Wednesday, November 2, 2016



THE IRANIAN REVOLUTIONARY GUARD’S CORP COMING TO THE US AND EUROPE? 

Just when I thought I might follow up for a third night on the issue of the Turks and Iraq, this story of the IRGC forces “coming to the US and Europe soon” ends up on the front page of a major US news network. Ok, I’ll bite. Let’s take a look at this rather bazar statement?
Salar Abnoush? Who is he you might ask? Well, he’s a low level flunky to start with. So, why would he be tasked with sending such a critical message to the US and Europe? Was he just shooting his mouth off in a typical, “look at me” moment? It could be, but that would be a dangerous concept in a country where unofficial statements can be your last statement!  Should we assume he was “cleared” to make this comment? Most likely! Once we get past that decision point, the next question becomes the more important topic.
Why and why now and why him of all people?
Okay. Why?
Why would the Iranian leadership make such a bold and let’s face it, stupid comment one week before the US Presidential election? If the Persians were looking for reaction, what reaction where they looking for? What was the desired result of the comment? Could it be the intended audience was not the political leadership of the US and Europe? Perhaps the saber raddling was for internal reasons? It would not be the first time the Iranian leadership took that approach. Could it be they really didn’t anticipate the statement would make it to the Western press, or perhaps they just didn’t care? If this was once again an “internal” issue and Iranian leadership is just so confident that the US and Europe will not overreact to the statement, then it’s not really reckless. Is Iran that confident the US and Europe is so lethargic towards Iran that they will not even recognize the event? Now, that is a real possibility, but let’s continue to dig a little further.
Why now?
Rumors of the ongoing power struggle inside Iran between the so called “moderates” and the “hardliners”, two titles I’ve addressed in the past, are out there for everyone to read about. Was this just a shot by the “hardliners” to show their resolve for the “revolution”? Again, it would fit the mold of them believing the US and Europe will simply look the other way. In the eyes of aggressive Tyrants, Passive Liberals are like Sheep simply hoping the Wolves will not come tonight.  Ignore the statement and it will go away! A mindset that is defended by the viewpoint of, “we don’t want to overreact”.
On the other hand, is Iran actually sending a message to the US and Europe, but doing so with some midlevel ladder climber who is more than willing to have his fifteen minutes of fame. If it goes bad, and someone actually gets upset with the statement, doubtful, then getting on the phone and saying, “we had a wannabe step out of line…..we will deal with him”, becomes an easy exit. Remember, the US and Europe want to be friends with Iran so bad they can taste it. “It was a mistake”, is the perfect way to allow the progressive liberals of the US and Europe show their hardliners, it was all simply an accident, stop saber raddling.
Woops! None of this really answers the “why now”! Sorry, I got sidetracked. The part of the “why now” that would have anyone who watches the region confused goes back to the issue of the pending US election. Who is the real “Hawk”? Who is the one that seems to pose the biggest threat to Iranian actions in the region? Hillary! The same Hillary that is, in the eyes of the Persians, friends with Saudi! How would making a “we are coming to the US and Europe” threat impact Hillary Clinton’s campaign? What is the point? Are the Iranians anticipating the relationship with a President Clinton to be a step backwards from the Obama administration? If so, how does this aggressive statement move the cause for Iran forward? I don’t believe it does and that is why I’m leaning away from the idea that event was designed to influence the US elections. Does the statement do any good for Donald Trump? Do the Iranians see a better day over the horizon with Trump? I don’t think so. So, does this event impact the Trump campaign? We will see if his people even mention it.  So, in the world of “why now”, the answer may very well be, “why not”?
Why Salar?
I think we have hit on the two possibilities on this topic. He was ether trying to make a name for himself, something many of the military leaders in Iran have attempted in the past, or he was the message boy for a bigger game. A game that may not be about the US and Europe at all.
Okay; here is my closing thoughts on this event.  The internal power plays taking place inside Iran right now are far more controversial than the Western media contemplates. The ability for the Iranian Hawks to make outrageous statements and have the confidence the US and Europe will do nothing about it, well, that is where I would place my bet.
Here is the sad part of this story. Does anyone in the US or Europe understand how unintimidated the Iranian leadership is with the current US and European governments? Can you imagine if Salar would have tossed into his statement, “and in Russia as well”?  By the time the Iranian Hawks would have been able to arrange for him to be a “causality” in the Syrian conflict, the Tsar would be killing the next Iranian General in Syria. How many Iranian Generals have died in Syria and who got to them? I bet the Iranians know!
Respect. When it comes to that word the Tsar is only Aretha Franklin the Iranians know.

No comments:

Post a Comment