Tuesday, May 21, 2013




















QUSAYR.. IRAQ  AND LEBANON..WHAT DO THEY HAVE IN COMMON?

Ok, let's go back to the concept of each side in the Syrian conflict attempting to open "Second Fronts" on the opponent.
As we have talked about before, it's obvious the injection of Hezbollah has put new life into the Assad camp.

It is also more than obvious the Persians have decided, after being given the go ahead by the Tsar, up the support tempo to Assad.

We have also gone over the concept of how the Sunni have made the conscious decision to put pressure on the Hezbollah "home front" in Lebanon; thus... a Second Front concept.

It also has become abundantly clear the Sunni game plan for Iraq has been activated knowing full well the aggravation and distraction this will create for the Persians and the Iraqi support to Assad.

Yep; a Third front concept is underway!!!

So, with the score two to one in favor of the Sunni team, the issue of Qusayr comes to life.

What better way to pull the Sunni forces out of the city limits of Damascus then to attack to the rear!!!!

Yes, some of the issue of Qusayr is the issue of cutting off supply lines from Lebanon, but Qusary has absolutely nothing to do with support flowing from Turkey and everyone knows it.

Yes, Homs becomes and issue now, but the concept of the Persian lead forces.. Yes I said Persian lead forces.. taking Homs is a bridge too far even for Hezbollah and the Iranian militia support teams, at least right now.

Now, if we are going to get into the Second Front.... Third Front concept discussion, then why not look at what is taking place in the Golan?

Is Assad or his Persian Bosses trying to entice Israel into a conflict in the Golan?

I don't think so.

It's the threat and intermittent aggravation from that area that the Persians and Assad hope will keep Israel occupied.

A poor plan I might add.

And finally, lets relook at what is taking place in Lebanon in the past few days and what may be changing.

Tripoli is once again a hotbed for conflict and I'm not sold on the fact that the Second Front concept took into consideration what might happen in Lebanon.

It's one thing to think you can distract your enemy with attacks to their base, but without carefully thought out considerations for events ether side may not be able to control, a Second Front "plan" may just turn into a full blown crisis.

Ok, here is the problem with the whole region at this moment in time  and it's getting more dangerous by the hour.

When major events are planned by minor, individual thinkers, insert Clannish mentality here, even the "Big" players may not be able to control what happens.

There is a mad rush to a proposed "peace conference" right now and we have to wonder what has put the panic into the "big players"?

Perhaps they know things are about to spin out of control and they all sound like Chicken Little. AGAIN!!




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