LEBANON CLASHES? WHAT DOES IT MEAN?
This is not the first or second round of "clashes"
in Lebanon since the crisis in Syria began, so is this round any different?
Unfortunately yes!
Let me remind everyone the prevailing mindset for the
region.
If Lebanon slide into a full blown crisis, the region will
do so as well.
As a reminder, I have not moved off of my belief Iran cannot
accept the loss of Syria and Hezbollah dominated Lebanon at the same time.
War is a better option for Iran than to lose both these
proxies and Iran will not hesitate to make that fateful decision.
For Iranian leadership, the loss of Lebanon / Hezbollah and
Syria is a direct threat to the current leadership in Iran.
Can Iran stop the events in Lebanon from taking place?
They can surly try, if they chose to.
Will Hezbollah obey Tehran if they are told to give ground
for now in Lebanon?
They already have!
It's the Sunni side of the conflict that is pushing the
crisis in Lebanon and that is what has Iran in a panic.
For months many have talked about the dangers of Lebanon
slipping into conflict and it appears those fears are quickly coming true.
Iran is almost out of time to force Israel into attacking
Arab / Muslims in Lebanon.
If Lebanon's conflict starts with Sunni and Shia attacks,
it's virtually impossible to draw Israel into that fight.
So, how much longer does the region have before Iran is
force to be the one that starts the war they are waiting for; the war the
Iranian people don't want?
It depends on the Lebanese military.
If they cannot stop the escalation from spreading out from
streets around Tripoli, then Lebanon will quickly slide into the abyss.
What to watch for:
If the current so called " coalition government"
in Lebanon steps down, then the crisis will be unavoidable.
If Lebanon starts to "burn" then look for the
Iranians to counter the event quickly.
If Lebanon starts to "burn" watch Bahrain and the
PKK in Turkey / Syria.
The moment Iran understand they cannot prevent the crisis
involving Hezbollah, they will make the whole region pay as much of a price as
they possibly can.
Are we close to a region conflict?
Absolutely!
The only and I mean only thing the region has going for it
is the unrelenting desire to stay out of a regional war by key players...
.Saudi / Turkey / Egypt / Jordan.. GCC...
Will that be enough?
You will have to ask Assad and Tehran!
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