SO..  DID IRAN REALLY BELIEVE MORSI WOULD LET IT ALL GO THEIR WAY?

                                                                                                                                                                            

In the Middle Eastern game of Double Cross, Iran got “punked” yesterday!!

The moral to the story here was, never invite an Arab Shia to a Persian / Sunni pep rally and believe you are going to have things go your way.

I would have loved to have heard the Persians as Morsi was giving his speech!!!!

The battlefield of Sunni   vs Shia / Arab vs Persian, just grew more evident with this stunt.

Now, it’s true the NAM is about as relevant as the GCC or the Arab League, but the Iranians somehow thought having this group of  professional meeting holders in Tehran would signify  Iran’s    status in the world?????? Really??

I have mentioned before the Iranians seem to have a very unrealistic concept of how to influence the outside world and this event adds credence to my point.

What I find fascinating is how, once again, Morsi played someone or some nation to his benefit.

He never intended of showing up in Iran and making Iran look good, but I would be willing to bet he smiled the whole time he was meeting the Persians.

Truly his skills of deception continue to prove one of his most powerful  tools.

Yes, the game of Double Cross played another round in Iran this week.

I bet two things will happen.

1.        The Persians / Shias will not let this “betrayal” go easily

2.       This will not be the last time Morsi “plays” his local leaders.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/08/20128308579560767.html

SO.. WHO IS ASSAD ATTEMPTING TO CONVINCE?

To read these stories today dealing with Assad attempting to convince "someone" or some group, that he simply needs more time brings up an interesting issue.

Who is he trying to "convince"?

His supporters, but what section of his supporters?

The Russians... the Iranians.. the Sunni business owners ????

I have another question besides that issue.

Why does he feel compelled to convince some one or some group he is going to make it?

Has he caught wind of someone or some group abandoning him?

If he has, it would have to be a supporter that was important enough to him that he would give such a bold statement.

The DEBKA attached story might just be a indicator of what is worrying Assad.

If Putin has decided to disengage with Assad, I am sure he would not do so in a written letter to the media.

If the DEBKA sources are correct, then I would bet the Tsar will not do so lightly.

If Russia is about to give up on Assad, there will be a price to pay somewhere else; that's just how the old KGB Boss does business.

So, lets assume Assad is really worried about "key" supporters pulling away.

What does it mean to him?

It means he is nearer to his death bed than most realize!

This press announcement by Assad was almost like a scene right out of an old Mob movie.

"Just give me a little more time.. you know I'm good for the money"!!!

BANG!

That is how the line usually ends in the Mob movies and that may be the way Assad's movie is about to end.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19407502

http://www.debka.com/article/22314/Russia-is-disengaging-from-Syria-Arms-shipments-stopped-warships-exit-Tartus

IRAN "ADMITTING THE OBVIOUS!

A well written article by Anshel Pfeffer  on a statement that is most likely going to  be overlooked.

If anyone has a good understanding of just how bad things are going for Assad, it's Solaimani and Khamenei listens to Solaimani.

Remember my baseline argument; Iran will never survive a Sunni victory in Syria.

With the downing of yet another aircraft of Assad's yesterday, the question becomes more and more important.

When does the real "tide" of the conflict change?

When we see rebels You Tubing clips of shoulder fired weapons at Syrian aircraft, the answer will be clear.

Solaimani probably knows this moment is near and he may have finally convinced Khamenei it was time to warn the region.

A slow leak to a non prime time media outlet is a good way to judge the initial reaction and I think that is exactly what Iran has accomplished.

If this "admission" doesn't make real headlines in the next day or so, Iran will make it even more clear perhaps even with actions instead of words.

Khamenei has been at a loss as to shaping the events in Syria for months now.

It's hard to paint a picture of success when bombs are going off in Damascus and Aleppo is a battle zone.  

Khamenei is leaning more and more on Solaimani to figure a way out of this mess and save Iran from the Arab Spring.

Solaimani has one theory and it may be Khamenei is giving in to it.

Fight!!!

Show the world Iran will not stand for the loss of Syria / Hezbollah and Lebanon.

Solaimani is a battle tested Warrior and his opinion of " talking" is well known.

So, what is my interpatation of this somewhat surprising, but predictable statement?

It could be Khamenei has been told what is about to happen in Syria and he is lost on what to do next; and that means Solaimani becomes a key power broker!

http://www.haaretz.com/blogs/the-axis/why-is-iran-suddenly-admitting-to-sending-troops-to-syria.premium-1.461237

MORSY SPEAKS AND NOW TO READ BETWEEN THE LINES.

So, Mr. Morsy put on his fist "official" international interview today?

The fact that he is about to go "on the road" to China and then Iran explains his prepatory work at looking  'worldly".

I must admit, I found what he said, and I think what he meant, to be interesting.

The art of messages inside of message is a classic political tool and Mr. Morsy knows how to execute that process well.

Lets take a quick look at a few of his comments:

"BALANCE"!

I would love to listen in on Mr. Morsy talking with the Muslim Brotherhood about their definition of " balance".

My take is his meaning of balance equates to less dependence on the West / US.

A subtle way of saying, " I'm going to start shopping at more stores than just the Western ones".

"PEACE DEALS"

As I said three weeks ago, he has redefined what "normal" means when it comes to Egyptian troops in the Sinai.

Most of us knew all too well that once those units are in, they are not coming out.

He didn't need to renegotiate the Camp David Treaty; he simply ignored it.

Notice his line about "soil"?

He is in the Sinai to stay.

MEETING WITH ISRAEL:

 He didn't mention that he planned on it because he doesn't!

I would bet the Israelis will find a way to reach out to him and see if he will answer.

Remember, he left the Muslim Brotherhood!!!! RIGHT!!!

COMFORTABLE WITH TAKING A HIGHER PROFILE IN THE REGION:

Why of course he is... it's been part of the MB's Mater Plan all this time.

How much he can convince China he is ready for "Prime Time" will be interesting.

Unless Egypt has something China can mine out of it's land or unless Egypt will sell it water control of the Nile to China, I'm not sure what the Asian "Borg" will see in Egypt.

SYRIA:

Now let's see... The Muslim Brotherhood / Sunni / government of Egypt thinks that Assad should leave power... Gee... what a surprise.

I'm sure Mr Morsy would be more than willing to get some neutral third party to form an interim government..... like maybe the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood I bet!!!!

I bet this topic doesn't come up on his trip to Iran.

By the way, if Iran tries to play his visit as a ploy on support for Syria, the meeting will not last long.

Ok, so Mr. Morsy has stepped into the "big leagues"?

Now lest see how the players already on the field treat him.

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=282833

ABBAS AND THE IRANIAN MEDDLING!

As I talked about two days ago, the Iranian meddling in the affairs of the PA and more specifically  Hamas is easy for all to see especially Mr. Abbas!

This event is not about playing Hamas off against Abbas.

Iran could care less about the welfare of Hamas or Abbas.

The Palestinian "issue' is to Iran what it has always been, a tool to manipulate the greater goals of the Persians / Shia / and Iran.

Iran, Saudi, Jordan, Egypt and on and on....  have no intention of finding a long term solution to the PA issue.

What they all need is the issue to meet their individual needs / political goals and that has very little to do with the status of simple Palestinians.

If Hamas goes to Iran, If Abbas goes to Iran; the outcome will be the same.

Iran will look to leverage the PA issue for the sake of keeping the Persian dreams alive.

Abbas knows this and Hamas knows this; everyone knows it!

So, Is Iran trying to "divide" the PA camp?

It already is divided!

Is Iran attempting to manipulate the PA issue for the sake of Iran?

Of course!!

As I said two days ago, the real issue here is the Muslim Brotherhood resenting Iran's "meddling" in PA affiars.

The future of the PA issue is now claimed, or soon will be, by the MB.

The Persians / Shia / will get that message from the MB soon!

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=282632

IS IRAN STILL ATTEMPTING TO INFLUENCE HAMAS?

Several months ago, it was very clear Hamas  pulled away from the Syrian / Iranian orbit.

Anyone who understands the dynamics of the region understands the move by the Muslim Brotherhood to pull the Sunni proxy back into the Sunni world and away from the Persians and the Shia.

Abbas's struggle with Hamas was addressed and words were spoken to placate the MB.

Nothing was solved, but the MB could push the issue to the back burner while they finished their drive to control Egypt.

So, how is it that Iran is making a play to influence Hamas once again?

Is Iran trying to show the MB just how important they are to the region?

Is Iran trying to keep Hamas and Abbas in turmoil?

Is Iran's theory, "if we can't have them, nobody can"?

How this next week will be interesting to watch.

If this is Hamas, secretly trying to play both sides of the fence and the MB still thinks they had something to do with the attack in the Sinai, then we will see the reaction.

Double Cross is the favorite game played in the Middle East and the MB will not take it with a smile.

Oh by the way, time is running out to defuse the events in Lebanon.

If someone doesn't get that situation under control within the next few days, the NAM meeting will be overcome by "events".

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=282492

LEBANON CLASHES? WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

This is not the first or second round of "clashes" in Lebanon since the crisis in Syria began, so is this round any different?

Unfortunately yes!

Let me remind everyone the prevailing mindset for the region.

If Lebanon slide into a full blown crisis, the region will do so as well.

As a reminder, I have not moved off of my belief Iran cannot accept the loss of Syria and Hezbollah dominated Lebanon at the same time.

War is a better option for Iran than to lose both these proxies and Iran will not hesitate to make that fateful decision.

For Iranian leadership, the loss of Lebanon / Hezbollah and Syria is a direct threat to the current leadership in Iran.

Can Iran stop the events in Lebanon from taking place?

They can surly try, if they chose to.

Will Hezbollah obey Tehran if they are told to give ground for now in Lebanon?

They already have!

It's the Sunni side of the conflict that is pushing the crisis in Lebanon and that is what has Iran in a panic.

For months many have talked about the dangers of Lebanon slipping into conflict and it appears those fears are quickly coming true.

Iran is almost out of time to force Israel into attacking Arab / Muslims in Lebanon.

If Lebanon's conflict starts with Sunni and Shia attacks, it's virtually impossible to draw Israel into that fight.

So, how much longer does the region have before Iran is force to be the one that starts the war they are waiting for; the war the Iranian people don't want?

It depends on the Lebanese military.

If they cannot stop the escalation from spreading out from streets around Tripoli, then Lebanon will quickly slide into the abyss.  

What to watch for:

If the current so called " coalition government" in Lebanon steps down, then the crisis will be unavoidable.

If Lebanon starts to "burn" then look for the Iranians to counter the event quickly.

If Lebanon starts to "burn" watch Bahrain and the PKK in Turkey / Syria.

The moment Iran understand they cannot prevent the crisis involving Hezbollah, they will make the whole region pay as much of a price as they possibly can.

Are we close to a region conflict?

Absolutely!

The only and I mean only thing the region has going for it is the unrelenting desire to stay out of a regional war by key players... .Saudi / Turkey / Egypt / Jordan.. GCC...

Will that be enough?

You will have to ask Assad and Tehran!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19354337

DEFEAT IRAN'S LEADERSHIP, NOT IT'S PEOPLE?? IS IT POSSIBLE?

One question that is being asked more and more right now, as we run out of time and options, is this; " Is there a way to stop Iran's drive for nuclear weapons without warfare"?

The prevailing answer seems to be no!

Some have said "Sanctions" is, and now, was, part of the attempt to avoid conflict.

The concept of sanctions has had a terrible track record not just in Iran but in just about every example one can think of.

Some will even argue sanctions have a history of forcing a conflict... again.. Japan is a classic example.

If we accept the fact that sanctions are not and will not work, especially sanctions that have about as many " loop holes" as the US tax code,  then what is the answer?

Before we jump to the conclusion of " limited / scalable / military action, let me bring up another option, an option most will say is less honorable than the above listed two.

Before I use the ugly "word" for what I am about to advocate, let me ask  a core question.

Do the people of Iran truly have the loyalty to their nation's leadership their leaders want us to believe?

Are the Iranians ready to follow the Ayatollah Khamenei and the Mad Persian off the edge of the cliff?

Do they really cheer when their leaders preach about the disappearance of the Zionist?

Let me give you my answer to these two questions.

NO!

As I have said from the beginning of the Arab Spring,  both Iranian leaders fear one thing more than anything else, even more than Zionist... they fear their own people and a human drive to be free!

They fear this movement so much, they are willing to take Iran to destruction.

They would rather end the history book of Iran with their sick vision of the world than to live to see the Iranian people truly deciding what takes place in Iran.

Assassination!  

There it is... that ugly ... ugly ... world...

The facts are removing the tyrannical leadership of Iran will very possibly elevate the crisis.

Who carries out this ugly mission and how it is executed is the real trick.

Those that could do it with a simple phone call, insert the word " Mossad" here, must be avoided for obvious reasons.

Now, that is not to say Netanyahu would not or has not considered this course of action and frankly, if he has, I would find a nice White Sheet for both Iranian leaders to be wrapped in, but the risk of such an event would rank right up there with "limited warfare".

No, if this course of action is to take place, then it's going to need an insider; yep a 2012 version of the Shah!!!!

Could it be that somewhere inside the Iranian government, military; even the Republican Guard, there is someone or even better some group that sees the value / opportunity /  to "save Iran" from the madness.

Now, who could approach such a person or group?

The GCC?

Turkey?

Russia?

Nobody wants a regional war, especially the youth of Iran.

The problem is, even the people of Iran cannot sit by and watch their country be bombed into the darkness?

If pushed, even those who don't want to fight, will fight.

That is why they have to shown, "other options".

The problem is the two mad leaders of Iran fear this " other options" mindset inside their own population and they will do anything to head it off.

Rushing the country to war is acceptable to these two madmen and that is why "other options" must be moved on quickly.

The good news is, I would be wiling to bet this " other option" has been well thought through, and perhaps even approached.

Is there a 2012 version of the Shah out there?

Let's hope so and let's pray a deal is struck before it's too late.

Time grows short.

http://www.debka.com/article/22293/Iranian-leaders-in-Israel%E2%80%99s-sights-after-calling-for-its-destruction

BUT, IT'S THE THOUGHT THAT COUNTS!

When you read this news article, pay particular attention to the last line.

Jamil could very well be stating what his leadership feels or he may be restating what the Russian / Chinese have advised him.

What does appear to be obvious is Jamil's confidence in the protection of the two big powers.

On that note, it's interesting he doesn't mention anything about Iranian support?

Why lean on Iran when you can hide behind Russia and China?

So, is this counter warning about a Regional War based on a true belief in "top cover" by Russia and China?

If it is, it verifies Jamil is just another fool stepping up to the media microphone.

Let's ask the next important question.

Regardless of the confidence Assad may have in support from his so called friends, does he really intend on attacking others in the region if he believes "Western powers" or supported / Allies of the West take overt action in Syria?

Probably so, although it could very well be at that moment in time his two most trusted "friends" may put a bullet in the back of his head; as the Iranians angrily stand by and watch.

Does Russia and China want or more importantly need a "Regional War" in the Middle East?

No!!

Can they prevent one from taking place?

Probably not!

So you see, it's up to Assad and his true handler, Iran.

Finally, I'm not convinced Assad or Iran will wait until they see US / NATO / tail flashes flying in Syrian airspace.

Both he and his Masters in Tehran already believe outsiders are supporting the rebels.

When he decides to "pull the trigger" on inflicting pain on those he blames for his crisis is truly up to him; well... it's really up to his Masters in Tehran.

Hiding behind Russia and China may seem safe for now, but I would equate that to hiding behind a Great White Shark as I was bleeding from the leg!!!!

http://www.jpost.com/International/Article.aspx?id=282050

MURSI AND  THE SINAI:

The verdict is still out on who was responsible for the attack a few weeks ago, but it is very apparent how the event has been molded into the " Master Plan" for the MB.

 Getting Israel's consent to move forces into the restricted Sinai under the auspice of countering a proven threat to not only Egypt but Israel as well, was a clever move.

Moving more than you were given permission to, such as Tanks, is brilliant opportunity not lost by the MB.

Does anyone really think these forces will be removed, even if  the supposed threat is removed?

Don't bet on it.

With these troops already in place, why would Egypt / the MB / not raise the subject of reviewing "treaty statuses" with Israel?

Would the argument not be, " it is obvious that times have changed and Egypt must be given the ability to keep 'everyone' in the region safe from Terrorist acts"?

You can bet Mursi will frame his argument in a manner close to this.

How will Israel respond?

Does Israel already have too much on it's plate with Iran to spend energy and political capital on the subject of the Sinai; at least for now?

My bet is they do.

MURSI'S / MB / MOVE ON THE EGYPTIAN MEDIA:

Almost completely off the radar, something the MB is very good at, is the topic of Mursi's government moving on the media of Egypt.

If you have not been following this story, you are not alone.

Syria is the sexy, crisis for the media right now and that will be backed up by Iran and Israel.

When the smoke clears, the media of Egypt will be just as tightly controlled as Mubarak ever could have dreamt of.

Let not forget who we are dealing with here.

When the Muslim Brotherhood makes the statement, "we are a new, more passive, more compassionate organization", that is the equivalent of the Mob stating they are opening a community center for the good of the neighborhood.

It's like Putin saying, " I feel your pain"!!!

The problem obviously continues to be, the rest of the Western world is just too tired or too preoccupied by crisis called the Middle East to confront what they know is taking place.

The Muslim Brotherhood is the slow cancer that no one pays attention to until it's too late.

Smiling as he lies to the "Infidels" is a key tool in Mursi's leadership style.

He is about to use it when he visits the Persians next week.

http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2012/1111/eg5.htm

SO; DOES IRAN REALLY....REALLY BELIEVE THEY ARE READY?

As I stated yesterday, it is puzzling to me that Iran would truly attempt to prod Israel into a war.

For over a year now I have wondered if Iran was so frightened of the Tunisian Virus / Arab Spring / that it would contemplate warfare with Israel as an alternative.

In the past, I have commented on the concept of " Limited Warfare vs Total Warfare and how Iran could easily blunder into an event far beyond what they anticipated.

Prodding Israel with Hezbollah with the intention of Israel attacking Lebanon territory is a plot the Israelis have long figure out.

So, why the push for warfare?

Why a desire for a probable end state that leaves Iran in ruins?

Let's disregard the idea of Iran believing they can defeat Israel.

They know that is completely impossible; at least at this point in time.

If we accept this premise, then what other conclusions are out there?

Here is the one I fear and have feared for some time now.

Iran has watched with absolute horror the destruction of Syria town by town, city by city.

Iran has witnessed a population that is disintegrating into uncontrollable, mindless violence and they know this could easily be  their fate!

Is Iran willing to risk the fallout from what they hope would be a "Limited War" with Israel rather than the " Total Warfare" destruction of an Arab Spring in Iran?

Would Iran's leadership rather risk the loyalty of the Iranian public fighting the Zionist, then to turn it's own weapons on it's own people?

Simply put; is Iran more afraid of the Arab Spring than they are a war with Israel?

I think the answer might just be yes!!!

Here is the nightmare of my theory.

If I am right, then the pending war between Iran and Israel must take place and Iran knows it.

Hence; the constant push for Israeli response to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

If Lebanon slides into civil crisis because of Syria, the window of opportunity for Iran to utilize Hezbollah as the launching pad  is gone and the hope of a limited war with a enemy who will be pushed for "limits" will also be gone.

Iran's war of words is one last desperate attempt to convince the Iranian public they don't have time for their version of the Arab Spring.

If it doesn't work, Iran is left with one option; Total Warfare!

Time will have run out for Limited Warfare.

All countries strive to shape the future of their existence.

Iran has all but lost their ability to do so.

Israel holds the cards, for now.

WAR OF WORDS. NOTHING NEW.. .OR IS IT?

Iran and Israel using inflammatory language towards each other is nothing new.

I've even said this before in on this blogg site.

So, is this most recent round of "words" anything new?

yes!

"Chicken Little" is the attitude of the average American right now, but some of the more ominous signs are out there.

First off, the US stock market was weak at best this last week and all the talk was about a continuing "weak" market.

That is not the type of news or movement that moves the price of oil up, yet the price did go up... all week.

Those that run the oil markets and oil industry know no political or ideological boundaries.

Their ability to get the "ground facts" from those who are in the know is common knowledge.

Short answer, when you see the market going down or staying weak, but the price of spec market oil is going up, that's a sign of interpreted tension.

Now, a great deal of the hot air coming out of Iran and it's Puppet Hebollah this week had to do with the celebration of " CUD", a trumped up 1979 gimmick by the old Iranian regime to promote violence.

In the next few days, I will go back and revisit just how devastating this conflict could be, but before I do that I will ask one simple question; an important issue that sets the tone for the entire region.

Is Iran truly ready for the level of destruction that could be about to fall on them?

Do the leaders in Iran truly believe their own hype?

Last but not least; do the people of Iran understand what might be about to happen to them?

If Iran responds to a limited Israeli strike with a disproportionate counter assault, the results for Iran will leave them in a crisis they will not climb out of for a decade.

But then again, will Israel strike first?

That is a point I will once again revisit in the next few days.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/08/201281717556151270.html    

SO... IS SAUDI WILLING TO KEEP THE STATUS QUO????

An interesting concept by the author and one several have contemplated ever since hearing of the strange invite by Saudi to the Iranians.

Could it be the Saudis are really willing to keep things just the way they are even when it comes to Iran just to keep the " Sectarian / Arab Spring / from continuing it's take over of the region?

Is that what they are really afraid of?

Does that mean Iran is willing to go along with this concept?

My bet is no!

As tempting as it would be for both of them to strike a deal that holds off the Arab Spring, the author's theory has one fatal flaw.

The Arab Spring is just as much about the Sunni / Muslim Brotherhood as it is a sectarian movement of governance.

The MB's desire to change the government of Saudi / the GCC and Iran is concept far more dangerous than a sectarian ideology and both the Saudis and the Iranian's know it.

So, it's an interesting concept to think the "old guard" is trying to agree on keeping the old status quo, but I really don't anticipate that "plan" holding water.

Never the less, it is obvious the King is worried about his and his families future and he would not have made such a bold move if he didn't think it had a chance of bringing about some level of results.

The problem is, it may have just shown the Iranians, just how worried the Saudis are and that is something Iran can exploit.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NH18Ak02.html

SUPPRESSION OF  SYRIAN AIR POWER.. DOES IT TAKE AIR POWER?

for a several weeks now I've been asking some of my old friends a simple question.

Does it take air to air superiority to insure air dominance.

Now, without going into to some long boring War College level discussion on Air Power and Air Dominance, lets look at the question I'm asking.

If you need to insure your enemy can't attack your location from the air, do you need to patrol the air itself or do you need to be able to deny your enemy the ability to fly safely in the air space above your location?

The flying community will tell you, " absolutely.. you need air to air superiority to insure air dominance"... It's what I refer to as "Job Security".

Is it possible to deny your enemy air space operations from the ground?

Let me give you a "hint"...

How many times did the US and the West provide a " no fly zone" in Afghanistan during the Soviet occupation?

What was the major contributing factor to breaking the Soviets will to stay in Afghanistan? Hint. The loss of helicopters and "leaders" inside them was extremely high.

Ok, let me get to my point.

The West doesn't need to provide the Syrian rebels with the  coveted " No Fly Zone".

What needs to happen seems to already be underway.

The rebels can be armed to deny the airspace over rebel held land.

The Syrian air force is not the advanced juggernaut the media makes it out to be.

Have anyone seen the MiG or attack helicopters tossing flairs as they conduct their attack runs on the rebels? I don't think so!!!

The Air suppression process for the rebels can be achieved without Western / NATO / air to air operations.

Why go on a high risk mission to attack SAM sites in Syria when you can simply deny the air space of the Syrian air force over held territory?

Why fight at a "force on force" level when you can continue what has been successful for  months, hit and run unconventional tactics?

As I said two days ago, the ability to make the Syrian air force and army plan for air interdiction, something they had to start doing as soon as they lost the MiG, is a process that only slows their offensive operations.

The rebels do not need the skies of Syria clear of  Assad's planes and helicopters.

What they need is the ability to deny air space in the area they are operating.

Asking for NATO " No Fly Zones" is the wrong request.

Asking for anti air weapons and the training to use them; that is the right answer.

Again; as I said two days ago, be careful what you ask for.

Dropping a MiG or a Hind is one thing; shooting down a airliner or another countries transport aircraft; that is a whole different issue.

If the "Friends" of the rebels / insert the GCC here / are going to support the rebels anti air capability, they better have a well thought out plan and limitations.

Someone better do a real good job of vetting the "rebels" who get the training and get access to these types of weapons.

Most of the world believes this process is already underway.. Perception is reality!

Air denial that makes it to the media is a level of bad news Assad and his supporters may react to severely.

 As I said months ago on the topic of " No Fly Zones", be very careful what you ask for.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/08/201281651250103232.html

FOR THE MB, EVERYTHING HAS A SCHEDULE.

We have seen this process with the MB before; trying to get Hamas and Fatah to come to some level of cohesion, but the event was not on the top of the MB list of things to do.

First they had to win the election in Egypt.

Second they had to neutralize the Egyptian military leadership.

My suspension will be the third priority will be to start the rewrite of the Egyptian Constitution; although Morsy may slow that process down now that he has centralized his own power.

Who cares about a new Constitution after you have gained all the power?

In the order of things, I would be willing to bet Morsy and the MB didn't anticipate dealing with the PA issue just yet.

The events of last week have pushed this issue back to the forefront and so he must at least calm the waters for now.

A meeting where he tells both sides to  "calm down" is probably about as far as this next meeting will get.

Behind closed doors, it would be interesting to who Morsy truly believes was behind the attacks last week.

Some speculate he may have arranged the event to justify the move on the Egyptian Military leadership, but I don't buy that.

Morsy knew he was one major event away from being able to pull off the removal plan.

If it wouldn't have been the events in the Sinai, it would have been something else.

Now, that is not to say, if the MB truly believes Hamas had something to do with the death of Egyptians, there will not be a price to pay.

The financial repercussions of the Egyptians closing off the tunnels into Gaza would be the death bell for Hamas and Fatah knows it.

How Morsy and the MB handle this event will become clear when the time comes.

Both Hamas and Fatah realize, deep down inside, they are nothing more than "Pawns" in the Egyptian game of regional chess.

How the MB plans to deal with Israel will decide the future of Hamas and Fatah.

Both will have no other "Daddy" to turn to if Iran and Syria are neutralized.

I said this over almost two years ago, but let me say it again.

In the Master Plan of the Muslim Brotherhood, The Palestinian "Weapon" is the final act for the move on the  " Holy Land".

When that move comes will be at the decision of the MB and I would still bet you that will be after the Iranian / Syrian events have come to pass.

Do not forget the one enduring virtue of the MB.

The patience of Job!!!!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=281212

SYRIAN REBELS AND ANTI AIRCRAFT WEAPONS?? WHAT WOULD IT MEAN?

With all the talk of the downed MiG today, it brings to light a issue that needs careful consideration.

It's a point of history the inclusion of anti air weapons in Afghanistan was the key factor in the defeat of the Soviet military there.

If the statement today was, " anti air" weapons could change the course of the war in Syria, the person or persons saying this could be far more astute than they realize.

Anti SAM operations for the Syrian air force is most likely weak at best and the fact their pilots have not stayed proficient in this highly perishable skill for well over a year now could be a crisis Assad doesn't realize.

Forcing helicopters to realize they are no longer in controlled airspace is going to have a dramatic impact on assaulting city sites.

If the rebels gain the ability to secure or at least threaten the airspace over their heads, the impact will be dramatic.

So, is this potential game changer good news?

Maybe not!

If these weapons are now becoming available to the rebels, we have to ask the question; what are the guidelines?

It's one thing to bring down a tactical target such as a MiG or a attack helicopter, but what happens if the rebels or worse yet those who are not rebels take a shot at non tactical aircraft?

What stops the rebels from targeting non tactical aircraft?

What stops those who pretend to be rebels from obtaining these weapons in the name of the revolution?

Are these weapons in the rebels hands yet?

http://www.debka.com/article/22264/Clinton-Chemical-warfare-is-planned-for-Rebels-get-first-anti-air-Stingers

Lets assume they do and lets also assume the agreements on how they may be used can and will be violated; if there was an agreement!

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/syrian-opposition-leader-calls-fly-zone-16989496#.UCm7q52PV8E

At face value, this may sound like a good news story.

My fear is, this could be the event that truly turns Assad into a completely  desperate leader.

That fear is only compounded by my fear of what other targets may be chosen. 

THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD'S MOVE? ANYONE SURPRISED?

Over a year ago, I mad the comment the MB is like the Colin Cancer of politics.

The advancement is slow, subtle and as non confrontational as they judge it to be.

Saying one thing, with a smile and a handshake, and doing another is the signature of the MB.

Telling the " Infidels" what they want to hear is totally acceptable and most often necessary.  

So, who was really surprised by the action of the new Egyptian government?

Well, the truth is, I bet everyone was!!!

It's a convenient storyline to believe everything is going to sail along in Egypt while the whole world fixates on Syria and Iran.

That was and is exactly what the MB counted on.

Ok, lets cut the to the chase here.

What does it mean to have the Military leadership sacked in Egypt?

Oh, by the way; does anyone remember the similar actions taken by the " Islamic Government" in Turkey?

Ask the Turkish Generals how they are doing?

Here is what the actions of the MB mean to the MB of Egypt.

The days of believing anything they say are quickly coming to a close, even for those that want no problems between now and November  of this year!

The old saying goes like this; " fool me once shame on you.. fool me twice.. shame on me".

The West is on "Fool me" for the fourth or fifth time.

The MB timing of this event is not to be overlooked.

The tensions between Hamas and the PA / Abbas / are part of this formula.

As confusing as the " who done it" game from last weeks attack out of the Sinai may be, the Israelis only see one issue... Egypt just become more of a threat than it was seven days ago.

At a time when Israel is working despertly to keep from falling into a crisis with Syria / Iran and Hezbollah, the MB actions in Egypt will only make matters worse.

Morsi may truly believe he has pulled off a stunning move and me may bask in his successful deception of the West, but the fact of the matter is he has set something in motion he may not be able to control.

The most dangerous dictators, and that is quickly what he is becoming, in the world are the ones that think they are smarter than everyone else around them.

There will be a price for Morsi to pay for this event.

The question becomes, who will make him pay and how?

Finally.. I hope the world, especially the part of the world that thinks the MB is an organization that can be worked with, is waking up to the reality of what is truly going on.

The MB sees themselves as the pinnacle of the Sunni sweep in the Middle East.

Lets see how the Ottomans and the Persians react to the MB game.

http://www.debka.com/article/22268/Muslim-Brotherhood-anti-army-coup-in-Cairo-Tanks-move-up-to-Israel-border

OVERLOOKED EVENTS TELL THE FUTURE OF THE REGION!

This event took place in the past few days and 99percent of the world simply didn't see it or has no idea what it might mean.

Michel Samahas' detention for over explosives being moved into Lebanon by

Syria is just another indicator of how dangerous events are becoming for

Lebanon.

Hezbollah cannot help but see this event as yet another sign the leadership

in Lebanon is becoming more and more embolden to pull away from Assad.

Pulling away from Assad is leading to pulling away from Hezbollah.

For Hezbollah, the trend in Lebanon is reaching a point of crisis.

At a time when Iran was caught red handed with troops in Syria, all the

while talking about the desire to keep "outside" interference from taking

place in Syria, the added pressure of Lebanon and Hezbollah only stokes the

fires in Tehran.

Is Samahas really guilty of moving explosives into Lebanon?

Who knows and who cares! 

The story in itself is irrelevant.

What is important is the "trend" it shows for Lebanon; a trend that

continues to push Iran further into the panic mode.

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=9221