ALEPPO “FINAL ASSAULT” WHAT’S HAPPENING? IS THIS FINALLY A SHIPWRECK?

I intended on addressing the issue of India and Pakistan and the growing danger stimming from the Kashmir conflict. Honestly, that situation is just as dangerous as the current political crisis over the air attacks on Aleppo. But, today’s continuation of inflammatory statements from Russia has lead me to readdress the Syrian issue before I can get back to Pakistan and India.

Perhaps in the next day or two, I will do a more complex review of where things stand in Syria.  After tracking this event for over five years, many issues remain the same, but the intent of some of the outside players have taken a potential ominous turn. For now, I will stick with the hot topic, Aleppo and the pending ground action.

Does the Syrian government see the significance of regaining control of Aleppo, or what is left of it? Yes.

Does Tsar see the battle for Aleppo as an indicator of Russia’s actions in Syria? Yes.

Does the West / US / really have any viable options for influencing that pending ground assault in Aleppo? No!

So, who holds the upper hand on Aleppo? Yep. The Tsar.

Are the Iranians, Syrians, and Russians in lockstep over the issue of Aleppo? No.

Does the West / US / understand how to leverage this superficial alliance between Iran, Syria and Russia? No! That is why the advantage is on the Russian / Assad side, well, the Russian side at least.

Just how damaging is this Aleppo issue in terms of Russian / Western / US relationships? Let’s put it this way, the US is talking far tougher than any of its Allies, with the exception of England. To Europe, the pending battle for Aleppo will only have one impact on them, the assurance of more Human waves heading to Europe.

Some are wondering why the battle for Aleppo is so emotional for the US. Why are such harsh words coming out of DC? What has happened that would lead a progressive, passive administration to talk about pending body bags full of Russians being shipped back to Moscow? What changed that has the US making statements such as, “all options are on the table”? Is Aleppo really that important? Are the numbers killed in the past two weeks really that horrific? Should we compare the killings in Central Africa in several ongoing conflicts, what makes Aleppo unique? By the way, under the leadership of Bill Clinton, an estimated 300,000 people were massacred in Central Africa in less than four months. Remember, according to Bill Clinton, he was the first real “Black President” in the US. Sarcasm? You decide.

Is the US administration so frustrated by being outmaneuvered by the Tsar time and time again that a professional approach is breaking down? Is the US “losing it ‘cool”? I would suggest that is exactly what is taking place.  As of today, the official mouthpiece of the Tsar, Sputnik, has painted a picture for its readers, Russian readers, of the US threatening Russia to her face! 

Is conflict between the US and Russia actually possible? Could the US and Russia come to blows over something as trivial as Aleppo? Before you say “no”, you must factor in a deadly combination.

A few weeks back, I commented on the dangers of frustrated passive governments perceiving they are being taken advantage of, being pushed around and having their compassionate temperament used against them with the end state of being made to look like fools.  Have you ever noticed how passive people can suddenly become engaged in an instant and the explanation is, “they were pushed over the edge. They were push too far”.

So, ingredient number one: Frustration, enduring, embarrassing frustration!

What is the other ingredient?  Panic!

Is the US administration near panic over the Russians actions in the Middle East? A little over a year ago, the Tsar decided to enter the Syrian conflict and by doing so, begin to realign the entire region’s balance. Turkey is now less of an Allie of the West than at any time in the past 100 years. Europe is on the verge of tossing out every progressive government in the EU with the human wave from Syria being the central cause. The South China Sea is not an issue of a Russian, Chinese Alliance. Have nearly eight years of US foreign policy lost at sea created a page in history that will mark the Obama administration as a disaster in world history? Has the perceived conflict between the US Department of State and Department of Defense exposed the administration’s leadership crisis?

The story goes, last week, the US Secretary of State argued for armed conflict by the US in Syria and the US Department of Defense disagreed with passion. The US Secretary’s comment was, “I lost the argument”. Now, think about that. John Kerry argued for conflict? Conflict with who? When did John K become a military planning expert? When did he develop the skills need to identify proper targeting? What did he argue should be attacked? Syrian Airbase? Airbases that have Russians working on them?  What did he argue the Tsar’s reaction would be? Would he take the losses and just say, “Ok, I give. I’m going home now”! The guy who Tiger hunts with his shirt off? 

Panic. Are these signs of panic and Frustration?

Can panic and frustration lead to conflict? The Russian are reporting the US is going to act in Syria. If they believe it and are stating it in public, what is their plan to respond? That is what you will not hear.

Is this just about Aleppo?

Has the ship lost at sea finally become a shipwreck?

I hope Donald Trump’s taxes and Hillary’s trustworthiness are not the only things people are paying attention to. 

SAUDI’S 2030 VISION. WHAT IS IT AND WILL THE REST OF THE WORLD SUPPORT IT?

Now, before you ask, “what in the world is he talking about tonight and how did he get to this topic”, let me explain why I believe what I’m about to talk about is not only important, but I would say critical to finding a way out of the crisis that is now the Middle East.

Today, I was talking with a young man who lives in Kuwait. If there is a model for what the future could hold for the whole region, he is it. Young, 20 years old. In College. Wise enough to know he is at a point in his life where listening is more important than speaking. He has begun to understand the value of compromise without compromising those things that are important to each of us, his values and beliefs. He has ambition, but not a lust for power and wealth. How I’ve come to know him is not important. The fact that I believe he is the prototype of what it will take to truly bring social and economic stability to the region that is important. In short, I am honored to have such a fine young man as an acquaintance. By the way, I know another twenty year old that is inspiring. He is my oldest Son. It fills me with optimism to talk to young men like the two of them pushing forward in different parts of the world.

My young Kuwaiti friend and I were talking about opportunities in the region and what was worth paying attention to. The topic of the day was the Saudi 2030 concept. If you have not heard of it and odds are most of you have not, I’ve attached a link to news story that address the plan.

 If you read this link and or search the internet, you will end up asking yourself one basic question, “Why”?  What is propelling Saudi to take what many consider the most dramatic economic transformation plan ever attempted in the world. Sound dramatic, well, keep searching the web and you will find several economic experts who categorize the 2030 vison in just that frame of thought, “dramatic”.

Why? That’s a valid question and as such, let me make an attempt to explain “why”.   Let me start with asking my own question. Can any nation sustain its relevancy in the world based upon a single source economy? Can Saudi Arabia be where it is today 100 years from now, if the nation continues to only revolve around oil?

So, is the 2030 about national survival? For the most part yes. Does the success of this plan guarantee Saudi’s future? Nothing is guaranteed in life other than death!

Is there anything more important to good governance than survival?

Survival! An interesting word. Whose vision of survival should we use? When everything is going great and those in government are rewarded by a gratified public, survival means keeping the public “gratified”. If the main ingredient for maintaining this “gratified” sentiment is a single source item, in this case oil, and government knows that item is finite in nature, then what? How do you maintain the “gratified” state? By the way, in many parts of the modern world, wove together by social media, the word “gratified” is translated into “stability”! How does a current government keep their society stable? In the end, there are basically two ways. They can beat them into constant submission, good luck with that one in the 21^st century world of social media. The second and more logical path, although unfortunately, many governments chose the first course, is to security, equality, education and most importantly, economic stability.

 Years ago, I had a conversation with a very wise man on the issue of the Israel, Palestine conflict. He made one of the most profound statements and it has stuck with me to this day. “If young men had to get up in the morning to go to a job that provided a good life for their families, if jobs gave them the chance to have a family, if hope was based on a salary and not the inflammatory words of old men or guns, then the conflict would be in a courtroom and not in the streets”! Yep. The whole point was about stability! Is stability, gratification the desired outcome of Saudi? Is it not the desire of every nation?

Saudi’s future leadership, one in particular, has developed a formula for the long-term survival of the nation.  Not only is survival a key point of the 2030 plan, but growth. With growth comes stability and with stability comes gratification.

Now that we believe the issue behind this bold vison / plan is the survival of Saudi and it’s growth as a nation going into the 21^st century, how do the visionary leaders, who  came up with the plan, make it become reality? As the old saying goes, “The Devil is in the details”!  What are the “details”?

If you read the complete news release from the Saudi government, you will notice most of the “details” stay at a very strategic level. Areas of importance are framed, but working level “details” are delibertly left out. As you can guess, as soon as many skeptics read the 2030 plan, the first reaction is typical. “ It all sounds great, but how do they really plan on accomplishing this vison”? The other predictable comment is not far behind. “Saudi has no capability to make such a massive shift. It has no true desire to let the government release power in so many different areas”.  Skeptics attacked this plan from day one. Global economic “experts” were questioning the size and magnitude of such an event. One of the most common reactions was, “it’s only 14 years away”! Is the outside world skeptical? Yes. Does that mean it cannot happen? As long as the Saudi leadership doesn’t listen to them, the answer is up to them.

Can it work? Can the 2030 plan actually transform Saudi Arabia away from an oil based, government controlled economy? Yes. I say yes, because of one major advantage the worldwide, economic experts forgot to take into account. What choice does Saudi have? The oil will not last forever. The world will move away from oil based energy. Technology will move mankind forward. This plan is not a ship that Saudi may or may not decide to set sail on. The oil based ship is sinking. It may not sink soon or it may sink suddenly, but it is sinking. A future leader in Saudi understands this. He has taken the time to map out an alternative course and that course is based on change, real change. Change that doesn’t require his nation to compromise its beliefs, but simply to find hope in a new future.

Hope, Saudi has come up with a plan that at the end of the day inspires. It calls for out of the box thinking and that thinking starts with the government providing the example by letting go of traditional issues that have been under government control.

It will take youth, and determination to make this vison come to reality. It will not go exactly has planned, no plan ever does. Things will change and that is where the power of compromise becomes so vital. Others will see this plan as a threat. Regional nations may see the Saudi plan as the blueprint and inspire similar plans.

One thing is certain, Saudi is going to spend a great deal of time and energy and money on attempting to make this vison a reality. Youthful leadership will be the key.

So you see, my young friend in Kuwait and Saudi are a lot alike.

Here is the challenge, the West can ether support the changing Saudi Arabia and thus regain a great deal of the trust that has been lost in the past eight years. Or, the West can have its economic “experts” continue to second guess and thus handicap real change in Saudi. As for me, I’m going to support 2030. I will be monitoring this process carefully for as long as I can. 

At the end of World War I, the West set into motion a roadmap for the entire region that has lead to disaster. If Saudi is setting sail on a new course, the odds are many in the region are going to be willing to follow.

Like any new plan, the preparation and the early stages are key. If vison leads to hope, then hope can lead to gratification and in the end………….stability.

I’ll be watching!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-25/key-elements-of-saudi-arabia-s-blueprint-for-life-post-oil

SUING SAUDI……… WAS THIS THE RIGHT DECISION?

I must admit, I wasn’t that surprised when the story broke. I also wasn’t surprised the US mainstream media was more interested in the fact that President Obama had been vetoed and not cognizant of what the repercussions of this decision may be.

So, let’s take a look at what the repercussions might be and yes, there will be repercussions.

First off, there is a reason the US President was against this law and that in itself should have been a warning sign. You, see, President Obama is not exactly on the Saudi most favored leader list. His actions in the region for the past eight years have almost singlehandedly driven a wedge between the US / West / and Saudi. Now, I know, some in the US truly believe this relationship with Saudi has outlived its usefulness. Many here believe the relationship was a marriage of convenience based on oil and that was true from day one! Well, it was and is and the resentment for that being the pillar of the two countries’ interaction is felt on both sides. “If it wasn’t for our oil, the US would not care about Saudi”. That is what you will hear if you have the opportunity to speak to the general public in Saudi.

A relationship built on oil and the access to a region based on oil, oil that couldn’t be allowed to fall into Soviet / Communist control. Yes. The relationships in the Middle East were tools for the Cold War and again, every member in the region understood this.

Okay, back to the issue of the US president’s veto. So what is it the President is privy to that made him fearful of this law? Why would he care given his actions have said, “I’m leaving you”, for the past seven years? Remember those intelligence reports I was addressing last night? Think about it for a minute. At some point in time, the US President may have said, “what happens if this law passes”? What answer was given that made him risk the embarrassment of an overturned veto? How bad of a threat could that be? Here a just a few scenarios and every one of them is more than possible.

Taking oil off the dollar standard:

               Something the Dragon and the Tsar have been contemplating for several years now. What     impact would this have on the US economy? Most predict it would be dramatic. Would this risk the overall economic status of the Dragon and the Tsar? Yes. Would it be worth the risk? That       depends on what the desired end-state is. How could this new law put that movement into        motion? Rumor has it the only descending vote to move oil off the dollar standard has been      Saudi. Is it because they are loyal to the US? No. It’s because a large proportion of their                investments are based on the dollar. Does this vote by the US change the Saudi mindset? If            intelligence indicates that, then you may now understand why the President was pushing back.

Realignment of regional partners:

               The Saudi military is almost completely dependent on the US military and the manufactures of               US military hardware. How hard would it be for the Saudi’s to move away from the US military             support? Hard! Might they truly start the wheels in motion after all that has happened between    them and the US in the past seven years? Ports of call for the Dragon and the Tsar, is that what              the President was told? Some of that has already taken place, but at a level that is nothing more than eye candy. Could this law be a final blow to the fragile relationship between the US and   Saudi militaries? So, how many BILLIONS do you think the US defense contractors are willing to                give away for the sake of a few families being able to sue Saudi? Sound harsh? Yes, but when it comes to Billions of dollars and US military manufacturing, harsh is an acceptable word. By the            way, how stunned was the US when a much closer partner, a key NATO partner, said “no” to      using its land to invade Iraq? Yes. Things can get that bad. Yes, times change and sometimes the       “change” is not anticipated.  

Turning up the heat, support, in the Syrian conflict:

               Why have the weapons that could dramatically change the image of Russia Air Force being     dominant in Syria not showed up? Why have these weapons not showed up in the hands of the    Sunni fighters that Saudi and “others” support? What would the US President do if he learned that Saudi was contemplating letting these weapons move because they have lost all hope of                the US / West / supporting the nations in the region that were supposed to be friends? Who      takes the blame when suddenly it becomes clear the support for the Sunni fighters has changed       and how does the US President explain to the American people why this change is taking place?   Does he get on TV and say, “I told you so”?

Alright; I could go on and on, but let me make one thing perfectly clear. President Obama is not in good standing with Saudi leadership, most importantly the likely next King. The Saudi “2030” plan is not a dream based on dependency! It is not a concept that was shown to DC for approval. It is an attempt to stave off civil strife and that will require an economy not based on oil. The US relationship with Saudi is completely based on oil.

Does Saudi really still need the US? The US feels it no longer needs Saudi and so today, a law was signed.

What comes next? My hunch is the US will not have to wait too long to find out.

https://sputniknews.com/us/20160930/1045851195/riyadh-warns-jasta-consequences.html

PAKISTAN AND INDIA…..INDIA AND CHINA…. AND NONE OF THEM ARE GOING TO CALL DC.

Yesterday, I alluded to a few events that are looming on the horizon and will have little impact by ether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. Yes, when crisis’s of the magnitude mentioned here come about, all major world leaders are involved, but just how much influence can be exhibited, that becomes the question. Here is a simpler way of making this point.

To what level has the Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump camp looked at the tension between the Dragon and India? What has been reviewed  on the topic of India and Pakistan? Are these two topics off the political radar? Yes.

Is that a mistake?

Well, how many voters in the US are going to be influenced by ether candidate addressing such issues? Yep….none! Is it any wonder the two topics are “off the radar”? 

Okay, so what is the point here? Why even bring this up?

Simple, both of these topics show just how little influence the next US President will have on preventing these issues from becoming global events? As a reminder, the US was not involved in the beginning of the First World War and it wasn’t involved in the beginning of the Second World War. Yes, I admit, the actions of the US before both wars helped set the stage for both of them, but the US was not the only nation that made mistakes leading to these wars.  Will it be “involved” in the beginning of the next world war? History does have a way of repeating itself.

Let’s be honest for a minute. Just how much impact does the typical US voter believe the next President should have on the tensions between these three nations? What are the expectations of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump when it comes to external tensions, tensions that are not aimed at the US?

Well, let me explain how the informative phase works. Soon after the elections are over, a series of events begins to take place designed to get the incoming President up to speed on matters that are or might impact the US. This is a complex process and unfortunately, it doesn’t always execute at the level the typical US citizen would expect. Opinions, new staff members and advisors all contribute to making the process far more ineffective than it should be. Inbound “Opinions” are often the most dangerous part of the concept.

At some point in time, ether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will receive a series of very classified briefings with details only one of them will be accustomed to. Now, before you think of that as a plug for Hillary Clinton, let me stop you right there. I spent a great deal of my career working inside the world that Hillary Clinton chose to abuse. My opinion of what she did is too unprofessional for me to spell it out in this post.  Somewhere in those briefings will be the topic of these three nations and the tensions between them. How much attention will be given to that information is dependent upon what the severity of the information is. Odds are, the relationships between three nations in question will not lead to any true policy development, at least not in these initial briefings. So, at the end of the day, the topic may come up, but the level of concern will probably just not be there.

It’s February of 2017, President Trump is contacting all the concrete companies that are willing to start the Great Wall of America. If not, then President Clinton is reading the riot act to the First Husband on what she will do to him if he has yet another episode with women. In the morning briefing, the President is briefed that the situation between the Chinese and India is getting worse. It seems the Indian government has agreed to joint naval exercises with Japan and Taiwan. Intelligence indicates the Dragon believes the US is helping instigate India’s involvement in the region. Pressure is increasing rapidly and the situation has gone from, something that you told me right after the election to, “Mr. President, this is a lead issue this morning”! “What are our options? What should we do”?

This is the world that ether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will inherit. Events are going to take place that are completely off the Radar in September of 2016. 

There will be events that are  unprepared for and not predicted. 

Influence and the reduced capability to use influence as a tool prior to open conflict. That is the price the US is paying and will continue to pay for the death of American Exceptionalism.

Should the US be the world Police Force? No.

If statecraft is conducted correctly, “World Police Force” concepts are not necessary.

So, why did I chose China, India and Pakistan?

China understands the power of littoral shipping lanes. The US understands the importance of them to the survival of the Western economy. India? Well, India understands all too well their economic future is directly tied to these lanes.

As for Pakistan, history will write a chapter in the future school books on the topic of Little Countries obtaining a great power. A power they were too unstable to own. The next chapter about a “flash” in the middle of the day or night, may not involve a Dragon, a Bear, an Eagle or Even a Tiger. It may start with a morning briefing for a new US President.  

HILLARY CLINTON AND DONALD TRUMPS “OTHER” CHALLENGES.

Yesterday, I finished my review of what both US Candidates will face from two real, external threats to the US.  As scary as that two part conversation was, the possibilities of other significant events taking place are more than just real. They are going to happen.   

So, what other significant challenges from outside the US will a Hillary or Donald administration face and what impact will their differing approaches create?

Now, just when you might think this next conversation will not involve the previous two key players, the Dragon and the Tsar, just remember, no international event takes place without a reaction / influence from these two. Truth be known, some of the topics I will cover are most likely already in the Dragon and Tsar’s play book; especially the Tsar. Proxy events. That is what I am referring to. But, even it’s not a “proxy event”, you can bet the two key players will shape the issue once it is known.

North Korea:

An interesting topic as it falls into the category of both a proxy event and a true crazy eddy that in reality not even the Dragon or the Tsar can be assured of the outcome.

So, how might the North Korean issue impact the Clinton or Trump administration? Has the Little Madman designed his own, “first hundred day” event / challenge for the new US President and if so, does anyone know about it?

Does it matter to him who wins? Probably not!

This mentally unstable child has one goal on his mind and the difference between Hillary and Donald may not even exist in his eyes. His goal is to force the West to respect him and the nation he rules. His will to obtain this respect is without question the single thing that makes him dangerous. Is he capable of instigating a war on the Korean Peninsula? Yes.

 Do his military Commander understand that? Yes.

Could they be leveraged to prevent this from happening if they truly believed it was going to take place? Yes!

Does Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump understand that? I doubt it! Will they have people around them that can map out such a possible course of action in a crisis? Only, if someone on the team knows who to pick.  You have to know this is an option before you can chose the right people to build the plan.

The North Korean issue is not going to go away anytime soon. The US knows that, the Russians know that and the Chinese know it. Doing a dirty deal with key North Korean military leaders has to be a plan of ether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. Both are well versed in the art of “dirty deals”, but do they understand how to pick the right people to put such a dirty deal together? 

The North Korean issue will not be pushed to the sidelines over the issue of trade. The little madman in North Korea is not interested in what is good for the Tsar or the Dragon. He does understand he needs friends, but being ready to portray their wishes or just ignore those same friends, well, that is a challenge that Hillary or Donald will have to come to terms with. Here is the last takeaway on the topic of North Korea. Although the Tsar and the Dragon have a history of manipulating North Korea, their current leader doesn’t cotton well to being told what to do or even given advice on the topic of his relationship with the West.

Bottom line; North Korea is an issue that is running out of time. How ironic the can her husband kicked down the road in 1994 has come rolling up to her doorstep!  

As for Trump. Well, he needs to be careful in what he says and how he says it. Words mean something to the little madman in North Korea. My advice to Trump; when it comes to the topic of North Korea, saying less is better. He will need to sit down with his Casino buddy and see if the Tsar is willing to build a joint answer to the North Korean event. That may not make the Dragon happy, but then again, the Dragon may come to the table as well. It’s not like China has the best interest of North Korea on its list of priorities. Leverage the Tsar’s desire to work with Trump. That is a plan that might just work.

The Middle East:

Does Hillary repair the US’s relationship with the GCC members, most notably, the Saudis?

Does Donald?

Make no doubt about it, the relationship was severely damaged over the past eight years. Yes, I know, many currently believe that “relationship” should be ended or greatly reduced, but before you vote for continuing this reduction, think about the concept of “vacuum”?

The Middle East is now fragmented to a point that is unprecedented since it’s reconstruction at the end of World War I.  By the way, I’ve said this before and I will say it again. The borders and reflagging that took place in the Middle East was doomed from the day the papers were signed.

The nations in the region are unbalanced and desperate to forge new alliances! The vacuum issue is center stage in this conversation.

Rumor is, the Saudi, Hillary relationship is far more stable than the current US administration. How might a Hillary Clinton administration approach the Middle East? To say, “it can’t be any worse than what is taking place now” is inaccurate. The Tsar’s vision now involves the region and having Hillary Clinton show up and place pressure on that vision, well, that will have repercussions.  Changing the course of the US’s relationship with the Middle East will not execute according to plan. The Russians are there and they have no intention of leaving.

What is Donald Trump’s vision for the Middle East? Does he really have one? How will he address the issue of Syria, Turkey, and Iran? To be fair, the same list holds true for Hillary, but right now, I’m addressing “The Donald”!

I understand he truly believes a few retired Generals will pave the way for his policy in the region, but I would also warn him, many of the mistakes in the region were designed by Generals! Simply saying, “ I have some great Generals working the issue”, that’s not going to bring closure to the issue. The problems in the region are far more complex than that answer provides. Let me give you a hint at my theme here. Trump is going to have to sit down with someone and figure this whole regional crisis out. He is going to have to do that with the quiet support of the leader of the GCC and the Nation of Israel. He is going to have to have this “meeting” and make it very clear to the Ottoman Sultan, the future of the region is not for the Ottomans to decide.

Yes, he is going to have to sit with the Tsar!

Someone tell me again why it is so terrible that Trump continues to talk to issue of working with Putin?

Does he need to overlook some of the actions of the Tsar, such as the Tsar having his chief political rival murdered just outside the Kremlin? My response? Really? Should I make you a list of the despots and murders the US has “worked with”?

Okay, two more areas defined. North Korea and the Middle East.

Tomorrow, let me take a shot at a few nether Hillary or Donald  may be able to impact with two of them leading to real, worldwide calamity.  

HILLARY OR DONALD. THE FIRST HUNDRED DAYS FROM THE EYES OF THE ENEMY.

The typical discussions of what may take place in, “the first hundred days” will undoubtedly come up within days of the US election being held. The other “typical” issue with these discussions is the fact that most of the topics are, well, typical! The Relationship with the House. The relationship with Congress. The Economic policies of the new administration and so on and so on and so on! Some of the experts may even touch on the topic of how might the US’s enemies “test” the new President. The problem becomes when these “experts” cover such a topic for the sake of making sure the covered all their bases. “Economic issues” Check. “Relationship with the House”. Check. “Discussion about the US’s enemies” Check!

Once all the “checks” have been achieved by the “experts” you might want to see if they ever really said anything of value.  Here is the issue, most of these “experts” whip up a great editorial or a few spicy comments for the major networks, but do they really do any homework on what the enemies of the US may actually have planned for the person who has won? Short answer. No!

Last night, I reviewed the major issues that both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will face from both the Tsar and the Dragon.  As I had previously stated, you can bank on the fact that both of these countries will have anticipated their major issues with both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. How will they respond? What will the initial interaction be based upon? These are the questions the “experts” may address, but to what level becomes the question. 

Just in case the “experts” don’t get this part of the typical post-election process right, let me take a shot at the issue.

Donald Trump’s first hundred days with the Tsar:

Is the highly anticipated love affair actually going to take place? It’s the story the US Democratic Party has been telling for weeks now. Could it actually come true? Could Donald Trump and the Tsar Become friends? Let me do what many academic “experts” love to do. Let me answer that question with a question.

Does it matter?

Or, how about, “what would it hurt”?

I’m still puzzled how the same party that came up with the concept of a “Reset Button” is now trying everything in its power to terrorize the American Public by painting a picture of Donald and Vlad!

Will the first hundred days of a Trump / Putin relationship really be a bad thing for the US? Hint, it may be a bad thing for those who have counted on the anti-American stance in the Middle East! It may be a bad thing for those that don’t carry their load when it comes to paying the bills for NATO.  It may even be bad news for the progressive governments in Europe, for what little time they have left themselves.

Yes, the first hundred days of a Donald Trump administration may bring about a whole new course with the US and Russia. Before anyone in the US panics, let’s wait to see what actually takes place.

Donald Trump’s fist hundred days with the Dragon:

Well, here is where the wheels could come off the Donald Trump wagon. Most of the people who are going to vote, at least I hope most of them, in the upcoming election are well aware of Trumps drumbeat on the issue of fair trade with China. For Trump to not address the issue of trade with China in the first one hundred days of his administration would be a disaster. His rise to power was based on being a nonpolitical, nonconformist candidate and for him to step into the White House and suddenly start saying the typical political backtrack lines like, “this issue is far more complicated than many realize”. You see, that is code for, “I lied to my base during the campaign trail”! Do that and within the first one hundred days of his presidency, he is already just like all the rest of them. If this takes place, the US Democratic Party will foam at the mouth!

What will the Dragon’s priority be for a Donald Trump administration? The Masters of detailed planning will start the relationship based on what event?

Here is what Donald Trump better hope for. He better hope the first real test of his relationship with the Dragon is based on the South China Sea crisis and not economic trade!  Remember, the Chinese don’t buy the fair trade rhetoric nearly as much as some of the “experts” think they will. In the end, they now nobody in the US wants a 1500 dollar IPhone. They love cheap labor in China. They love items that are made from sweatshops full of underpaid poor people. Both US parties love low labor cost and the desire to wreck that relationship is not going to take center stage, not from the Dragon’s viewpoint.

Trumps pressure will be based on “Fair-trade”. The Dragon’s will not!

Who will decide what the first hundred days with Dragon look like? The Dragon will.

The issue will be the South China Sea. The issue will be, “where do you stand on this Mr. President and do you understand just how serious we are on the topic”? 

Here is the scary part. A Trump administration may want to avoid all the promises made on the campaign trail, but are they going to be ready for the Test? The real test? The South China Sea crisis will be on the table from day one!

Hillary Clinton’s first hundred days with the Tsar:

If you are a US citizen or you  live in Europe, the day after the US election is over is the day the Tsar’s plan for Hillary, whatever it may be, will go into motion. Something tells me, he may not wait that long. He may set events into motion that she must deal with from day one! What events you may ask? Well, he has a few very ugly options that would impact Europe and or the Middle East. He is not going to give her a minutes rest. He doesn’t like her. He doesn’t respect her and he doesn’t trust her. There has even been a persistent rumor, one the Tsar believes and that is all that matters, that Hillary Clinton would work to see the Tsar fall from power! Now, let me stop here for a minute. If anyone reading this can think of something more dangerous for the safety of the world than the Putin thinking the next US leader is out to remove him, then I would like to know what that event is.

Will the Tsar wait for Hillary Clinton to shape the US’s relationship with Russia? No way in Hell!

Will the Tsar be prepared to push her to the limits from day one? I would bank on it.

The first one hundred days of a Hillary Clinton Presidency will not come easy if the Tsar has anything to say about it. This could truly be a dangerous time.

Hillary Clinton’s fist hundred days with the Dragon:

Without the fireworks of campaign rhetoric built on bashing the Dragon over Fair-trade, it might seem Hillary’s firs one hundred days with the Dragon might be much less tenuous than that of Trumps.  Well, that might sound plausible, but for one important detail. Hillary Clinton is seen as the “Hawk” of the two Candidates and her views on the South China Sea’s issue are well known.

Does a Hillary Clinton administration need to push the issue of the South China Seas? No.

Might she have to convince those in the region, facing the breath of the Dragon, where she stands on the issue? The odds are that will take place before she walks back into the White House.  Has she communicated with the nations of the region where she stands on the issue and does that stance differ from what she has said on the campaign trail? We may not know, but don’t underestimate the capabilities of the Dragon’s intelligence in the region. It is very possible they know if there is a difference between her campaign words and her conversations with regional leadership. I just hope her real understanding of secured communications is better than she has let the American people believe.

How will her first one hundred days with the Dragon go? It’s hard to tell.

The Dragon is not one to typically “test the waters”. If they have done their homework, intelligence homework, like I believe they have, they already know where she stands!  By the way, I hope she understand “delete” is not a problem for the Dragon’s team!

Tomorrow, I will take a hack at the other issues that might impact a Hillary / Donald Presidency and I won’t stick to the first one hundred days.   

  

US ELECTION CHALLENGES: THE DRAGON, THE TSAR, AND THE SULTAN. WHO IS THE RIGHT CHOICE?

I’m not in the habit of posting purely political conversations and the good news is, I’m not going to start now! But, the pending US election is more than just critical to the future of an unbalanced world. It has the potential to set into motion a series of events that not even the US would be able to prevent from dragging the world further in to crisis.

Before I travel down this “who is the best person to face the challenges of the US’s interaction with the rest of the world” path, let me do a few simple scene setters.

In 2009, the US, a war weary nation after eight years of conflict following September 11^th 2001, decided to elect an individual not based upon his ability balance the needs of the US with what was taking place in the rest of the word, but upon raw emotional feelings! Yes, the fact of the matter is, the US placed a person in the most powerful position in the world based on “feeling good” about voting for that person.

Was this the right person at the time to place in the White House? Well, as many seem to think today, there probably was a “right person” at that time as well.

“We need to sign it and then read it”, was the mentality of the US and the party that was in power at the time of this election. It seemed the rhythm was, don’t worry if it makes sense, it feels good!

In 2009 the US President began what many dubbed, “the world apology tour”! At that moment in time, very few understood the global repercussion of the US suddenly turning off the concept of American Exceptionalism.  The law of Second and Third Oder Effects and or The Law of Unintended Consequences were not on the radar of the White House or the party in power. Some spoke of the vacuum the US President was creating, but those words did not resonate with the rest of the nation who was waiting to see who the big name was going to be on Dancing with the Stars. Yes, the US population was clueless about its own future and the impact it would have on the world.

So, scene setter number one:   The Death of American Exceptionalism.

Earlier, I mentioned the vacuum effect, so let me explain, but not drag this scene setter too far out.

Once it was established the US was going to pull back from being a world leader, that it was going to become an “equal partner”, those that had no intention of being an “equal” set into motion plans, both hastily designed and well designed, to take advantage of the US withdraw!  

How the US administration could have possible come to the conclusion there would be no vacuum and somehow everything would become some utopic “group think”, well, I’m afraid the historians a hundred years from now will depict this whole journey as the beginning of the end for the US. You see, once you arbitrarily decide to leave the world stage, you don’t retain the right to just walk back on to it when you like.

As I mentioned, the vacuum was filled predominately by two groups. Those who had a plan and those who quickly came up with one. Here are the examples.

The Tsar: He had a preexisting plan and he is still driving towards its outcome. A plan that is so emotional to him that it’s derailing could plunge the world into war. (Remember this when I get to the topic of the current US Candidates).  

The Dragon / China! Now, there is a plan that is a thousand times more complex than the Tsar’s and one this was designed long before the 2009 world tour began. Yes, the Chinese anticipated an apology tour.  The individual passion behind this post US world dominance plan was not and is not anywhere near the level of the Tsar’s, but’s the desire to see fruition is every bit as dangerous as the Tsar’s plan. “Death by a thousand cuts”.

Okay, here is an example of a “quick plan”. It’s no mystery that Egodan / The Sultan/ believes he is the power figure that will bring the Ottoman Empire back to thrown with authority  of  the whole Middle East, with the exception of Israel, an Allie he needs but doesn’t want to talk about. His anger over the Europe’s viewpoint towards the Turks has infuriated the Sultan for years. Without the Turkish military, the European militaries would have to double / triple their manpower commitment to NATO. Yep, Turkey was cheap labor and the US paid for the equipment. Europe sat fat and happy and wouldn’t give the Turk’s any share in the economic growth coming from the EU. So, this set his anger, but his anger and resentment didn’t equate into a “plan”.  Egodan did not design the new Ottoman Empire plan until after the Middle East began to fall apart. By 2011, he began to understand that with the US walking away from any organized strategy for the region and Europe being frightened to death about the Human wave that may come from a region in crisis, not to mention Africa, he began to see the “vacuum” and how he could propel the Ottoman Empire back into modern history. As complex as the Dragon? Not even close. As compassionate as the Tsar’s plan? Close, but then again, the Tsar’s plan and the Sultan’s plan didn’t match up and that would lead to two major power leaders edging towards conflict. Reminder here; you can’t leave the stage and then try to walk back on later down the road. This is exactly what the US has done when it comes to Turkey. In the end, the Sultan’s plan was poorly thought out, but full of emotional power with a mentally unstable planner.

These are just three examples of plans based upon the vacuum created by the death of American Exceptionalism. Many others are out there as well and some of the most dangerous ones could very well be the very ones the US is not paying attention to.

So, scene setter number two: The Vacuum planners!

Okay. So the world was changed by the sudden change in philosophy held by the US and some where more than happy to this change take place. Some, where and still are in a dead panic of the whole eight year journey. 

The undeniable fact is this. The world was not made a better place by losing its most senior Adult figure. The world family was not ready for this departure and the events of the past eight years are a clear indication of that fact.  

Can the US “walk back on to the stage”?

In just a few weeks, the US will elect their next leader. The leader who will inherit eight years of the apology tour.  Eight years of wanting just to be a member of the team, not the team leader. A team that was simply not ready for their leader to walk away.

No. the answer is no! The US cannot walk back on to the world stage with Presidential hand waving!  Some won’t listen and some will do everything in their power to keep that from taking place to include conflict. Yes, a few would welcome the encore, but not to the level that it would bring about a successful comeback.  So, no, it won’t work.

If it won’t work, then what is the real value of this pending election?

Who is the best option for the US and who is the best option for the rest of the world?

I’ve heard the media and the talking heads babble as they think they are addressing these issues.
Here is reality they simply don’t want to come to terms with.  There is no such thing as, “the rest of the world”.  The world is so fragmented, so self-serving that only a Passive, liberal, ideological fool would talk in terms of “The World”! That was a song thirty years ago! The “world Opinion” of one candidate in the US, ether one, doesn’t exist! There is NO WORLD OPINION!

If you accept there is no such thing as a world opinion, then the next logical question may be, “who is the best candidate for the important issues in the world”? A question that at its core value comes down to, “who is best for the US from the US’s viewpoint”? Well imagine that. A concern by US citizens that is not based upon “World Opinion”!

What really should matter to the US voters? Well, here is my opinion and it’s an opinion based upon a somewhat negative opinion of both candidates.

Who can do the most harm to the US? Now, before US readers fly off the handle with the standard party line response, regardless of what party you are affiliated with, let me just say, think before you answer.  Challenge yourself to see if you are truly aware of what the dangers are to you and your country? Who can do the US the most harm? That is my first question to you.

Hillary Clinton and the Tsar:

What is the relationship between the Tsar and Hillary Clinton? If you guessed poor to dangerous, you are correct. You see, back when she and the current President of the US came up with the laughable, “reset button” plan,  both of them never stopped to understand something about nation state interactions. Nations that are not getting along are like couples who are not getting along. Just because one decides to change their ways, that doesn’t mean the other side does. You can damage a relationship to the point it will not work. A partner can just decide they no longer need you. The reset button concept was location stop for the World Apology Tour and Hillary was the Tour Manager!

Does the Tsar have a willingness to change his vision for Mother Russia based upon Hilary coming to power in the US? No!

Does the Tsar respect her? No!

Does he fear her? No!

Those two answers are a very dangerous combination!

Hillary is seen as a Hawk to her own party and undoubtedly, she will have a different approach to those who snub her than her old Boss. Will this make the Tsar change his ways? No!   

To the Tsar, Hillary is part of the Word Apology Tour and that makes her weak. Suddenly showing up and depicting herself as an Alpha Female, well, that’s not going to impact the Tsar. If you are a supporter of hers, I’m sorry, but that is reality. She is weak in his eyes and she will not be able to change that.

Why is that important?  Think about it. What happens when someone gets upset with being labeled weak, soft, scared and they don’t like it or worse yet, they are embarrassed in front of others? Yep, they overreact! They strike out or respond is someway that is unplanned and poorly thought out.

Bottom line. Can Hillary Clinton deal with the methodical, calculating KGB trained head of a nuclear nation? Can she do this post American Exceptionalism, an event she lead the charge on?

  Hillary Clinton and the Dragon:

What is Hillary Clinton’s ability to keep the US safe from the actions of the Dragon? Strangely enough, the world apology tour did not take place with the Dragon. As a matter of fact, the only time the current US administration seemed to have an “In your face” attitude was with the Dragon! “Back to the Pacific”! A concept that astounded me the day I head of it. Who in Washington DC briefed the US President that the US had ever left the Pacific? A question some are still asking. Anyway, Hillary Clinton’s interaction when she was Secretary of State with the Chinese was not as noteworthy as the Reset Button blunder with the Tsar. So, can she solve the South China Sea crisis? By the way, if you think the events taking place in the South China Sea do not rise to the level of a crisis, then you need to read what the Chinese press and bloggers are putting out. Trust me. The South China Sea control issue ranks up there as one of the top two threats to armed conflict.

What is the Dragon’s opinion of Hillary Clinton? What is there perception of her? Has anyone in the US bothered to find out or are they just going to let give some 30 sec answer during one of the debates and that is if the question even comes up! Here is what I will tell you and I will say it again when I look at the other candidate. The one thing every US citizen can count on is the fact the Dragon has designed a “plan” for her becoming President. They have designed a plan in case Donald Trump wins as well. This is what they do and they do it better than anyone in the world. They plan. The plan to a degree unmatched in the world of nation state relations.

So, the final answer on the issue of Hillary and the Dragon could be this. We will have to wait to see once she wins the election.  That my friends is just how complex the Dragon really is!

So, the two issue that could truly endanger the future of the US are identified. The Tsar and the Dragon. Now I know the Sultan and others might be resentful they were not factored into the discussion, but the fact of the matter is, they can’t end the US as a nation. They can impact it, but they can’t completely alter the future of the US, at least not yet!

Donald Trump and the Tsar:

When I first heard Donald Trump was once again going to play like he was running for the Presidency of the US, I thought to myself,” here comes another one of his stunts”. Like most, I thought this was not even worth paying attention to. Then it happened, it dawned on me what was taking place. For years the US conservative talk shows had ranted about the uprising of the “backbone of the nation”! Several years of constant conversation on the issue of the US  Republican Party not living up to the promises that had been made. Countless stories of the arrogance of the leadership of that party, virtually ignoring the wishes of the very people who supported them, voted for them.  That is what I had been hearing and that now seemed to be coming to an explosive conclusion. By the time the US Republican party realized what was going on, the damage was done. The confidence of their supporters was weakened to the point they could not carry the day. Trump was one of the first ones to realize the change that was taking place in the US and I’m not sure the US public should have been surprised by that given his straight forward approach to addressing issues. At the end of the day, when the dust settled, it was clear part of the US population was tired of the same old political cycle. Change. It was not planned. It was not anticipated, but for the US, it is now reality. A percentage of the nation felt so alienated that they have turned to a new form of political leadership. Donald Trump! A Billionaire Businessman who speaks before he thinks!  

As the US has sat and pondered this phenomenal rise to power of Donald Trump, an event that could very well end with him in the White House, it’s important to objectively look at what this means to the one man who also has a rather popular backing and is known for getting his way. Yep. The Tsar.

It’s been said that the Tsar and Donald Trump “know each other”. Donald Trump has talked about “meeting him” in the past. So, how much do they really know each other? Hillary Clinton’s supporters would have the world believe that Donald Trump is practically a Special Agent under the Tsar’s rule. Donald Trump would have the US citizens believe he talked to the Tsar once.  As for me, let me stick to the facts. Facts that can be used to draw your own conclusions with.

Donald Trump was in the Casino business.

The Russian Mob was and is in the Casino business and the Russian Mob is controlled by the Tsar.

The Casino business. A global business. How many global businesses do you know of that do not have a working knowledge of each other when they are both in the same line of work? Does that mean Donald Trump had “meetings” with the Tsar? No. Does that mean that they both understood this shady business and those who were involved in it? Yes. Donald Trumps ability to gather information, intelligence to some of us, on a global scale is unmeasured. But, you can rest assured knowledge is power in the business world and that holds true for the Casino Business!

Does the Tsar respect Donald Trump? Yes. Why shouldn’t he. He was and is a ruthless businessman who goes after what he wants and doesn’t mind breaking a few rules getting there. A trait the Tsar admires. Bottom line, Donald can be ruthless and that gets the Tsar’s respect.

Do they like each other? Short answer, irrelevant. Both of them are not in the business of making decisions based on liking someone.

Does the Tsar see Donald Trump as a threat to the Master Plan for Mother Russia? That will depend on who Donald Trump listens to and surrounds himself with. You can bet the Tsar has dusted off the Donald Trump files and has already started planning for what alterations he may have to make to his Master Plan based upon Donald walking into the White House.  Have a plan… always have a plan. A KGB truism the Tsar will apply to both Hillary and Donald.

Here is the most important question?  When it comes to the Tsar,  will a Donald Trump administration be less dangerous for the US than a Hillary administration?  Yes. Look at one factor besides the personality attributes. Look at Trumps opinion of NATO and Europe. Could the Tsar get better news than to hear Donald Trump say the US’s involvement with NATO may have to be ‘reviewed”? It so upset many of the traditionalist in both US parties that it lead to the Democrats ventrally labeling Trump as a Russian Agent!

What will be the relationship between a Trump administration and the Tsar? One thing is for sure. It will not be as controversial as a Clinton option.

Will Trump conform, given in to economic, military, political pressures when it comes to the Russians? Who knows? Logic show he would, but then again, what has been logical about the whole Trump event?

Donald Trump and the Dragon:

Well, if the scorecard so far looks something like this, Trump on Russian up by one, then the next category may end up as the equalizer.

From day one, Donald Trump’s drumbeat on trade imbalance has been the key to his rise to power.  It’s one of the issues that frightens the US Democratic Party the most. Blue collar, white America has been the breadbasket for the Democratic Party for over a hundred years. But in the last ten years, as the Democrats observed the demographic trends in the US, they seem to have made a conscious decision to move away from the Blue Collar Whites and concentrate on other future trends in voting. Like it or not, Donald Trump has ceased on this issue and now threatens to take away a large enough slice of the old baseline that the Democrats have woken up to panic in some of the swing states.

What message is Donald Trump selling that angers the Dragon? Trade and the injustices of that trade world.

Is that a realistic argument? Well, to a laborer in the US it is and that is who Trump is after. So, does the statement have to make business sense? When has that ever impacted a US Politician’s stance?

Does the threat of making the Chinese and the rest of the trading world play on a level field worry the Chines? Not as much as you might think. Here is why. About two years ago, the Chines began to deliberate economic shift from exportation to internal consumption. Not a great leap, but a gradual ever increasing change that had several, internal desired outcomes for the Chines government. Short answer, more and more, things made in China are being made to sell in China.

If you factor in this movement towards internal consumption in China with the stark reality of the typical US citizen not understanding what would happen, at least in the short term, by placing Trump’s threatened tariffs on imported goods, you would see at least the Chines are not too worried about campaign trial promises.  Here is the interesting part. Trump is a very good businessman so even he knows this is nothing more than campaign trail talk and that makes him sound like a normal US politician, something those who have moved towards him don’t want to see.

How will Donald Trump react to the issue of the South China Sea crisis? This is a far more important topic to the Chinese than trade imbalances and tariffs campaign speeches.  It will be interesting to see if the topic comes up in one of the debates, but my guess is, Donald Trump’s response will be along the lines of, “we need to figure this out. We need to come to some understanding”. He will not beat the war drum and that will be even more peculiar given that is exactly what Hillary Clinton may do. Remember, her goal is to show the US audience on the issue of international threats to the US that she is a Hawk! I know…I know….it’s like this whole US election cycle is turned upside down?

So, as the end of the day. The Chinese are looking for a Donald Trump campaign to talk big on trade and then, after they win, do what every US politician does, change from what they said, to they need to do.  It’s the issue of the South China Sea lanes that will hold the Dragon’s interest and that will take place after the election.

Like with the Hillary Clinton wrap up, the Runner-ups for future interaction with the US simply didn’t rise to the level of true threat to the US existence. I will come back in the next few days and talk to the other issues this election will impact, but the Tsar and the Dragon are the only two that can end the US having the next election.

P.S. Notice I didn’t give an overall scorecard!

That is for each of the US voters to decide. What worries me is how much energy will the typical US voter will put into finding the facts. 

Oh ya.. Football was on today so most of my readers of this post will be in other parts of the world!

I rest my case.