HEZBOLLAH vs. HAMAS??? IT'S ALREADY UNDERWAY.

Rumors today, and admittedly they are just that 'rumors', that Hezbollah has ordered Hamas out of Lebanon are just the kind of acts that can ignite an even larger fire.

               

I don't put any stock into this statement being true, but perhaps indirectly.

Even if this statement is not factual, the issue is undeniable.

I've said it before and I will say it again.

Hezbollah has made a catastrophic mistake with it's actions in Syria.

Let me give you another perfect example of why this is true.

When the killings started in Syria and the Shia were more than willing to watch Sunni families leave Syria into Lebanon, where did they think they would go?

Well, the answer is a large portion of them entered the Palestinian refugee camps.

So, where did the Nasra "trainers / organizers / show up?

Yep.... the camps...

And what was the purpose of training the willing in these camps?

Yep... to fight in Syria oh and by the way... they are ready to now fight in Lebanon on Hezbollah ground...

Yes.. the conflict in Syria provided a militia environment for the Sunni groups to leverage and that is exactly what they are going to do.

When I talked of the issue of opening "second fronts"  Lebanon and Iraq, Hezbollah must have completely forgotten who was filling the camps in Lebanon.

Ok.........who has a great deal of influence in these camps?

Yep... Hamas!!

So, Is Hezbollah desperate to get Hamas out of the mix in Lebanon?

Yep!!!

Hezbollah has allowed their enemy to build a force right next-door to their own base and that is an issue that will not go over well with their supporters.

Imagine a Hezbollah supporting Mother being told her daughters and small children are going to go virtually unprotected because their husbands and Son are off fighting the Persian battle in Syria.

Good luck selling that one for any period of time.

Oh... and good luck trying to disengage Hezbollah forces to react to the pending hit and run attacks in the home front.

Hold on... Dig in..... fall back if needed... give ground at a high price to the enemy!!!!

That is the battle plan for the Sunni fighters in Syria right now.

At the same time, make the home front for Hezbollah unlivable.

Force Hezbollah to abandon Assad and secure the very homes they come from.

It's going to be bloody and it will work!!!

Then the most important question of all comes into play.

What do the Persians do about it?

Oh.. and for those of you who say the Lebanese military will deal with the Sunni groups coming out of the camps.......please..... get a better answer than that!!!

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/hezbollah-vs-hamas

LEBANON AND IRAQ ... STRIKES AND COUNTER STRIKES.

In attempt to keep thing simple today, lets review what has taken place in the past two days and more importantly why.

There is only one way to explain the rockets fired from Lebanon into Israel.

Hezbollah!!

Hezbollah knows all too well that attacks into their "base" in Lebanon are attempt to divide their efforts.

The Hezbollah response was predictable; fire into Israel from Lebanon.

A two part objective was attempted.

A.   Provoke Israel into inflicting pain into Lebanon, thus taking the pressure off of Hezbollah's increasing actions in Syria.

B.  Show their "base" they still have a core value of "resisting" the Zionist.

Did ether objective reach any level of success?

It depends on who the target audience was!

If Hezbollah was sending a "message" to their base, then they most likely achieved some level of success.

If the audience was the Sunni of Lebanon, then the "treat" was more than worrisome.

If the intended audience was the IDF and Israeli political leadership, then Hezbollah wasted their time and rockets.

IRAQ:

Again, the issue continues to be the Sunni Attempt  to divert Shia support units from Iraq from supporting Syrian Operations.

It's difficult to be a local militia fighter from Iraq in Syria and continue to hear of attacks back in your hometown in Iraq.

Simple put; both sides continue the attempts to pull resources away from the "enemy"!

The real danger continues to be the reckless repercussions for Lebanon as both  sides underestimate the danger of spiraling violence.

If  Lebanon is to buckle under the pressure of sectarian violence, than both Sunni and Shia will have issues to deal with that nether fully comprehends.

Reckless 'tit for tats" and counter actions outside of Syria make the possibility of a larger scale event ever more likely.

Who's trying to stop these counter attacks form taking place?

Regardless of the answer, the real problem is those who are trying are mostly powerless to have any true impact.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Local-News/2013/May-27/218445-resistance-brigades-member-assir-supporters-clash-in-sidon.ashx#axzz2UWQsPJBZ

HEZBOLLAH .. THE ONLY WAY OUT IS ALL THE WAY IN!!!

 Sometimes the only way out of something is to ride it all the way through!!

For the past two days I have taken the position that Hezbollah is now officially stuck in the Syrian quicksand and has absolutely no "Exit Plan".

No one seem to understand this better than Mr. Nasrallah!

He understands it so well that he gave the speech today about victory for Assad and how Hezbollah would insure it's arrival.

What made him do this?

Did the Persians give him the " you are all the way in speech / orders?

Perhaps.

What is more likely the answer is that reality has set in.

Nasrallah knows his forces have no chance of disengagement and when your whole life is driven by blinding testosterone, well, the end result is predictable.

But, something else in his speech virtually floored me today.

Not only did Nasrallah come to the realization he and his movement is virtually trapped in the Sectarian Civil War, but he made the totally insane prediction that Assad was all but guaranteed victory given Hezbollah's commitment.

If any of his actions in this conflict are fatal to his movement, then this one is at the top of the list.

Is Hezbollah all the way in?

Absolutely!

Could this prove to be Hezbollah's most critical error in their history?

Yes!

I know the argument can be made they had, in some opinions, little choice given the strength of the Sunni movement, but full commitment has a tremendous risk... the risk of total failure.

Let me put this another way.

The GCC and Israel, from a strategic standpoint, could not have been happier with Nasrallah's speech.

If Hezbollah's involvement was the purpose of the "trap", then the objective has been achieved.

But, as I hinted to last night, everyone needs to be extremely worried as to what level of commitment Hezbollah has now reached.

Let me give you an example!

In Lebanon today, this speech by Nasrallah was seen as a nearly doomsday snapshot!

Simply put, if Hezbollah now realizes they have no way out of the Syrian / Secterian Civil War, then the amount of pain for everyone involved could be substantial.

Was a trap set for Hezbollah with the objective of reducing or even nutralizing their capabilities prior to a larger regional conflict?

Perhaps!

But the price of that "trap" could prove to be just as costly as the event the trap was intended to avoid.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/May-25/218352-hezbollah-says-fighting-in-syria-opposes-importing-crisis-to-lebanon.ashx#axzz2UMEtu2QK

HAS ISRAEL AND THE GCC " SPRUNG THE TRAP ON HEZBOLLAH?

Yesterday I mentioned the complexities of what Hezbollah could now be facing with it's actions in Syria.

Lets take that conversation in another direction and look into how this might have come about.

I'm very confident Hezbollah was more than willing to seek out targets, Sunni targets, inside of Syria given the status of Assad's / Shai / members involved in the conflict.

I am very confident that young, unemployed boys and men most likely fount it more than exciting to return the violence they so love to talk about.

I'm less confident Hezbollah leadership was as enthusiastic with getting involved inside of Syria, but the Puppet Master Persians demanded it.

Remember, to the Puppet Master's of Hezbollah, this is all about fulfilling the Persian dreams for the region, not those dirty little Arabs who will all work for their Persian Masters someday.

Now, in the past I have mentioned how "others" namely the GCC and the Israelis would be more than willing to see Sunni Muslim Brotherhood dreams clash with Shia / Persian visions of dominance.

So, would it have been possible for the two of them, the GCC and the Israelis to draw Hezbollah into the fray at the behest of the Persians...... with the Russian waiting to sell all the new arms to the defeated as soon as it was over... remember.. to the Tsar... there is money to be made here.

Let me paint of picture of what may have just happened.

Lets assume the GCC new that as Assad was about to fall, the Persians would do what ever it took to keep him in power.

Lets assume that as the Iranian special ops leaders reported back to Tehran that the battle for Damascus was about to be lost, the Tehranian panic button was struck.

Lets assume that Israel antagonized Hezbollah by striking the very toys they thought they were about to inherit.

Finally; lets assume both the GCC and the Israelis fully realized Hezbollah has no "Exit Strategy" for getting out of the conflict in Syria.

As of today, Hezbollah is bleeding on a two front war with their "base" in Lebanon under serious danger of assault and their death count in Syria growing by the hour.

For every Hezbollah member that is killed on the battlefield of Syria, Sunni killing Shia in the eyes of Israel, that is one less fighter ready to strike anywhere else.

For the GCC, the Arab Spring, the act that was set to bring down the monarchies of the Gulf, has now been turned into a Sectarian Civil War that has the Persians to blame!!!

In my opinion...... a brilliant plot, if it was one, that has the GCC and the IDF cheering for both sides in Syria.

Here is the danger..

If I can figure this out... what about the Persians???? What about the Tsar????

Does the Tsar want to reestablish the Russian flag in the Middle East or does he just plan on making money off of rebuilding the defeated?

Everything about the Middle East is a gamble, but this idea.... well... we shall see!!!

Is Hezbollah stuck in the flypaper of Syria???

Yep..

I believe they are....

So what does their Puppet Master do???

THE BATTLE FOR QUSAYR... HEZBOLLAH REALITY CHECK!!!

The author of this story brings up several valid issues that are worthy of further, tactical analysis.

Before we get to the issue of Hezbollah's concerns, lets take a quick look at  the so called "malitias" the Iranians have pushed into Syria.

These sectarian militias have one goal and one goal only, to act as cannon fodder in the classical sense of warfare.

Simply put, they are not expected to be tactically proficient or even combat effective.

They were put into the fight to allow the more skilled Syrian and Hezbollah units to maneuver once the Cannon Fodder units were tossed into the fight.

Made up of young men with nothing else to do with their lives and no real future, the thrill of combat and a small paycheck landed them in an operation will they will be chopped up, accused of War Crimes, given most of them are common criminals for hire, and left on the battle field if needed by Assad or Hezbollah if needed.

Ok, lets move on to the real issue with the fighting in Qusayr?

What if......what if... Hezbollah finds itself being fought to a standstill?

What if Hezbollah units have to pull back after taking ground they died for?

How do they sell that to a "base" that is having a hard time accepting their actions even as they seem to be doing well?

How much of their force are they truly willing to commit to the fight in Syria?

What do they leave to the rear to defend the "Base" if needed and it appears that threat is growing with every hour that passes.

If Iran orders them " all the way in", will they do it?

How much of their fighting ability are they willing to get bogged down in Syria as Israel gladly watches on with a smile?

Here is the classic issue Hezbollah has never historically had to account for.

What is the "Exit Plan"?

Exit planning....something the truly professional militaries struggle with.

How long does Hezbollah's leadership "sell" the death toll to it's "base"?

If Qusayr falls, can Assad's forces hold it without Hezbollah?

Oh.... you see.....it's so easy to get into a fight.... but the art of getting out.....well ... that is something Hezbollah has little knowledge of.

If Hezbollah is now officially caught in a "grind" inside Syria, who does it really benefit?

I bet we all know that answer!!!

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/hezbollah-slips-in-qusayr

QUSAYR.. IRAQ  AND LEBANON..WHAT DO THEY HAVE IN COMMON?

Ok, let's go back to the concept of each side in the Syrian conflict attempting to open "Second Fronts" on the opponent.

As we have talked about before, it's obvious the injection of Hezbollah has put new life into the Assad camp.

It is also more than obvious the Persians have decided, after being given the go ahead by the Tsar, up the support tempo to Assad.

We have also gone over the concept of how the Sunni have made the conscious decision to put pressure on the Hezbollah "home front" in Lebanon; thus... a Second Front concept.

It also has become abundantly clear the Sunni game plan for Iraq has been activated knowing full well the aggravation and distraction this will create for the Persians and the Iraqi support to Assad.

Yep; a Third front concept is underway!!!

So, with the score two to one in favor of the Sunni team, the issue of Qusayr comes to life.

What better way to pull the Sunni forces out of the city limits of Damascus then to attack to the rear!!!!

Yes, some of the issue of Qusayr is the issue of cutting off supply lines from Lebanon, but Qusary has absolutely nothing to do with support flowing from Turkey and everyone knows it.

Yes, Homs becomes and issue now, but the concept of the Persian lead forces.. Yes I said Persian lead forces.. taking Homs is a bridge too far even for Hezbollah and the Iranian militia support teams, at least right now.

Now, if we are going to get into the Second Front.... Third Front concept discussion, then why not look at what is taking place in the Golan?

Is Assad or his Persian Bosses trying to entice Israel into a conflict in the Golan?

I don't think so.

It's the threat and intermittent aggravation from that area that the Persians and Assad hope will keep Israel occupied.

A poor plan I might add.

And finally, lets relook at what is taking place in Lebanon in the past few days and what may be changing.

Tripoli is once again a hotbed for conflict and I'm not sold on the fact that the Second Front concept took into consideration what might happen in Lebanon.

It's one thing to think you can distract your enemy with attacks to their base, but without carefully thought out considerations for events ether side may not be able to control, a Second Front "plan" may just turn into a full blown crisis.

Ok, here is the problem with the whole region at this moment in time  and it's getting more dangerous by the hour.

When major events are planned by minor, individual thinkers, insert Clannish mentality here, even the "Big" players may not be able to control what happens.

There is a mad rush to a proposed "peace conference" right now and we have to wonder what has put the panic into the "big players"?

Perhaps they know things are about to spin out of control and they all sound like Chicken Little. AGAIN!!

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/05/201352071548212347.html

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/lebanonnews/tripoli-clashes-heat-up

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/reportsfeatures/qusayr-resisting-all-out-attack

HEZBOLLAH JOINT ASSAULT ON QUSYR:

So, let me guess, the Tsar and the Persians are going to say, "there is no indication Hezbollah is involved in the fighting for Qusayr"!!!

It's often absolutely amazing when one group makes such an outrageous statement, one almost has to wonder how they can do so with a straight face.

In the early stages of Iran's involvement, and trust me there are Iranians involved in the attacks on Qusayr as well, the canned speech use to revolve around, "they were on a religious pilgrimage when they were killed"..

Yep, that storyline was almost as pathetic as the one I am sure they will use today over actions in Qusayr.

So, let me pose a question to the Tsar and the Persians.

Do they truly believe the GCC members, Turkey and the West will accept this shameful, "we see no evidence"?????

Here is an even more disturbing angle on the topic.

What on earth is the Hezbollah puppet government in Lebanon going to say?

As I have said for the past several days, it's amazing to me the path the Tsar and the Persians are taking towards this conflict.

Weapons movements that are outrageous..... open support in Syria by "outsiders" while the Tsar and his Puppet nation in Iran warn that everyone should stay out of the fight and the future of Assad is up to the Syrian people.

What a complete joke and I'm betting its a joke that is going to backfire with disastrous results.

If I was in a Hezbollah held center in Lebanon... I would work real hard to keep my family away from parked cars starting right now!!!

BRINKMANSHIP... BUT ON WHOSE PART AND AGAIN....WHY????

Last week I posed the question why would Iran push weapons to Hezbollah they know will cause Israel to react?

I've  have a different spin on the same question?

Why would the Tsar do the same thing?

S-300 and Yakhont systems are both clearly seen as at another set of Red Lines for Israel and they have all but made that point on several occasions.

So, again, the questions of why and why now?

It's been said time and time again, but perhaps we are simply not grasping the point.

Perhaps what is taking place in the Middle East is no longer about just the Middle East!

Why did we ever believe the concept of regional "Proxy" wars between World Powers would never become an issue again?

What made us think those days were, "cold war" days and thus they were history?

Is it just a matter of principle with the Tsar?

Did he promise Assad these systems and he is hell bent to keep his word?

Are the Iranians on-board with this plan or are they just puppets to the Master?

However you may look at this larger question, one thing stands firm in the world of reality vs political Brinkmanship; once military mistakes become military actions, the time to prevent conflict disappears.

Israel's warnings this week were given for a reason.

The rumor that Assad's forces will not simply sit back if Israel strikes again is most likely more than just a rumor.

I'm afraid before we can get a grasp on "why" we may be dealing with "how bad"!!!

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/May-18/217530-brinkmanship-in-syria-boosts-risk-of-regional-war-with-israel.ashx#axzz2TfMOSURt

A COMPLICATED AND PERPLEXING PENDING BATTLEFIELD!!

Ok, so back to the discussion of a pending conflict between Hezbollah and Nusra!

As has been mentioned before, the fact this conflict is predicted to take place should come as no surprise.

Assad's gains, temporary in my opinion, over the past few weeks are attributed to the increased support of Hezbollah and the other "units" provided and supported by Iran.

The concept of opening a Second Front on the Syrian Rebels and the Syrian Rebels intern contemplating opening a Second Front for Hezbollah in Lebanon makes the process of keeping the scorecard for this event difficult at best.

Now, given this event is growing closer and closer with each passing day, it's important to revisit where Israel and Turkey and Jordan and the West fit into this pending change / escalation of events.

But, before we do that, lets refresh the most important aspect of this event, Iran's vision of where it is going and how that "vision" fits in with it's silent, well somewhat silent, partner.....the Tsar!!!

As I have said time and time again, from the Tsar's viewpoint, the world is good.

The world oil markets is well above the acceptable bottom-line and the Tsar is all about making money for money fuels the rebirth of the Russian Empire.

Now, remember, the trick is not letting this "event" in the Middle East get too out of hand.

Making money is good......regional war...well... they may be a bad thing in the long run!!!

A world market that is depressed based upon a devastating regional war equates in to crashing oil prices and that is a bad thing for the Tsar.

So, conflict .... Tsar says good.....

Open Regional War....Tsar probably says.."Bad thing"!!!

The Tsar's second goal and trust me, it's an important one to him... prestige!!!

Showing the world the West cannot make decisions on global issues without Russian inputs, well that is a vital task for the Tsar.

Just about the only thing not allowed to get in the way of the ego of the Tsar is the price of oil.... remember... that is goal number one at all times!!!

Ok, so the Tsar wants the world to know you cannot deal with the Middle East without dealing with him and his crazy little Persian puppets.... Puppets that don't like the Tsar by the way!!! Nothing worse than loathing you Boss!!!

Iran knows their plans for the region may not match the plans of the Tsar, but they must be very careful how they deal with this dilemma.

Perhaps the Persians will betray the Tsar, but that is a plan for a latter date!!!

One "Infidel" country at a time!!!

Both the Tsar and the Persians have a real problem, this dangerous Civil War between the Sunni and the Shia!!!!

To the Persians, the issue is far more dangerous and hence they are more likely to be willing to take drastic actions to combat this religious civil war.

On top of that, this maddening thing called Social Media has the Iranians worried sick about their next round of fixed elections, and that is something their Master could care  less about!!!

Ok, the picture should be clearing up by now.

The Puppets and the Master have different "goals" and concerns and that is an inherent weakness to their alliance; a fact that doesn't go unnoticed by the Arabs and the Israelis and oh by the way.... the Ottoman's as well!!!

The Ottoman's, the competition to the Tsar and the Arabs for the Oil market in the region.

Now, let's get back to the issue at hand.

The major players know the battlefield is filled with these crazy little groups of fanatical thugs, but the "thugs" work for several Masters.... namely the Arabs and the Persians.....

As a reminder, this has virtually nothing to do with the freedom of the Syrian public....those poor people had their dreams stolen, much like Egypt, over two years ago.

Do the Persians really want the fight to move into Lebanon?

Does the Tsar or the Ottomans or the GCC?

If not, how do they stop it?

Once you let a Thug run lose for too long, they start to believe they run the place.

Is that where Nusra and Hezbollah really believe they stand as of today?

Here is a frightening fact that perhaps is becoming more and more a reality.

The Thugs have been allowed to run free too long!!!

The Thugs think they are calling the shots now.. remember... Hezbollah is Arab not Persian and doing everything exactly as Iran / the Persians tell them may not always hold true.

History is stacked with events that spiraled out of control and that spiral has been the fear for over two years now.

What does the Tsar and his Puppet / Persian / lapdog want?

And if they don't have the same goal, how can they stop a event from taking place when the Thugs they control have gotten out of control?

Here is my fear, a fear larger than the one listed above.

Is Hezbollah about to realize that Syria is it's new Lebanon?

Does Hezbollah become the proxy government of Syria after the Tsar and the Persians do Assasd in?

Talk about a Red Line!!!

I love all the talk about a "diplomatic solution"....

Someone please explain to me what that might look like?

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/the-imminent-hezbollah-nusra-war

PKK ARRIVES IN IRAQ???. THE QUESTION IS... NOW WHAT?

On several occasions, I've commented on the issue of the Kurds and what it is they are looking for out of the upheaval that has become the Middle East.

As we watch the PKK move into Iraq, are all of them going there... that's a good question, the Iranians simply are not happy.

As I have said before, the Persians from day one have worried about the founding of the new Kurdistan and what that will mean to the Iranian "Master Plan".

It's been on the minds of the Ottomans as well and my bet is still they struck that deal with the PKK to let the problem go land on Syria's / Iran's and Iraq's lap!!!

Oil from the Kurdish area of Iraq and a slice of Northern Syria means a route to the Mediterranean Sea; a plan that mar or may not include  Turkish involvement.

Now, for the government of Iraq to have  PKK fighters showing up in Iraq, well that's like watching a professional Hit Squad move into the house next door!!

Having said that, let me make one tactical comment to the Iraqi government... if you come after the PKK, you better have a far better force than the one you have now!!!

The Women in the PKK are better fighters than just about anything the Iraqi military has encountered. 

My bet is this, if over a thousand members of the PKK are showing up in Iraq, they are not preparing to sign up for online agricultural classes!!

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2012/07/is-everyone-really-looking-for.html

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2011/07/iran-threatens-iraq-pay-close-attention.html

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2013/03/the-beginning-of-kurdistan-and-end-of.html

IRANIAN ELECTIONS... CAN THE CRACK IN GOVERNMENT WIDEN?

So, Rafsanjani shows back up as some had predicted?

 This will make the process interesting to say the least.

At 79 yrs old, he is one of the most colorful and complex individuals that could possibly enter the race.

Not in the Ahmadinejad camp...not in the "reformist camp".... not in the "ultra conservative camp"... and when you get right down  to it..... it's hard to tell where he stands on issues from day to day.

A "pragmatist"??? I would question that categorization!!

A well schooled "opportunist" is my definition of this old political master of Iranian politics.

A great deal will be written about what this might mean to the elections as the next few weeks pass, but one thing is for sure; the close-hold meetings with Khamenei's inner circle  will be intense.

For all the complexities of the pending election, by far the most important issue will become how does Khamenei handle the process?

Can he over influence the process thus jeopardizing results?

Can he control the outcome as well as he did in 2009 without repercussions?

Can he control the infighting that is going to take place over the next few weeks?

How much attention does he have to give the process as he sits and worries over the Russians and the US cutting a deal on Syria, a deal the Iranians may very well not be party to?

Yes, my friends, as advertised........ the elections this time around in Iran are going to be far more than "interesting"!!!

They could prove to be dangerous to the "old guard"!!!

Iran's time and energy is about to be split between Syria... a proxy war with it's loyal lapdog Hezbollah feeling the strains even internally, the danger of a rebellious Iraqi environment covered with the issue of those always "pesky" Kurds..... and most of all..... A Tsar who the Iranians know all too well will make "deals" based on what is good for Russia and not what is good for Iran and the paranoid Persians.

Let's watch the Iranian leadership squirm!!

http://news.yahoo.com/analysis-iran-election-race-opens-surprise-candidate-enter-192900412.html

GOLAN HEIGHTS... THE NEXT BATTLEFIELD.. I DON'T THINK SO!!

A few days ago I commented on why I thought Iran would take the bold move of sending advanced weapons systems to Hezbollah.

My conclusion was it was all part of a much larger " Master Plan" to buy Iran time!!

I'm still confident that goal remains the major objective of the Iranian leadership, but another level of detail of how this plan is unfolding, a level that could derail the whole Iran objective, should be mentioned.

As we all remember, less than two weeks ago Hezbollah's leader, Nasrallah, gave a nearly panicked speech to on TV as he tried to get his "base" to understand why Hezbollah fighters were being killed in Syria.

The was and to some degree still is, a real danger of a Hezbollah fraction.

Nasrallah painted a less than successful picture of how Hezbollah was preventing the nation of Syria and it's people from falling into the hands of the West and the Israelis in some oddly constructed theory of the West teaming up with Sunni Radicals!!

Many thought had two basic opinions of Nasrallah's speech that day.

1.  It was a poor attempt to justify what Hezbollah was doing.

2.  It was arrogant  beyond imagination.

As we all sat around trying to figure out just what message Iran was sending through Nasrallah, the world fell right into Iran's and Hezbollah's lap!!!!

Israel attacked targets...again.... in Syria.

Suddenly, the ridiculous statements by Nazrallah became far more believable to the average person on the streets of the Middle East...

Did Israel fall right into the hands of Iran and Hezbollah?

Did Iran set the whole weapons movement issue up to time perfectly with Nasrallah's speech?

Here are the simple facts of this week, the week after this all took place.

There is now bold and dangerous talk of combined Hezbollah, Palestinian, radical elements from Syria preparing to take action in the Golan Heights!!

Some may not be putting much "stock" into these comments and threats given all the hype of yet another "Conference" with Russia and the US, but I can assure you the government of Lebanon and Israel and Jordan are taking the issue very seriously!!!

Finally, I find it hard to believe Israel didn't realize they were being manipulated into taking actions in Syria.

My bet is Israel knew exactly what they were doing and they had and have a very good idea of what actions may come of it.

If a regional war starts in the Middle East, Iran will not be spared.... they will not get the time they are working so hard to gain!!!

So, Iran needs to ask itself.....did it work???

Israel will most likely determine the answer.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/May-11/216737-hezbollahs-actions-could-drag-lebanon-to-war-geagea.ashx#axzz2Szb0LDQQ

  

IRAN.SYRIA.HEZBOLLAH.. THE THREE AMIGOS TRY TO SELL A STORY!!! 

Yesterday I addressed some of the possible reasons Iran would ship "redline" weapons to Hezbollah, but there is one thing I forgot to point out; it was a plan where only Arabs would  be killed!!!!

As Assad, Iran and Hezbollah desperately try to paint a picture of Israel supporting the Rebels in Syria, an asinine storyline at best, it should have accrued to everyone paying attention what Iran is really trying to do.......keep the Arabs killing each other all the while praying it keeps Israel distracted.

I must admit the message the Three Amigos tried to sell today was most likely shaped for the Arab youth and it's for that reason I have a recommendation to the GCC governments.

The government controlled media networks of the GCC states.... you know... like Al Jazeera, need to ask one basic question in the morning..... Are the Persians ready to destroy everything they own for the sake of the Arab, Sectarian Civil War...will Persians die in mass for the Arabs????/

I bet I know the answer and I will even give you a hint on the Persian viewpoint.

Mr Salehi put on a real show today in Jordan, but one point stuck out more than most and that was the comment that 'Arab countries should respond to Israel's aggression in Syria' .... paraphrased but close...

Here is the short answer from Tehran to the actions of Israel, " You Arabs need to fight with Israel while we...superior Persians complete  our nuclear weapons program!!!!

And where do the Arabs think they will be when the Persian plan is complete; an equal partner in the affairs of the Middle East??? Don't make me laugh!!

In some shape or  fashion... this is the "Theme" the GCC and it's Allies .... hint...hint... should be working on.....

Just my opinion!

http://www.jpost.com/International/Iran-warns-of-regional-chaos-in-post-Assad-era-312380

WHY CREATE THE ISRAELI " REDLINE"????

Off all the inputs I read and head today, one question was never asked and it's the key question everyone should be contemplating!!!!

Why???

Why would Iran openly supply a category of weapons to Hezbollah that everyone knows Israel will never accept?

Why?

Well, since nobody asked the question today, let me try to answer my own thought of the day.

Lets try several scenarios and see what one fits.

"DIDN'T BELIEVE THEY WOULD DO IT":

Yep, I will start with the most lunatic scenario  first. 

If Iran didn't really believe Israel would attack targets inside of Syria, then perhaps the third time is a charm.... Hint.. if need be there will be more than a third time!!!

"GET THE WEAPONS INTO LEBANON BEFORE THEY STRIKE AND THUS FORCE ISRAEL TO ATTACK TARGETS INSIDE OF LEBANON":

For this scenario to work, Iran would have to once again grossly underestimate Israel's ability to gather targeting intelligence.

By now, I would be stunned if Iran will still misjudging Israel's capabilities; capabilities Iran is convinced the US and the West is "supporting".

Israel is all too aware of the risk involved with attacking targets inside of Lebanon without it being based on a retaliation event.

It is much easier to strike targets in Syria, politically, than to move on the weakened government of Lebanon....... a move the world would truly perceive as pushing Lebanon into a Civil War.

Simply put, Israel is not going to take action against Lebanon unless it's forced to.

So, I don't buy this theory as well!!!

"KEEPING ISRAEL OCCUPIED WITH EVENTS IN SYRIA AND LEBANON BUYS IRAN TIME":

Ok, this is the one worth talking about.

Why would Iran openly push weapons that Israel will not accept at a time when it seems Iran should be purely occupied with saving the Assad regime?

It may just be as simple as this!

Iran believes the best short term doctrine towards Israel is to keep Israel occupied with the proxy fight in Syria.

Ok, here is what is truly interesting about this " concept".

If we assume Iran has taken this "distraction tactic", one I have talked about in the past, then is it possible Iran needs the events in Syria  to continue.........continue long enough to finalize a nuclear weapon's program?

Is this weapons shipment part of a delaying Master Plan?

That is my bet and its the only reason I can accept as to why Iran would do something as politically insain as sending Hezbollah tactical mid range, mobile missiles... missiles they know full well will never make it into conflict.

Finally, if I have come to this conclusion, then what "conclusion" has Israel come to?

If I was Iran, I would try hard to get out of the rut of underestimating Israel.

So, I chose "door number 3"....

IRAN'S VERSION OF A GREAT QUOTE..... CHOOSE WISELY!!!

Is fairly obvious by now that Israel has a different definition crossing "a redline" than it's allies.

In the past 24 hours in the next few days the question has been asked several times in the last two years will be asked again.

What extent is Iran willing to go in order to save your side regime?

Supplying weapons to Hezbollah, weapons that the Israelis have already clearly stated they would not tolerate being given to them, was an act for the purpose of achieving what?

Two years now I have talked about the possibility of Iran or Assad or both, forcing Israel into taking actions that could label them as the "aggressor"!

It is also obvious in the past 24 hours a second critical question needs to be answered.

What will Iran and Assad do if Israel actually enforces its "redline" doctrine?

Simply put, if Israel has called Iran's bluff, brilliantly I might add by not conducting operations on Lebanese soil, what is Iran going to do?

Messages this, "the ball is back in your court.......... Iran........ what will you do............ what price are you willing to pay?

To have said for the last two years, the reluctance be involved in a regional war is only trumped a nation is backed into a corner.

Iran and Hezbollah and Assad have been placed in such a corner.

Escalation!

If that is the option that Iran or Assad or Hezbollah chooses, and they should realize that the Israelis do whatever it takes to protect their nation.

Where the  bombing raids into Syria dangerous escalation?

Obviously the answer is yes.

Are the Iranians and Hezbollah prepared to take it to the next level?

Next day or so may give us our answer, but I can assure you is the most important decision coming out of Tehran and Damascus for the foreseeable future.

Yes, these are very dangerous times and it could very well be that the next nation back away from their "redline" doctrine be the Iranians.

There's a great quote from the movie 300 that applies in the situation more than many understand expiration point

"Choose your next words carefully Leonidas, they may be your last as king".