Monday, May 6, 2013


















WHY CREATE THE ISRAELI " REDLINE"????

Off all the inputs I read and head today, one question was never asked and it's the key question everyone should be contemplating!!!!

Why???

Why would Iran openly supply a category of weapons to Hezbollah that everyone knows Israel will never accept?

Why?

Well, since nobody asked the question today, let me try to answer my own thought of the day.

Lets try several scenarios and see what one fits.

"DIDN'T BELIEVE THEY WOULD DO IT":

Yep, I will start with the most lunatic scenario  first. 

If Iran didn't really believe Israel would attack targets inside of Syria, then perhaps the third time is a charm.... Hint.. if need be there will be more than a third time!!!

"GET THE WEAPONS INTO LEBANON BEFORE THEY STRIKE AND THUS FORCE ISRAEL TO ATTACK TARGETS INSIDE OF LEBANON":

For this scenario to work, Iran would have to once again grossly underestimate Israel's ability to gather targeting intelligence.

By now, I would be stunned if Iran will still misjudging Israel's capabilities; capabilities Iran is convinced the US and the West is "supporting".

Israel is all too aware of the risk involved with attacking targets inside of Lebanon without it being based on a retaliation event.

It is much easier to strike targets in Syria, politically, than to move on the weakened government of Lebanon....... a move the world would truly perceive as pushing Lebanon into a Civil War.

Simply put, Israel is not going to take action against Lebanon unless it's forced to.

So, I don't buy this theory as well!!!

"KEEPING ISRAEL OCCUPIED WITH EVENTS IN SYRIA AND LEBANON BUYS IRAN TIME":

Ok, this is the one worth talking about.

Why would Iran openly push weapons that Israel will not accept at a time when it seems Iran should be purely occupied with saving the Assad regime?

It may just be as simple as this!

Iran believes the best short term doctrine towards Israel is to keep Israel occupied with the proxy fight in Syria.

Ok, here is what is truly interesting about this " concept".

If we assume Iran has taken this "distraction tactic", one I have talked about in the past, then is it possible Iran needs the events in Syria  to continue.........continue long enough to finalize a nuclear weapon's program?

Is this weapons shipment part of a delaying Master Plan?

That is my bet and its the only reason I can accept as to why Iran would do something as politically insain as sending Hezbollah tactical mid range, mobile missiles... missiles they know full well will never make it into conflict.

Finally, if I have come to this conclusion, then what "conclusion" has Israel come to?

If I was Iran, I would try hard to get out of the rut of underestimating Israel.

So, I chose "door number 3"....

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