ actions with Iraq?   How does the Tsar manipulate the potential conflict? Or……..Does he let it take place? What are the ramifications of a NATO member openly defying the West on the issue of Iraq? Oh ya…that’s right…it’s already happening!

After the US Presidential elections are finally over next week, will it be time to pay attention to what is taking place in the rest of the world?  Will ether Donald Trump of Hillary Clinton be prepared to wade into the quagmire the last eight years of US foreign policy has created? Woops… Hillary was a key part of that quagmire!!! Great!  

http://www.worldbulletin.net/headlines/179421/turkey-russia-sign-landmark-agreement-on-syria